
Matthew Freedman breaks down everything you need to know for the Lions vs Packers Week 14 TNF game, including fantasy rankings, betting trends, injuries, and more.

Week 14 kicks off with a divisional rivalry and Matthew Freedman is here with his Lions vs Packers Preview and Predictions:
In this breakdown of the Week 14 Lions-Packers Thursday Night Football matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via a boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 14 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of 3:15 p.m. ET on Tue., Dec. 3.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -3.5 means the Lions need to win by at least four points to cash. If the Packers win outright or manage to lose by no more than three, they cash. A total of 51.5 means that 52 or more points cashes the over and 51 or fewer points cashes the under. A -170 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $170 to win $100; a +158 ML, $100 to win $158.
I think these are spot-on numbers. This is the eighth time the Lions and Packers have faced each other with respective HCs Dan Campbell and Matt LaFleur.
At this point, the market has a strong sense of how this divisional matchup is likely to play out.
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | Jahmyr Gibbs | David Montgomery | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Jameson Williams | Tim Patrick | Allen Robinson | Sam LaPorta | Brock Wright | Shane Zylstra | Quarterback | Jordan Love | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | Josh Jacobs | Emanuel Wilson | Chris Brooks | Jayden Reed | Christian Watson | Dontayvion Wicks | Bo Melton | Malik Heath | Tucker Kraft | Ben Sims | John FitzPatrick |
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Lions in their skill-position groups for Week 14.
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Packers in their skill-position groups for Week 14.
Lions QB Jared Goff: I don't expect Goff to win MVP. His five-INT debacle against the Texans in Week 10 feels disqualifying almost all on its own, and he doesn't have the raw volume of passing production statistics that MVPs normally have.
Plus, he adds almost nothing as a runner (25-40-0 rushing).
But over the past decade, almost every MVP has been a top-two finisher in team seeding, composite EPA + CPOE, and AY/A.
As it happens, Goff comes quite close to checking the box in every category.
And if we remove Steelers QB Russell Wilson from consideration (given that he has started just six games), then Goff moves to No. 2 in AY/A.
At just +1400 (FanDuel), Goff is an MVP candidate a la 2023 Brock Purdy: No one really believes he's "worthy" of winning the award—but he's got a chance to do it because he has the numbers that matter.
And his MVP candidacy could get a big boost this week if he balls out against the Packers in primetime.
The situational spot for Goff is ideal: He's indoors at home, where he will have his second straight game and third in four weeks. And the matchup is also advantageous: The Packers are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (50.6%).
Only QBs Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold (nine each) have more multi-TD passing games than Goff does this year (eight). If he throws for two-plus scores again this week, expect to start hearing MVP chants at Ford Field.
From my Week 14 Freedman's Favorites (QB Edition).
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Lions have been one of the most profitable ATS teams this year, and over the past three seasons, they've had one of the league's best home-field advantages.
This year, the Packers haven't consistently covered, but they've won outright enough to be profitable—especially as road dogs.
Dan Campbell's data is with Lions only.
In Campbell's first two seasons, the team often covered without winning. But over the past two years, the Lions have figured out how to win—and they're still covering.
Throughout his Lions tenure, Campbell has been strong in division (especially against LaFleur) and in primetime, but they have offered less value as home favorites.
LaFleur has been strong on the road and as a dog throughout his career … but he has nonexistent divisional splits, and his record has been less impressive ever since the team transitioned from QB Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
I expect the Lions to be without their blindside protector and three key contributors on the defensive line.
The Packers aren't overly injured.
If these two SGP legs were uncorrelated, then the fair value for this parlay (disregarding the real chances of the legs hitting) would be +205 (per our Fantasy Life Parlay Calculator).
But because these legs are inversely correlated, the odds have jumped up to +285, which creates excess value for us (in my opinion), because—although Montgomery's chances of scoring a TD are correlated with the number of rushing yards he gets—what will determine most whether Montgomery scores is not his rushing yardage but instead the number of opportunities he gets close to the goal line.
And that—his usage inside the five-yard line—has very little correlation with his rushing yardage.
Montgomery has 11 scrimmage TDs this year and has scored in nine of 12 games, so I like his chances of getting another TD on Thursday. And then I have him slightly projected to the under (55.1), so I like the idea of combining these two props.
SGP: Montgomery ATD & Under 56.5 RuYds (+285, FanDuel)
Unlock all of the tools you need to dominate betting every NFL game with FantasyLife+ Tier 2 below!



