How to Bet on the NFL Preseason

I’m a degenerate. It’s OK. I know what I am. I’ve learned throughout the years how to limit and leverage my degeneracy.

If you’re reading this — and you are reading this — then you’re probably a degenerate, too.

How do I know?

You clicked on a piece entitled, “How to Bet on the NFL Preseason.”

You, my newfound best friend, are a degenerate.

And there’s nothing wrong with that. There’s nothing wrong with betting on NFL preseason games. I mean, imagine not doing that. Imagine choosing to incur the mind-melting wrath of the gambling and football gods… by not betting on the NFL preseason.

That’s not me. That’s not us. And by “us,” I mean you, and me, and all of our friends in the FREE Fantasy Life Discord. (Sometimes even I’m amazed by the deftness with which I integrate links into the 100% natural discourse of my articles.)

Where was I?

Ah, yes. “That’s not us.” That’s not us. Because you and I (and our Discord friends) — unlike the billions of people who sleepwalk through the meaningless existence of their daily lives with nary a transom of a thought about the NFL preseason — you and I (and our Discord friends) are invested.

Emotionally invested. And, soon, financially invested.

As I write this sentence, it’s the last day of July. Which means that it’s almost August. Which means that it’s almost time for the Hall of Fame Game. Which means that the NFL preseason is almost here. Which means that the NFL regular season is almost here.

Which means that it’s about time for me to get to ignore my family and friends and personal hygiene and mental wellbeing for the next five months so that I can focus all day every day on the greatest sport ever invented.

Football.

Imagine.

Imagine not betting on the NFL preseason.

Here are 10 guidelines for betting on the 2023 NFL preseason.

Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), moneyline (ML), over/under (O/U), return on investment (ROI). Historical sports betting data from Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Note: If you’re unfamiliar with sports betting terminology, “Jets +1.5” means that the Jets are underdogs and can win the bet even if they lose by one point. If they lose by two or more points, then they lose the bet. “Browns -1.5” means that the Browns are favorites and must win by at least two points to win the bet. If they win by only one point, then they lose the bet — and if they lose the game outright then they definitely lose the bet. “Over 33.5” means that the two teams must combine for at least 34 points to win the bet. “Under 33.5” means that the two teams must combine for no more than 33 points for the bet to cash. And “-110” means that bettors wager $110 for every $100 they want to win.

2023 NFL preseason betting guidelines

Bet on the Ravens

No one takes the preseason more seriously than HC John Harbaugh. His Ravens teams tend to be deep and disciplined, and that combination pays dividends in the postseason.

Under Harbaugh, the Ravens have dominated the preseason.

Harbaugh in Preseason: 38-16-1 ATS (35.9% ROI)
Harbaugh in Preseason: 43-12 ML (45.0% ROI)

I doubt we’ll see the Ravens as underdogs at Commanders (Week 2) and at Buccaneers (Week 3), but they might be getting points vs. Eagles (Week 1) — and Harbaugh as a preseason underdog has historically been a printing press.

Harbaugh as Preseason Underdog: 17-5 ATS (51.9% ROI)
Harbaugh as Preseason Underdog: 15-7 ATS (61.5% ROI)

I’m not saying that you should mortgage your house to bet on the Ravens in the preseason. But maybe your mother’s house? Worst-case scenario, she can live with you if it doesn’t work out.

Fade the team of ‘Hard Knocks’

The Jets have gotten a universe of hype since trading for four-time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers in April. And they are the team of the 2023 season of Hard Knocks.

Historically, the team of Hard Knocks has had inflated lines in the preseason.

And that’s what I expect to see with the Jets this year. I will likely either be betting against them or betting on the under in all/most of their preseason games, starting with the Hall of Fame game.

Speaking of which…

Bet on the Under in the Hall of Fame Game

The Hall of Fame game is the preseason for the preseason. No one wants to exert actual effort in the “game.”

At BetMGM the under is available at 33.5 (-110). The line has already moved to 33.0 at DraftKings and Caesars and 32.5 at FanDuel.

Since 2014, the under in the Hall of Fame game is 5-2 (40.4% ROI).

I mention 2014 for a specific reason…

Bet Unders in general

Before 2014, overs and unders were fairly balanced in the preseason, but for the past nine years the under is 265-211-9 (7.5% ROI).

What changed in 2014?

I’m not sure, but I believe that’s around the time an increasing number of coaches started to shift from, “Let’s use preseason games to try out all our ideas,” to, “We shouldn’t show everything new we’re thinking of in the preseason,” — and that shift would naturally tend to result in lower-scoring games.

Teams are disincentivized from putting anything close to their full offense on display in August.

Speaking of August…

Bet Unders in hot weather

I don’t have preseason temperature data before 2019, so the sample is small, but since then the under is 8-2 (50.3% ROI) in games with a temperature of at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

In general, I think the trend of “the hotter the weather, the fewer points scored” makes sense. Few players want to go hard in the heat.

With that in mind, here are the games that at a glance look like they might offer some weather-based betting opportunities.

Falcons at Dolphins: Fri. 8/11, 7 pm ET (Week 1)
Steelers at Buccaneers: Fri. 8/11, 7 pm ET (Week 1)
Jets at Panthers: Sat. 8/12, 4 pm ET (Week 1)
Ravens at Commanders: Mon. 8/21, 8 pm ET (Week 2)
Lions at Panthers: Fri. 8/25, 8 pm ET (Week 3)
Bengals at Commanders: Sat. 8/26, 6:05 pm ET (Week 3)
Ravens at Buccaneers: Sat. 8/26, 7 pm ET (Week 3)
Dolphins at Jaguars: Sat. 8/26, 7 pm ET (Week 3)

Disclaimer: I might have missed some games, I’m not a meteorologist, be sure to check the weather closer to kickoff, etc., etc.

Bet Unders in Rams games

HC Sean McVay plays almost no core contributors in the preseason, especially on the offensive side of the ball, so the Rams rarely put up points, which means that Rams unders tend to be profitable.

With McVay, the Rams are 11-6-1 (23.1% ROI) to the under in the preseason.

Bet on the Seahawks

With HC Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 26-19-1 ATS (11.9% ROI) in the preseason. That makes sense to me, as Carroll seems like a coach who would want his team to compete regardless of situation.

I mean, this guy chews gum like he’s trying to kill it. When his players put on their helmets, he wants them to play tough.

Bet on the Bills

The Bills are one of the top teams in my power ratings. They have a talented roster and a respectable QB room after starter Josh Allen, given that backups Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley are experienced veterans.

They have great continuity with their coaching staff, and HC Sean McDermott has done well in the preseason.

McDermott in Preseason: 12-5-1 ATS (33.0% ROI)
McDermott in Preseason: 12-6 ML (37.5% ROI)

And since 2019, Allen’s first year in training camp as the starter, McDermott’s Bills have done even better.

McDermott in Preseason Since 2019: 9-1 ATS (73.0% ROI)
McDermott in Preseason Since 2019: 9-1 ML (76.1% ROI)

Not too shabby.

Bet on unpopular moneyline road underdogs

We’re hitting a trifecta of contrarianism with this bet, which has been respectably (but not massively) profitable.

Unpopular Road Underdogs in Preseason: 87-74-2 ATS (5.8% ROI)
Unpopular Road Underdogs in Preseason: 59-88-1 ATS (5.7% ROI)

I’m not blindly betting on all the teams that match these trends, but they collectively present us with an intriguing pool of betting candidates.

Don’t bet your entire bankroll on the preseason

Come on, people. Frankly, it’s embarrassing how excited you are to bet on the preseason. I mean, we’re talking about games that are almost meaningless and nearly impossible to predict.

You can be a degenerate without being depraved.

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