Freedman's Props. Best Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 18.
Matthew Freedman highlights his favorite NFL Player Props for Week 18, including Mike Evans, Josh Allen, and more.
Last week the gods of gambling gaveth and tooketh.
I had a bet on Christian McCaffrey anytime TD, and he got tackled at the one-yard line and then later left the game with an injury.
Ouch.
At the same time, I bet on Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs -- and that ticket cashed because he threw a pick on the last play of the game on a Hail Mary attempt.
Giveth, taketh, whatevereth.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five of my favorite player props for the Week 18 Sunday games.
Mike Evans Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 67.4
- Cutoff: 64.5
In Week 13, Evans had 162 yards and a TD on a season-high seven receptions and 12 targets against the Panthers.
I don’t think much has changed from then to now, and this line is only two yards higher (59.5) than it was when Evans faced the Panthers five weeks ago.
For the season, Evans has averaged 77.1 yards per game with a median of 68 yards.
Given the stakes for the Buccaneers -- with a win, they will secure the NFC South -- I expect them to rely on Evans regularly.
You can tail Evans' receiving yards on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1 or more:
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David Montgomery Anytime TD (+130, Caesars)
- My Projection: +106
- Cutoff: +115
Let’s remove the Week 6 game in which Montgomery left early with an injury after just 18 snaps. Am I cherry-picking? Maybe. But I’m removing the rotten cherry.
So we’re left with 12 games played for Montgomery this year.. In those 12 games, he has 12 TDs. In all but two of those games has he scored.
The two games in which he didn’t score -- Weeks 14-15 -- saw him lose 100% of the work inside the five-yard line to Jahmyr Gibbs, but since then he has reestablished himself as a goal-line player: Against these same Vikings just two weeks ago, Montgomery scored a TD on three carries inside the five (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Tool).
Sep 28, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
There’s a risk that the Lions could rest some of their key players in a game they don’t need to win, but I’m not too worried about it for a couple of reasons.
First, HC Dan Campbell has already said that the Lions are playing to win this week.
Second, if they do choose to curtail someone’s work in the backfield, that person could easily be Gibbs instead of Montgomery, given that Gibbs is the more important player and is at risk of hitting the rookie wall in the playoffs.
Bottom line: If you give me the opportunity to bet on a guy to score at plus odds when he has as many TDs as games played, I’ll probably do it.
You can tail the Montgomery TD at Caesars, PLUS get your first bet of up to $1,000 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below:
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D.J. Moore Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 68.1
- Cutoff: 68.5
I’m not showing a massive world of value on this bet with my projection -- but I don’t care. Moore is gonna go off.
The dude is extra motivated after not making the Pro Bowl.
And the matchup for him is great against the Packers, who are No. 28 in defensive dropback success rate (47.9%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Although he had just 2-25-0 receiving on two targets against the Packers earlier this year, that was in Week 1 -- in his first game with the team -- and since then he has 8.5 targets per game, and he had 13 last week.
The guy is dominating aerial usage on the Bears: He’s Nos. 3 & 5 in the league with a 43.9% air share and 75.5% WOPR.
He has an ankle injury, but I’m not concerned about it given that he has logged back-to-back limited practices to open the week. If the injury were truly serious, he almost certainly wouldn’t have practiced on Wednesday.
In his 11 full games with QB Justin Fields, Moore has averaged 94.4 yards receiving per game with a median of 96.
Blake Grupe Over 1.5 FGs (-105, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 2.3
- Cutoff: 1.5 (-130)
I’m still working on a kicker model -- because I’m a degenerate sicko.
I currently have four different methods for projecting FGs, and then I average them all together since I really can’t say which of them is best (or if any of them is good, for that matter).
The lowest projection I have for Grupe is 2.2; the highest, 2.6.
This year, the average FG attempts per team per game is 2.0. The Saints have averaged 2.2, and the Falcons have allowed 2.4 -- and that gives Grupe a good chance of getting two-plus FGs with his 80% conversion rate.
A lot of this bet has to do with the matchup: The Falcons are No. 3 in highest percentage of points allowed via FGs (34.2%; the league average is 23.2%).
When Grupe faced the Falcons in Week 12, he hit season-high marks with six attempts and five FGs.
In an end-of-season divisional matchup that both teams want to win, I can see this turning into a kicking contest, especially since the spread is short (Saints -3).
You can tail Grupe's FG prop on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5:
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Josh Allen Over 0.5 INTs (-110, BetMGM)
- My Projection: -124.4
- Cutoff: -120
Allen has 16 INTs in 16 games this year. If not for Sam Howell (19), Allen would be the league leader.
Passing turnovers are just a part of his game. You gotta take the bad with the good … and in all but three games he has thrown an INT.
It just so happens that one of those games was against the Dolphins in Week 4, when he had his best performance of the year with 320 yards and four TDs passing on just 25 attempts.
But at the time the Dolphins didn’t have No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, who was out in Week 4 with a knee injury, and that game was in Buffalo, where Allen has been the best version of himself. On the road, though, he has 10 INTs in eight games with a pick in each contest (including the London game).
The Dolphins are dealing with significant injuries on defense and will probably be without No. 2 CB Xavien Howard (foot), but they still have 10 INTs in nine games since Ramsey returned in Week 8.
In a high-leverage primetime road matchup, it’s not hard to project Allen for an INT.
You can tail the Allen prop at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up with code FANTASYLIFE below!
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