Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 1.
Matthew Freedman uses his projections to highlight his favorite bets to target on the NFL Week 1 slate, including games he's monitoring and more.
Last year I had a very good NFL betting season - the best of my career.
- Spreads, Totals, Moneylines & Teasers: 134-111-3 (+11.9 units)
- In-Season Player/Game Props: 270-210 (+42.9)
- Season-Long Player Props: 33-11 (+20.3)
- Awards/Futures Markets: 3-6 (+10.7)
- Win Totals: 5-1 (+3.9)
Naturally, I plan to regress and be generally terrible this year.
Congratulations on reading this article.
The 2022 version of this piece was robustly magnificent.
In other words, it was too long. Too many tables. Too many bullet points. Too many words. All of it was useful, but not all of it was necessary, especially for the readers who simply wanted quick takeaways.
This year, this piece will be different: Actionably sufficient.
Here’s what you should expect from this article each week.
- My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
- A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
- Some brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a paragraph on each bet).
- Even briefer notes (hopefully) on some games that have my eye, but I haven’t bet yet.
- The five games I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
That’s it. Easy for me to write and for you to read.
And destined to be full of losing picks. You’ve been warned.
Week 1 Projections Against the Spread
I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive.
The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs.
It’s more measured and presentable -- and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 1, ordered according to kickoff time.
| Teams | Location | Projection | Consensus | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Away | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 |
| KC | Home | -5.9 | -5 | 0.9 |
| HOU | Away | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| BAL | Home | -10 | -10 | 0 |
| CAR | Away | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 |
| ATL | Home | -2.8 | -3.5 | -0.7 |
| CIN | Away | -2.2 | -2.5 | -0.3 |
| CLE | Home | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| SF | Away | -1.4 | -2.5 | -1.1 |
| PIT | Home | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| ARI | Away | 6 | 7 | 1.1 |
| WAS | Home | -6 | -7 | -1.1 |
| TEN | Away | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| NO | Home | -3.2 | -3 | 0.2 |
| TB | Away | 5.9 | 6 | 0.1 |
| MIN | Home | -5.9 | -6 | -0.1 |
| JAX | Away | -4.1 | -5 | -0.9 |
| IND | Home | 4.1 | 5 | 0.9 |
| MIA | Away | 2.2 | 3 | 0.8 |
| LAC | Home | -2.2 | -3 | -0.8 |
| LAR | Away | 4.2 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
| SEA | Home | -4.2 | -5.5 | -1.3 |
| PHI | Away | -3.5 | -4 | -0.5 |
| NE | Home | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 |
| GB | Away | 0.1 | 1 | 0.9 |
| CHI | Home | -0.1 | -1 | -0.9 |
| LV | Away | 3.3 | 4 | 0.7 |
| DEN | Home | -3.3 | -4 | -0.7 |
| DAL | Away | -3.2 | -3.5 | -0.3 |
| NYG | Home | 3.2 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| BUF | Away | -2.1 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| NYJ | Home | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 9/6 at 6 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.
Favorite Week 1 Bets
Here are my favorite bets, which you can find (along with lots of others) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
- Steelers +2.5 vs. 49ers (-110, BetMGM)
- Dolphins +3 at Chargers (-110, DraftKings)
- Packers +1.5 at Bears (-118, FanDuel)
Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), expected points added (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
Steelers +2.5 vs. 49ers (-110, BetMGM)
The 49ers could be without TE George Kittle (groin), and Steelers QB Kenny Pickett looked good in the preseason and seems ready to make a second-year leap.
This is the classic spot for backing Steelers HC Mike Tomlin, who is 73-61-4 ATS (6.6% ROI) at home, 53-30-4 ATS (24.1% ROI) as an underdog, and 15-4-3 ATS (46.5% ROI) as a home underdog for his career (including playoffs, per Action Network).
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Dolphins +3 at Chargers (-110, DraftKings)
The Chargers have a nearly nonexistent home-field advantage, and their run defense is extremely vulnerable: Last year they were No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.038) and SR (44.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was No. 1 last year in AY/A (9.2) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148) and is 10-5-1 ATS (25.9% ROI) as an underdog.
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Packers +1.5 at Bears (-118, FanDuel)
The Bears last year were No. 32 in defensive DVOA (19.3%) and points allowed (27.2 per game). I expect their defensive line (No. 30) to be outclassed by the Packers' offensive line (No. 6 in our Unit Rankings).
Even though he has just one start, Packers QB Jordan Love should benefit from multiple seasons in the same offensive system, and in his four brief appearances last year, he completed 66.7% of his passes for 10.2 AY/A.
Packers HC Matt LaFleur is 8-0 ATS (93.2% ROI) against the Bears and an early-season assassin at 12-4 ATS (46.2% ROI) in Weeks 1-4.
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Week 1 Games I’m Monitoring
Chiefs -4 vs. Lions (-110, Circa)
I’m waiting to see how the injury situation unfolds with TE Travis Kelce (knee).
Also, the Chiefs are a team that wins more than you’d expect based on their historical ATS performance with HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes, so if I bet them, it might be on the moneyline instead of the spread.
Panthers +3.5 at Falcons (-108, FanDuel)
I see theoretical value on the Panthers, but the potential absence of EDGE Brian Burns (holdout) is significant.
Plus, HC Frank Reich is 0-4-1 ATS (-80% ROI) in Week 1.
Cardinals +7.5 at Commanders (-110, Circa)
I fear my projections aren’t accurately capturing the downgrade from QB Colt McCoy to Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune for the Cardinals.
That said, I’m also not sure there’s a meaningful downgrade, and I’m skeptical that Commanders QB Sam Howell should be favored by more than a touchdown in his second career start.
Colts +5 vs. Jaguars (-110, Caesars)
The Colts now have one of the league’s worst secondaries without CBs: Stephon Gilmore, Isaiah Rodgers, Brandon Facyson, and SS Rodney McLeod.
Even so, the Jaguars' defense is subpar, and the combination of HC Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson could help the Colts keep this game to a field goal.
Rams +5.5 at Seahawks (-106, FanDuel)
The Rams will be without WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring), but the Seahawks could be without CB Devon Witherspoon (hamstring) and SS Jamal Adams (quad).
Rams HC Sean McVay is 9-4 ATS (34.9% ROI) against the Seahawks.
Patriots +4 vs. Eagles (-108, DraftKings)
The Patriots have a strong defense (No. 2 last year in EPA, return 10 starters) and improved offense (QB Mac Jones entering his third year, new OC Bill O’Brien).
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs with the ball for a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second quarter of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
They can get after the passer (No. 3 last year with 8.3% sack rate), and the Eagles offense was No. 24 in sack rate (7.6%) primarily because of QB Jalen Hurts’ propensity to hold onto the ball.
Hurts has improved every year of his career, and he’s the kind of dual-threat QB who historically has troubled Patriots HC Bill Belichick’s defense.
Raiders +4 at Broncos (-110, FanDuel)
I don’t care what my median projections say. I see massive downside risk in Raiders HC Josh McDaniels, who could be utterly outmaneuvered by Broncos HC Sean Payton
I think the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league, and the Broncos have a true home-field advantage at elevation early in the year.
Freedman’s Five Contest Picks
Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Based on the current consensus odds, the contest lines, my projections, and the Unabated Pick’em Edge Tool, here are the five games I’m thinking about entering into the DraftKings contest.
Note: I expect some of these picks will change based on line movement and news.
- Lions +6.5 at Chiefs: This feels like necessary chalk.
- Rams +6.5 at Seahawks: Good line value, and I doubt people will want to back them.
- Titans +3.5 at Saints: There’s value above +3, and I like HC Mike Vrabel is 25-17 ATS (14.3% ROI) as an underdog.
- Texans +10.5 at Ravens: Value above +10, and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 10-18 ATS as a home favorite (24.4% ROI for faders).
- Cardinals +7.5 at Commanders: It’s nasty.
