Freedman's Props. Best Player Prop Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend.
Matthew Freedman highlights his favorite player props for the Super Wild Card Weekend NFL slate, including C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, and more.
Last week I was 6-2 (+4.2 units) on player props. One of my losses was on a kicker.
I swear to the gambling gods, I will eventually master these FG props.
I closed out the regular season 292-232 (+37.6 units) on player props.
It was an up-and-down season that at times felt terrible but overall was profitable.
At this point in my life, that’s usually how every season feels. In the words of Pink Floyd, “I have become comfortably numb.”
Also, “I need a dirty woman” -- but that doesn’t have anything to do with this piece.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life Projections Tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool & Prop Finder: The Fantasy Life Prop Tool contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource. And there’s also the Fantasy Life Prop Finder, which allows you to see easily all the props for any given player and the books that offer the best lines.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are six props I like for Super Wild Card Weekend, one for each game.
C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 INTs (-110, BetMGM)
- My Projection: -123.7
- Cutoff: -115
Stroud has just completed maybe -- probably -- the greatest rookie QB season of all time. Not only was he No. 1 in the league in passing yardage (273.9 per game), but he also was No. 1 in INT rate (1.0%).
Think about that. As a rookie -- a Week 1 starter -- on a team that had lost 12-13 games in each of the previous three seasons, he was the most prolific passer in the league AND the safest.
That’s outstanding.
By the end of the season, he was No. 2 with an 8.7 AY/A. That’s an MVP-caliber number.
Big picture: He’s good.
The Texans are 2.5-point underdogs this weekend, so Stroud might be compelled to pass a little more than he usually does, and he has a tough matchup against the Browns, who have 18 INTs in 17 games and are No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.188) and SR (36.3%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
But Stroud has displayed such excellent ball security in the NFL that I’m not too worried about the matchup: He has just five INTs in 15 games. In only three games has he thrown a pick.
If I could bet now on Stroud to win the 2024 MVP, I would. I can’t -- so instead I’ll bet on him to stay clean in this game.
You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE and place a first bet of just $5 or more!
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Kadarius Toney Under 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 9.9
- Cutoff: 10.5 (-120)
My projection leans to the under, but this bet is more about vibes than numbers.
Toney (hip, ankle) has missed the past three weeks and isn’t guaranteed to play in this game (as of writing). If he doesn’t, then this bet will void. If he does play, I expect him to be limited, as he was in Week 13, when he played just 12 snaps, ran only eight routes, and saw zero targets after returning from an injury that sidelined him in Week 12 (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
And the Chiefs have no reason to “rush” Toney back to a large role, given that WR Mecole Hardman is now healthy. In his four games this year with Hardman (Weeks 7-11), Toney has actually played behind Hardman and seen only five targets.
Plus, rookie WR Rashee Rice has emerged as the team’s No. 1 WR, and he plays most of his snaps in the slot, where Toney often lines up.
It will probably be hard for Toney to find the field with the other WRs now ahead of him on the depth chart. Speaking of depth, I should note that Toney has a laughably low 2.9-yard aDOT, so even if he gets multiple targets he could still hit the under.
Finally, the Chiefs might not need to throw the ball much as -4.5 home favorites, and they might have limited desire to throw with a forecast of 10-plus mph wind.
There’s a non-zero chance that Toney sees exactly zero targets in this game.
You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get $200 INSTANTLY in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
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Mason Rudolph Over 0.5 INTs (-101, Caesars)
- My Projection: -157.3
- Cutoff: -130
There’s a chance that the Steelers will limit the number of attempts Rudolph has in this game because -- let’s face it -- he’s probably not that good, and the forecast calls for wind of 29 mph with a 96% chance of snow.
Because of that, Rudolph’s odds of throwing an INT could be reduced.
But that gets me back to the bigger picture: This is a QB who’s not good, who’s on the road as a 10-point underdog, who’s playing in a game with snow and terrible wind.
You put all of that together, and it feels like a great set of circumstances for the creation of INTs.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) throws in the third quarter during a Week 16 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday, Dec. 23, 2023, at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa.
Rudolph has played incredibly well this year. On 74 pass attempts, he has a blistering 10.5 AY/A with zero INTs. His bad throw rate of 8.7% is elite.
But what was his bad throw rate last year? It was nonexistent -- because he was a No. 3 QB who played zero snaps.
What about the year before that? It was a much more realistic 16.0%. (Josh Allen’s was 17.0%, for a point of reference.)
Rudolph entered the season as the No. 3 QB, and despite what he has done this year we still have a long-term history that suggests that Rudolph isn’t a starter-caliber player. For his career, he has a 2.4% INT rate.
Before this season, that number was 2.9%.
In a game with bad weather in which Rudolph as a dog will probably need to throw the ball with aggressiveness at some point, he seems more than a little likely to toss an INT.
You can tail the Rudolph prop and get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up below for a new Caesars account!
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Dak Prescott Over 1.5 TDs (-172, FanDuel)
- My Projection: 2.2, -284.9
- Cutoff: -225
Prescott is the first player I highlighted in my Wild Card Fantasy Favorites article. I’m very bullish on him this week.
Points are expected in this game. It has a high total at 50.5, and as I noted in our Monday Betting Life Newsletter, the over is 31-17 (27.9% ROI) in indoor postseason games since 2003.
And if we expect points, that probably means that Prescott -- as a -7.5 home favorite -- throws some TDs. At home this year, Prescott has 308.8 yards and 2.8 TDs passing per game, and the Cowboys are 8-0 ML (28.7% ROI) and 6-2 ATS (42.9% ROI, per Action Network) with an average of 37.4 points.
For the season, Prescott has 2.1 TDs passing per game -- and as good as that number is it probably isn’t representative of what Prescott is capable of now. At the beginning of the season, the Cowboys were more restrained in their usage of Prescott, but since the Week 7 bye, he has been utterly dominant.
- Weeks 1-6: 31.7 pass attempts, 222.2 yards, 1 TD per game
- Weeks 8-18: 36.4 pass attempts, 289.4 yards, 2.7 TDs per game
Since the bye, Prescott has gone over 1.5 TDs in 10 of 11 games.
And he has an advantageous matchup against the Packers, who are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (48.0%).
You can tail Prescott at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet below!
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Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-137, Caesars)
- My Projection: -192
- Cutoff: -175
Williams has replaced Austin Ekeler as the league’s preeminent Christian McCaffrey impersonator.
Williams is small (5-9, 194 lbs.), but that hasn’t kept HC Sean McVay from giving him a full workload. In every game this year, Williams has 15-plus opportunities, and since returning in Week 12 from an ankle injury he hasn’t had fewer than 22.
For the season, he has 15 TDs in 12 games. Since Week 12, he has eight TDs in six games with a score in every game but one.
With a slate-high total of 51.5, this game should see points, and that gives Williams an excellent chance of finding the endzone.
At -137, he has a 57.8% implied probability of scoring a TD this week, but I think his true odds are 65.8% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
Given that he rested last week in a meaningless Week 18 game, he should see plenty of work against the Lions.
Jake Elliott Over 1.5 FGs (+114, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 1.8
- Cutoff: 1.5 (-110)
Look, you knew there was going to be a kicker prop in here somewhere. At least I held it in abeyance until the end.
Because I’m a degenerate sicko -- probably not unlike you (and I mean that as a compliment) -- I have four different methods for projecting FGs, and then I average them all together.
With this model, I have Elliott projected for 1.8 FGs, primarily because of the matchup: 28.6% of the points the Buccaneers have allowed this year are via FGs (the league average is 23.1%).
And with QB Jalen Hurts (finger) dealing with an injury, the Eagles might be less inclined to use him on fourth-and-short runs and instead opt for FGs. (I doubt it, but it’s possible.)
Given the tight spread (Eagles -3), Elliott might get multiple late-game opportunities (including a chance to tie or win at the end), and his 90.9% conversion rate since his 2021 Pro Bowl season has been elite.
It was a while ago, but against the Buccaneers in Week 3, Elliott had three FGs on three attempts.
