
Matthew Freedman breaks down the final Sunday Night Football game of the season between the Lions and Vikings, including player projections, betting trends, fantasy rankings, and more.

In this breakdown of the Week 18 Lions-Vikings Sunday Night Football matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Thu., Jan. 2, 6:30 p.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
The stakes for this game couldn't be higher. Whoever wins secures an NFC North title, the No. 1 seed, and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. Whoever loses becomes the first 14-win wildcard team in NFL history. Unreal stuff.
This is the definition of primetime must-watch football.
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -2.5 means the Lions need to win by at least three points to cash. If the Vikings win outright or lose by no more than two, they cash. A total of 56 means that 57 or more points cashes the over, 55 or fewer points cashes the under, and 56 pushes. A -148 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $148 to win $100; a +130 ML, $100 to win $130.
As you'll see with my projections, I like the Lions in this spot, and I expect we'll see points.
This game has the highest over/under of the season, and of all the games played this year the Lions have had the four biggest pre-game market totals.
Even if the game ultimately goes under the total, I think we'll see lots of scoring.
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: DET 30, MIN 24.
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | Vikings Week 18 Player Projections | Quarterback | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | ||||||
| Cam Akers | 4.2 | 17.4 | 0.15 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 0.04 | 3.7 | ||
| Ty Chandler | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.01 | 0.5 | ||
| Justin Jefferson | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 6.7 | 92.2 | 0.56 | 16 | ||
| Jordan Addison | 0.2 | 1 | 0.02 | 4.7 | 62.3 | 0.46 | 11.6 | ||
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 0.17 | 3.7 | ||
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 0.4 | 0.01 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 0.02 | 0.8 | ||
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 0.03 | 0.7 | ||
| T.J. Hockenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | 47.7 | 0.31 | 9 | ||
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 13.1 | 0.11 | 2.6 | ||
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 0.06 | 1 |
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Lions in their skill-position groups for Week 18.
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
This team is full of fantasy studs, and the Lions are fully motivated to win. Start 'em all per usual.
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Vikings in their skill-position groups for Week 18.
The fantasy quintet of Darnold, Jones, Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson is almost as good as that of Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta. Maybe even better.
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson and WR Brandon Powell opened their careers with the Lions before finding their way to Minnesota.
In the words of Mary, Queen of Scots: “No more tears now; I will think about revenge.”
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Lions have once again been strong ATS and ML this year, although less so at home.
As good as the Lions have been this year ATS and ML … the Vikings have been better—and they've been especially strong as dogs.
Dan Campbell's data is with Lions only.
What started as covering in 2021-22 has manifested itself as winning and covering in 2023-24.
Campbell has always been strong in division (particularly against O'Connell), and Goff has historically provided almost all his betting value when playing in a dome.
With Campbell, the Lions have been solid in all situations, but this is an especially good spot for them.
O'Connell has been strong on the road but weak in division.
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
The Lions have a lot of defensive players on IR, but the active roster is almost fully healthy.
The Vikings are largely healthy.
Gibbs has played in eight games in which No. 2 RB David Montgomery has either been out or played no more than 30% of the snaps.
In those eight games, he has converted 135 carries, 44 targets, and 1,000 yards into eight TDs.
Given that the Lions are favored and this game has a season-high total of 56, the Lions are likely to score a lot of points. It's reasonable to project that some of those will come via the ground game—and that probably means Gibbs.