Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs

The Lions enter year three of the Dan Campbell era as +140 favorites in the NFC North. They’ll be looking to join the upper echelon of the NFC conference, and anything less than a playoff appearance will surely be seen as a failure by fans and management. 

Lions Week 1 Injury Notes: 

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) - likely to practice in full for next week
• Emmanuel Moseley (knee) - questionable - not cleared for contact

The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl Champions. They’ve made the AFC Conference finals now five years running and have won the Super Bowl in two of the last four years. They’ll once again enter the season as Super Bowl favorites at +600 (BetMGM) to win it all. 

Chiefs Week 1 Injury Notes:

• Isiah Pacheco (knee) - returned to practice last week
• Kadarius Toney (knee) - questionable
• Chris Jones (holdout) - questionable 

Game Analysis

This is obviously a tough test for a solid but somewhat untested Lions squad to have right out of the gate. They improved their secondary in the offseason with the acquisitions of Cameron Sutton and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson but will face one of the greatest TEs in football in Travis Kelce. 

The Chiefs are masters of motioning Kelce into beneficial matchups, and he scored 13 TDs against man coverage in 2023. The Lions struggled against this position last season, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to TEs overall, and the second-most TDs to opposing TEs in the league. 

The Lions will try to limit him, but Kelce’s stat line in week 1 will likely end like it did most weeks for him in 2022—with a TD (or two) punched onto a busy reception and yardage line. 

The Lions also allowed 15 rushing TDs to RBs last season, and while KC’s DBOE (drop back over expectation) is above league average in nearly every game situation, it’s likely that one of Jerick McKinnon or Isiah Pacheco will get a few solid goal line attempts against this weaker run defense. 

McKinnon could be a sneaky TD pick given Pacheco’s lack of training camp work, but if the injury news stays rosy on the second-year back, then he’ll be the favorite to handle the short-yardage stuff. 

Nov 24, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs the ball upfield after catching a pass against the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions will attempt to counter Kelce with their own football unicorn in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who posted a 28% team target share in 2022. Given the depth chart in Detroit, St. Brown is again projected to be one of the leaders in that category again for 2023. 

St. Brown will face a Chiefs defense that allowed a fair number of receptions to opposing WRs but was also good at limiting big plays. Look for the high-energy Chiefs defense to be keying in on St. Brown in this game and potentially limiting his aDOT out of the gate.

While St. Brown is good enough to force the ball to if needed, Detroit’s best chance in this game is to try to control things on the ground. The Lions weren’t as efficient rushing the ball as they were passing in 2022, but David Montgomery could be seen as an early-down upgrade as he ranked 16th in the league in broken tackle rate in 2022. The expectation is that rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will play a huge role in the passing game, but don't be shocked if it's Montgomery who leads the two in usage in week 1. 

Verdict

Ultimately, this game comes down to a depth issue. We have both teams ranked as top 10 offensive units with top 5 O-Lines anchoring their pass protection and run game. However, the Lions will be relying on Jared Goff to gel with a few new pieces right of the gate, and that’s a potential issue when you’re certain to be under constant pressure from Patrick Mahomes and an underrated Chiefs defense.

I wouldn’t be overly shocked if the Lions' offense started a little slowly this season as they try to work out how all these new pieces fit. One certainty is that Detroit will have little room for on-the-fly adjustments against master strategist Andy Reid—who is 7-3 ATS in week 1 games since joining the Chiefs. 

Detroit’s offense should produce some positive moments in week 1—and mixing in some Amon-Ra St. Brown alternate line props this week may be a good idea. However, from a game standpoint, it’s likely best to tread lightly with the Lions for betting as the spread has now moved under a TD. 

All things considered, I expect the new season to begin like the old ended. A Chiefs win, a Chiefs cover, and a Travis Kelce TD (or two) mixed in.