Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars enter this game as -4.5 (FanDuel) favorites and enter the season as favorites to take down the AFC South at -155 (FanDuel). They have an improved receiving core after adding Calvin Ridley and big hopes of competing against the best in the AFC. 

Jaguars Week 1 Injury Updates:

• Davon Hamilton (back) - questionable 

The Colts cleaned house for 2023 and will have their sixth different week 1 starting quarterback in as many seasons after announcing 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson will start against Jacksonville. Indianapolis has a win total of just 6.5 this year, so the expectation is that while Richardson will be fun and provide plenty of exciting plays, there will be an obvious learning curve to overcome. 

Colts Week 1 Injury Updates:

• Jonathan Taylor (back/ankle/personal - trade request) - out
• Shaq Leonard (concussion) - questionable 
• Danny Pinter (ankle) - out 
• E.J. Speed (concussion) - questionable
• Jelani Woods (hamstring) - questionable 

Game Analysis

The Colts and Jaguars split the seasonal series last year, but we can pretty much throw those results out the window. The Colts will be an entirely different team on offense with Shane Steichen as HC, and one that will focus on unleashing the duel-threat potential of Anthony Richardson’s skillset. 

Jalen Hurts averaged around 10.2 rush attempts per game under Steichen in his last two seasons with Philadelphia, and we should feel good about projecting that level as a floor for Richardson’s rushing totals in year one, just given his size and utter athletic-freak-ness. 

Don’t discount the Colts' passing game in 2023, either. Indianapolis ranked 29th in yards per attempt (6.4) last season, but if preseason was any indication, they will be taking shots downfield on a regular basis. 

Yes, Richardson only completed 45% of his passes in three preseason starts, but it was his aggression and desire to look downfield that stood out. This won’t be a simple check-down offense, and the Colts have explosive players on the outside like Alec Pierce who can make defenses who get too honed in on Richardson’s rushing ability pay. 

Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) runs with the ball during the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Whether or not these attempts will pay off against the Jaguars remains to be seen. Jacksonville has a couple of highly-graded corners in Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams, although the 5’9" Williams may be someone the Colts choose to pick on with Pierce, who has a 3+ inch and 20 lbs. advantage over the undersized corner. 

If the Jaguars can’t hold the Colts down, then it will be up to Trevor Lawrence and his newly reinforced receiving crew to save the day. The Colts remain a top-tier rush defense that allowed just 4.1 yards per carry last year, but their secondary comes in at just 27th in our overall positional rankings. 

Indianapolis will likely be starting a rookie in Juju Brents on the outside at corner, and for some reason retained nickelback Kenny Moore, whom Christian Kirk torched last year for 3 TDs in two games. Don’t be shocked if Kirk scores again in week 1 and potentially even overshadows new acquisition Calvin Ridley for a week. 

Verdict

The Colts are going to have a wide range of outcomes this season, especially at the beginning of the year. If they start hitting on big plays early, or Anthony Richardson breaks free for a 70-yard run, this game could turn into a track meet given how fast Jacksonville plays. 

However, if those plays aren’t there, we may get a grind-it-out kind of scenario where the Jaguars are happy just to run the clock with a lead and force Richardson into more obvious throwing situations. 

The Colts have bumped back up to +4.5, as bettors seem to be wary of backing an inaccurate rookie in Week 1. Ultimately, I don’t mind siding with another divisional underdog in this spot, and backing a potentially generational talent in his first game as a pro. 

Accuracy doesn’t matter as much when you are picking up chunk plays on your hits, and there will likely be enough of those connections to make this a close and potentially exciting week 1 matchup.