Ian's Top Props. The Three Best Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl 58.
Ian Hartitz breaks down his favorite prop bets ahead of Super Bowl 58 between the Chiefs and 49ers, including Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and more.
Sunday marks our last chance to bet on meaningful NFL football until next September.
Sad, I know — but at least we have one final opportunity to put together one helluva sendoff in the form of Super Bowl LVIII.
What follows are my three favorite prop bets ahead of this Chiefs-49ers matchup as well as a bunch of other honorable mention darts that might be fun to sprinkle a few doll hairs on.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
Brock Purdy to Record 4+ Rush Attempts (+110, BetMGM)
This is my weekly “candle” bet, meaning I have to buy a $50 candle if the prop doesn’t cash (I’m playing both sides so that I always come out on top).
Anyway, the rationale for my confidence here comes down to two key factors:
- Purdy has made a habit of scrambling more in the playoffs. Overall, he’s posted rush attempt totals of four, three, six and five in four career postseason starts excluding his injury-shortened NFC Championship disaster against the Eagles last year. Purdy is sneaky athletic, hard-nosed, gritty, scrappy, cerebral, blue-collar, deceptively fast and overall just a real lunch pail kind of guy.
- This Chiefs defense invites opposing QB runs because of their high use of man coverage. Steve Spagnuolo’s group allowed the third-most rush attempts to opposing QBs this season, undoubtedly in part because they decided to utilize man-centric coverages (Cover-1, Cover-0, 2-man) at the league’s eighth-highest rate this season. Defenders constantly turning their backs to the ball to operate in man coverage has invited scrambling opportunities, leading to the Chiefs allowing the fifth-highest rate of scrambles (6.3%) of any defense. Opposing QBs have beat this prop in 12 of 20 games (60%) this season while averaging 5.7 per game overall.
Last game of the year, Brent. Can’t hold anything back now: I believe Purdy’s demonstrated willingness to take off in high-leverage games will lead to enough scramble opportunities against this man-heavy Chiefs defense to clear this number — and, hell, kneel-downs at the end of the first and/or second halves would work just fine, too.
Christian McCaffrey to Win MVP (+450, BetMGM)
Shoutout to the legend Geoff Ulrich for originally calling this one out on last Friday’s Fantasy Life Podcast.
Yes, 32 of 57 (56%) of Super Bowl MVPs have gone to QBs, including 14 of the last 24 (58%) since the new millennium.
Also yes, McCaffrey isn’t your everyday RB. As Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland noted in his critically acclaimed Utilization Report: McCaffrey has the strongest Super Bowl RB utilization profile we have seen in 23 years.
Take a look at statistical production from the only seven RBs to ever take home Super Bowl MVP honors:
- Super Bowl VIII: Larry Csonka (145 rush yards, 2 TD)
- Super Bowl IX: Franco Harris (158 rush yards, 1 TD)
- Super Bowl XVII: John Riggins (181 total yards, 1 TD)
- Super Bowl XVIII: Marcus Allen (209 total yards, 2 TD)
- Super Bowl XXV: Otis Anderson (109 total yards, 1 TD)
- Super Bowl XXVIII: Emmitt Smith (158 total yards, 2 TD)
- Super Bowl XXXII: Terrell Davis (165 total yards, 3 TD)
That’s an average of 160.7 total yards and 1.7 TDs. Consider, CMC has averaged 126.8 total yards and 1.4 TDs this season while managing to attach 115-plus total yards to two TDs on six separate occasions throughout the year (33% of his games!).
This isn’t meant to be a slight on Brock Purdy, but let’s face it: His playoff numbers against the Packers (252 pass yards, 1 TD) and Lions (267 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) weren’t exactly the stuff of legends. Kudos to Mr. Irrelevant for making plenty of clutch plays during the performances, but it’s probably fair to say that CMC — who gained 128 and 132 total yards while scoring twice in each game — would have won MVP honors in both contests had the media been forced to pick someone.
Throw in the reality that this Chiefs defense has been far more elite against the pass (No. 3 in EPA allowed per dropback) than the run (No. 28 in EPA allowed per rush) this season, and it would hardly be surprising to see Kyle Shanahan and company embrace more of run-first game plan centered around their workhorse RB.
You can tail the Purdy and McCaffrey bets at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:
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Isiah Pacheco 80+ Rushing Yards (+170, DraftKings)
Similar to the Chiefs: This San Francisco defense has been far better when defending the pass (No. 5 in EPA allowed per dropback) compared to the run (No. 27 in EPA allowed per rush).
This is obviously a bit of a calculated decision: Pretty much all of the league’s best overall defenses also happen to feature the game’s most elite groups at defending the pass.
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the second half for the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Still, it hasn’t exactly taken a TON of volume for a number of backs to clear this threshold against Fred Warner and company. Specifically:
- Aaron Jones (18 carries-108 rush yards-0 TD)
- David Montgomery (15-93-1)
- Joe Mixon (16-87-1)
- James Conner (14-86-1)
- Jerome Ford (17-84-0)
Meanwhile, Pacheco has ripped off totals of 68, 97, 89 and 130 rushing yards during his last four games.
Yes, the former mark featured his most recent performance against the Ravens. Also yes, Pacheco at least received a whopping 24 rush attempts in that game, reflecting the reality that he’s been an absolute WORKHORSE in recent weeks.
The potential return of Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR) would likely do more to hurt Pacheco’s receiving upside than anything; the backfield’s early-down work has largely belonged to the second-year talent all season long.
Pacheco runs like a cheetah with thoughts of an assassin: I’ll gladly take the extra +170 juice on his 80-plus yard mark (Fantasy Life projects 80.2 yards) as opposed to -120 odds on his 66.5 rushing line. Making a ladder play on these alternant rushing lines also sounds like a pretty, pretty, pretty cool idea.
You can tail Pacheco (and the rest of my bets below) at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first $5 bet!
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Honorable mention (DraftKings Odds)
- Brock Purdy Longest Completion OVER 37.5 (+100): He’s cleared this in 12 of 18 games this season (66%) including in six of his last seven games. Even if you don’t overly believe in Purdy himself, these talented skill-position weapons are capable of creating their own big plays.
- Brandon Aiyuk OVER 0.5 Receiving TDs (+154): This represents a small boost on his anytime TD odds (+145) even though Aiyuk hasn’t handled a rushing attempt all season. Value, baby.
- George Kittle UNDER 23.5 Receiving Yards (+500): The 49ers’ stud TE is awesome, but he’s also seen fewer than five targets in eight games this season inside this crowded passing game, leading to him finishing under this mark on four separate occasions. This Chiefs secondary was a top-10 group at limiting opposing TE receiving yardage; these odds seem steep for someone who could simply be game-planned into more of a block-first role this week.
- Justin Watson UNDER 1.5 Receptions (-125): There have been times this season when Watson was featured as the offense’s lead outside WR, but not exactly recently: His 57% route rate in the AFC Championship paled in comparison to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (96%) and Rashee Rice (93%). Overall, Watson has failed to catch multiple passes in eight of his last 10 games! Fantasy Life projections have him at just 1.1 receptions for this Sunday.
- National Anthem OVER 1:26 (86 seconds): It’s tough to find a legit sportsbook offering these odds, but at a minimum find a friend because there’s nothing more exhilarating than having a stopwatch out while jamming to the Star-Spangled Banner. Performer Reba McEntire is no stranger to the song and has performed seven times throughout her career. While she famously went under this mark in her most recent appearance at the 2017 Celebrity of Hope Softball Game, this line still feels rather low: Jewel (1:27) has the quickest recorded time since 1991 (per Covers.com), and Billy Joel (1:30) was the last person to not clear 90 seconds with ease back in 2007.
Best of luck to all you fellow degenerates out there and enjoy the game!
