Last week I went to Las Vegas for Bet Bash and was there for five nights. 

I'd never been to Vegas in August before.

Yeah, it was hot—but it was also awesome. Being there for the first week of NFL preseason was a blast, especially since I got to be in the presence of other degenerates (and I say that with full respect) who were betting on the games.

Overall, Bet Bash was great. This was my first time attending — I offered a seminar on fantasy sports as a potential supplement to sports betting — and the overall event did not disappoint. It's the ultimate networking meetup and hangout for sports bettors, and I'd recommend it to anyone serious about operating in the space.

And the venue was amazing. This was also my first time at Circa Resort & Casino, and I loved it. The two-story sportsbook is unlike anything I've seen before. Stadium Swim is perhaps the most brilliant idea ever conceived—and it has been perfectly executed. And the Legacy Club, located on the 60th floor and designed with a full 360-degree panoramic view, offers an unrivaled environment and perspective of the Vegas landscape.

But what perhaps was most exciting to me about my Vegas trip was this: I finally—FINALLY!—was able to register for the Circa Sports Survivor Pro Football Contest, which provides a $10M grand prize to first place.

Did you hear me? I said, "Ten. Million. Doll. Hairs."

For those unfamiliar with the contest here's how it works: Each week of the NFL season (plus once each for Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas), every participant must pick one team to win its game. If that team wins, the participant advances but cannot use that team again. And if that team loses, then the participant is eliminated. Whoever survives to the end wins.

Straightforward. Sophisticated in its simplicity. But definitely not easy.

Why hadn't I registered before? Because Nevada betting laws require participants to enter the contest in person. Sure, that's a little annoying … but now for the rest of my life that will give me a convenient excuse to go to Vegas in August for some preseason football, Stadium Swim, and Bet Bash debauchery.

And it's not as if I need to be in Vegas every week during the season to enter my picks—because I have Winners Circle Proxy Service (WCP) to do that for me.

WCP makes the process effortless.

1. I booked an appointment with them and then showed up at the Circa Sportsbook.
2. They helped me sign up for the contest.
3. The sportsbook gave me four drink tickets when I registered, and I had a great rest of my day.
4. Whenever the season comes around, I'll enter my picks weekly online in the WCP portal.
5. And then at the end of the season, I'll be $10M richer.

WCP has been around for just under a decade, and they're trusted by people who know what they're doing: Last year, two of the four Survivor winners were WCP users, as well as the Circa Sports Million V champion.

So that was Vegas: I had fun and signed up for the Survivor contest with the help of WCP.

Now, here's my five-step plan for how I (admittedly, a Survivor novice) plan to win the thing.

1. Project All 272 NFL Games

Done.

For every team I have a power rating, which can change based on the value of the starting QB relative to his backup. For every stadium I have a home-field advantage, which can change based on the nuances of a matchup. And for every game I have calculated against-the-spread projections that take into account rest, travel, and a number of other situational factors. 

Without projections like these, I feel as if I would be trying to navigate the landscape of the 2024 regular season without a compass.

Throughout the season, my weekly game projections will be available with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

These projections are the starting point.

Premium

Go FantasyLife+

Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.

Learn More

2. Focus on Thanksgiving/Black Friday & Christmas

There are 32 NFL teams, and if I'm planning to win this contest—which I am—then that means I need to use 20 different teams throughout the season.

And that means I need to focus on areas of scarcity.

In Week 13, I will be required to use one of the eight teams playing on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

• Bears at Lions (-4)
• Giants at Cowboys (-8)
• Dolphins at Packers (-3)
• Raiders at Chiefs (-7.5)

And in Week 17, I similarly will need to deploy one of four teams playing on Christmas.

• Chiefs (-4) at Steelers
• Ravens (-1.5) at Texans

Much can change throughout the course of the season—but right now the true chokepoint of the schedule is Christmas, when I will want to have the Chiefs available, which removes them from consideration in Week 13.

Ergo, as much as I hate the idea (as a Cowboys fan) of using them on Thanksgiving, I think I need to lock them in now as my top option, given the edge they have in win probability over all the other eligible teams.

I'm ready to have my holiday ruined by the Cowboys.

3. Sort Through the Subpar Teams

My sense is that it won't be hard throughout the year to find games in which I'll be happy to pick a good team, like the Chiefs in Week 17 and the Cowboys (theoretically) in Week 13.

But if I need to use 20 teams, by necessity at some point I must rely on teams untrustworthy at best and bad at worst.

I don't want to give away too much—because I think the ability to determine when to use below-average teams and which ones to use can be a large source of alpha in a contest like this—but I will say that the second half of the season feels like the right time to employ undesirable teams.

By that time in the year, we have a much better sense of all the teams and their strengths and weaknesses. We can better pick our spots.

Early in the campaign, I'll probably utilize many of the better teams in the league, especially those with good year-over-year retention on their rosters and coaching staffs.

But later in the season will likely be the time when I plug my nose, strategically dive into the trash heap, and hope for the best.

4. Survive in Weeks 1-13

The goal of the contest is to survive through Week 18. That's why it's called "Survivor."

But I can imagine people, especially earlier in the season, focusing way more on "game theory" and exposure expectations than on merely advancing week to week.

For the first two-thirds or so of the contest, I'm going to concentrate almost exclusively on stacking as much win probability as possible without paying much (if any) attention to what the rest of the field is doing.

Survival is the name of the game. In Weeks 1-13, that will take precedence over everything else.

5. Utilize Game Theory in Weeks 14-18

Once I reach Week 14, I won't abandon my focus on win probability, but I will start to utilize game theory by studying the remaining participants in the contest and taking note of the teams they have left available.

Especially as we get into the final weeks of the competition, it might become optimal (all else equal) for me to lean toward specific teams as a response to the anticipated actions of my peers.

Conclusion

Sign up for the Circa Survivor. Use Winners Circle as your proxy. Win $10M. Retire. Easy. Hopefully.