Week 14 kicks off with a divisional rivalry and Matthew Freedman is here with his Lions vs Packers Preview and Predictions:

In this breakdown of the Week 14 Lions-Packers Thursday Night Football matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via a boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.

I also …

• Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.)
• Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game
• Note any players I like to outperform expectations.

Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”

For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 14 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

Obligatory notes.

Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of 3:15 p.m. ET on Tue., Dec. 3.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.

And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Lions-Packers Week 14 Betting Markets

• Spread & Total: DET -3.5 | O/U 51.5
• DET ML: -170 (DraftKings) 
• GB ML: +158 (Caesars) 

Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

A spread of -3.5 means the Lions need to win by at least four points to cash. If the Packers win outright or manage to lose by no more than three, they cash. A total of 51.5 means that 52 or more points cashes the over and 51 or fewer points cashes the under. A -170 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $170 to win $100; a +158 ML, $100 to win $158.

I think these are spot-on numbers. This is the eighth time the Lions and Packers have faced each other with respective HCs Dan Campbell and Matt LaFleur.

At this point, the market has a strong sense of how this divisional matchup is likely to play out.

Implied Team Totals For Lions vs Packers

• DET Team Total: 27.5
• GB Team Total: 24

Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.

Projections For Lions vs Packers Week 14

Lions-Packers Betting Projections

• Spread: DET -3.6
• Total: 51.3
• ML: +/-167

Lions-Packers Projected Final Score

• Lions: 27.4
• Packers: 23.8

Lions-Packers Projected Odds to Win

• Lions: 62.5%
• Packers: 37.5%

Detroit Lions Player Projections For Week 14

Quarterback

Top Fantasy Plays For Lions vs Packers Week 14

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Lions in their skill-position groups for Week 14.

• Jared Goff: QB6
• Jahmyr Gibbs: RB6
• David Montgomery: RB12
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: WR3
• Jameson Williams: WR26
• Sam LaPorta: TE8

Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor. 

For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.

Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Packers in their skill-position groups for Week 14.

• Jordan Love: QB7
• Josh Jacobs: RB9
• Jayden Reed: WR21
• Christian Watson: WR41
• Dontayvion Wicks: WR59
• Tucker Kraft: TE10

Freedman's Favorite

Lions QB Jared Goff: I don't expect Goff to win MVP. His five-INT debacle against the Texans in Week 10 feels disqualifying almost all on its own, and he doesn't have the raw volume of passing production statistics that MVPs normally have.

• Yards Passing: 2,982 | No. 8
• TDs Passing: 22 | No. 5

Plus, he adds almost nothing as a runner (25-40-0 rushing).

But over the past decade, almost every MVP has been a top-two finisher in team seeding, composite EPA + CPOE, and AY/A.

As it happens, Goff comes quite close to checking the box in every category.

• Team Seeding: 11-1 | No. 1 in NFC
• EPA + CPOE: 0.176 | No. 1 in NFL
• AY/A: 8.9 | No. 3 in NFL

And if we remove Steelers QB Russell Wilson from consideration (given that he has started just six games), then Goff moves to No. 2 in AY/A.

At just +1400 (FanDuel), Goff is an MVP candidate a la 2023 Brock Purdy: No one really believes he's "worthy" of winning the award—but he's got a chance to do it because he has the numbers that matter.

And his MVP candidacy could get a big boost this week if he balls out against the Packers in primetime.

The situational spot for Goff is ideal: He's indoors at home, where he will have his second straight game and third in four weeks. And the matchup is also advantageous: The Packers are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (50.6%).

Only QBs Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold (nine each) have more multi-TD passing games than Goff does this year (eight). If he throws for two-plus scores again this week, expect to start hearing MVP chants at Ford Field.

From my Week 14 Freedman's Favorites (QB Edition).

Betting Records and Trends For Lions-Packers Week 14

Lions: 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 9-3, 42.9% ROI | Favorites: 8-3, 38.3% ROI | Home: 4-2, 26.0% ROI
• ML: 11-1, 31.4% ROI | Favorites: 10-1, 25.4% ROI | Home: 5-1, 4.7% ROI
• Under: 7-5, 11.7% ROI | Home: 3-3, -4.0% ROI 

Betting performance data is via Action Network.

The Lions have been one of the most profitable ATS teams this year, and over the past three seasons, they've had one of the league's best home-field advantages.

Packers: 2024 Betting Records

• ATS: 6-6, -4.8% ROI | Underdogs: 2-2, -5.7% ROI | Road: 2-2, -4.7% ROI
• ML: 9-3, 25.0% ROI | Underdogs: 2-2, 14.3% ROI | Visitor: 4-0, 73.7% ROI
• Under: 6-5-1, 3.8% ROI | Road: 2-3, -23.6% ROI 

This year, the Packers haven't consistently covered, but they've won outright enough to be profitable—especially as road dogs.

Lions: Betting Trends

• HC Dan Campbell: 46-20 ATS, 32.9% ROI | 37-28-1 ML, 6.5% ROI
• Campbell at Home: 23-10 ATS, 33.2% ROI | 21-12 ML, 18.5% ROI
• Campbell as Favorite: 22-10 ATS, 30.6% ROI | 26-6 ML, 19.8% ROI
• Campbell as Home Favorite: 13-7 ATS, 23.5% ROI | 16-4 ML, 12.7% ROI
• Campbell in Division: 15-6 ATS, 36.0% ROI | 14-7 ML, 34.8% ROI
• Campbell in Primetime: 8-3 ATS, 37.9% ROI | 9-2 ML, 45.6% ROI
• Campbell vs. Matt LaFleur: 5-2 ATS, 36.1% ROI | 5-2 ML, 67.0% ROI

Dan Campbell's data is with Lions only.

In Campbell's first two seasons, the team often covered without winning. But over the past two years, the Lions have figured out how to win—and they're still covering.

Throughout his Lions tenure, Campbell has been strong in division (especially against LaFleur) and in primetime, but they have offered less value as home favorites.

Packers: Betting Trends

• HC Matt LaFleur: 59-43 ATS, 11.1% ROI | 68-34 ML, 16.7% ROI
• LaFleur on Road: 27-21 ATS, 8.3% ROI | 29-19 ML, 23.8% ROI
• LaFleur as Underdog: 24-12 ATS, 27.5% ROI | 20-16 ML, 44.3% ROI
• LaFleur as Road Underdog: 18-8 ATS, 32.3% ROI | 14-12 ML, 43.9% ROI
• LaFleur in Division: 19-14 ATS, 11.6% ROI | 23-10 ML, 18.0% ROI
• HC Matt LaFleur in Primetime: 19-12 ATS, 18.0 ROI% | 19-12 ML, 12.6% ROI
• HC Matt LaFleur With QB Jordan Love: 16-14 ATS, 2.2% | 17-13 ML, 15.6% ROI

LaFleur has been strong on the road and as a dog throughout his career … but he has nonexistent divisional splits, and his record has been less impressive ever since the team transitioned from QB Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.

Lions vs Packers Injury Report and External Factors

• Home-Field Advantage: The Packers are in division, and at Lambeau Field they have a hybrid surface at least somewhat similar to the turf at Ford Field. As a result, the Lions have a diminished HFA in this spot.
   
• Travel: Although the Packers are on the road, this is just their second away game since Week 9. They are definitely not weary from travel. For the Lions, this is their second straight home game and third in four weeks.
   
• Rest: Both teams played on Thanksgiving and thus have a rare full week of rest and prep despite playing on Thursday Night Football.

Lions: Notable Injuries

I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.

• LT Taylor Decker (knee): Trending toward missing his second straight game.
   
• EDGE Joshua Paschal (knee): Exited Week 13 early, yet to practice.
   
• DT Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring): Exited Week 13 early, yet to practice.
   
• DT D.J. Reader (shoulder): Missed practice on Monday and Tuesday.

I expect the Lions to be without their blindside protector and three key contributors on the defensive line.

Packers: Notable Injuries

• WR Romeo Doubs (concussion): Doubs is yet to return to full practice after missing last week, so I tentatively have him projected out for now, but his back-to-back limited practices on Monday and Tuesday are encouraging.
   
• CB Jaire Alexander (knee): Alexander has played just 10 snaps since Week 9, but his back-to-back limited practices give him a shot to return to action this week.
   
• LB Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring): Cooper is trending toward missing his third straight game after not practicing on Monday and Tuesday.  

The Packers aren't overly injured.

Same-Game Parlay For Lions vs Packers Week 14

• David Montgomery Anytime TD: -160
• David Montgomery Under 56.5 RuYds: -114
• SGP Odds: +285 (FanDuel)

If these two SGP legs were uncorrelated, then the fair value for this parlay (disregarding the real chances of the legs hitting) would be +205 (per our Fantasy Life Parlay Calculator).

But because these legs are inversely correlated, the odds have jumped up to +285, which creates excess value for us (in my opinion), because—although Montgomery's chances of scoring a TD are correlated with the number of rushing yards he gets—what will determine most whether Montgomery scores is not his rushing yardage but instead the number of opportunities he gets close to the goal line.

And that—his usage inside the five-yard line—has very little correlation with his rushing yardage.

Montgomery has 11 scrimmage TDs this year and has scored in nine of 12 games, so I like his chances of getting another TD on Thursday. And then I have him slightly projected to the under (55.1), so I like the idea of combining these two props.

SGP: Montgomery ATD & Under 56.5 RuYds (+285, FanDuel)

Glossary

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)
• Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)

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