Lions/Bears Thanksgiving Game Model: Score Predictions, Best Bets, and More
Matthew Freedman reveals the Lions-Bears Thanksgiving Game Model, featuring projected boxscores, player stats, best bets and more.
For this breakdown of the Week 13 Lions-Bears Thanksgiving Day matchup, my model has generated player stats and a final score — a predicted boxscore, really. These projections should be useful as a resource for fantasy, betting, and should be fun just for football fans who enjoy peering into the future.
I also provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.), highlight any potential best bets I have on the game, and note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about.
Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
Also, check out my breakdown for the Cowboys-Giants Thanksgiving Day game.
For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 13 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Wed., Nov. 27.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 50% off using the code BF50 with our Black Friday special. Treat yourself. But if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Lions-Bears Betting Markets
- Spread & Total: DET -9.5 | O/U 48.5
- DET ML: -470 (DraftKings)
- CHI ML: +430 (Caesars)
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -9.5 means the Lions need to win by at least 10 points to cash. If the Bears win outright or manage to lose by no more than nine, they cash. A total of 48.5 means that 49 or more points cashes the over and 48 or fewer points cashes the under. A -470 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $470 to win $100; a +430 ML, $100 to win $430.
I can't imagine being a living human in our current time and place and betting against the Lions. Of course, I probably could've just said, “I can't imagine being a living human …”
That also works.
It is notable that earlier this week this number was -11 and now it has moved below the key number of -10 at most books. The people who move markets—the sharp bettors with big money—like the Bears.
Obviously … I'm not one of those people.
Lions-Bears Implied Team Totals
- DET Team Total: 29
- CHI Team Total: 19.5
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Lions-Bears Betting Projections
- Spread: DET -10.25
- Total: 46.8
- ML: +/-464.5
Lions-Bears Projected Final Score
- Lions: 28.5
- Bears: 18.3
Lions-Bears Projected Odds to Win
- Lions: 82.3%
- Bears: 17.7%
Lions: Projected Boxscores
Quarterbacks
| Jared Goff | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | Jahmyr Gibbs | David Montgomery | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Jameson Williams | Tim Patrick | Allen Robinson | Sam LaPorta | Brock Wright | Shane Zylstra | Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | D'Andre Swift | Roschon Johnson | DJ Moore | Keenan Allen | Rome Odunze | Cole Kmet | Gerald Everett | Marcedes Lewis |
|---|
Freedman's Favorites
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs: No. 2 RB David Montgomery (shoulder) exited last week with an injury and finished the game on the sideline. Montgomery expects to play on Thanksgiving, but that's not a guarantee, and even if he does suit up he could have a scaled-back workload.
And that makes Gibbs incredibly enticing. Gibbs already has a high fantasy floor with 90-plus yards or a TD from scrimmage in every game this year, and if Montgomery is out or limited then Gibbs could have a ceiling to celebrate.
In the games in which Montgomery has either been out entirely or had a snap share of less than 30%, Gibbs has had strong usage and usually good production.
- Week 3 (2023): 82 yards, 0 TDs | 17 carries, 2 targets
- Week 7 (2023): 126 yards, 1 TD | 11 carries, 10 targets
- Week 8 (2023): 189 yards, 1 TD | 26 carries, 5 targets
- Week 12 (2023): 73 yards, 0 TDs | 11 carries, 8 targets
- Week 12 (2024): 99 yards, 2 TDs | 21 carries, 3 targets
Even if Montgomery plays fully, Gibbs could have expanded usage as a double-digit home favorite on the team with a week-high implied point total (29).
Gibbs has flashed (177 yards, 2 TDs on 19 carries, 10 targets) in his two career games against the Bears, who are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (5.6%, per FTN) and without DT Andrew Billings (pectoral, IR).
From my Week 13 Freedman's Favorites (RB Edition).
Bears WR DJ Moore: Playing with limited recovery time, the Lions could be without No. 1 CB Carlton Davis (knee, thumb), who exited Week 12 early. In his two games with interim OC Thomas Brown, Moore has converted a sleek 100% of his 14 targets into 14-168-1 receiving, to which he has added 2-18-0 rushing and a pass attempt. In two games against Lions DC Aaron Glenn's unit last year, Moore had 13-164-2 receiving on 19 targets with 3-20-1 rushing.
From my Week 13 Freedman's Favorites (WR Edition).
Lions: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 9-2, 55.9% ROI | Favorites: 8-2, 52.2% ROI | Home: 4-1, 51.2% ROI
- ML: 10-1, 32.6% ROI | Favorites: 9-1, 26.0% ROI | Home: 4-1, 1.9% ROI
- Under: 6-5, 4.1% ROI | Home: 2-3, -23.8% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Lions have outperformed market expectations more than any other team this year, and over the past three seasons they've had one of the league's best home-field advantages.
Bears: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 6-4-1, 14.3% ROI | Underdogs: 3-3-1, -2.6% ROI | Road: 1-3, -51.2% ROI
- ML: 4-7, -39.7% ROI | Underdogs: 1-6, -71.1% ROI | Road: 0-4, -100% ROI
- Under: 7-4, 22.2% ROI | Road: 4-0, 92.8% ROI
The Bears have been an under team, especially on the road, where they have generally disappointed, particularly when it comes to, you know, "winning games."
Lions: Betting Trends
- HC Dan Campbell on Thanksgiving: 2-1 ATS, 29.0% | 0-3 ML, -100% ROI
- HC Dan Campbell: 46-19 ATS, 35.0% ROI | 36-28-1 ML, 6.3% ROI
- HC Dan Campbell at Home: 23-9 ATS, 37.3% ROI | 20-12 ML, 18.5% ROI
- HC Dan Campbell in Division: 15-5 ATS, 42.8% ROI | 13-7 ML, 35.6% ROI
- HC Dan Campbell vs. Matt Eberflus: 2-2 ATS, -5.5% ROI | 3-1 ML, 25.3% ROI
Dan Campbell's data is with Lions only.
Lions players are aware that they're yet to win on Thanksgiving in Campbell's tenure. They're motivated—and motivation has never been a problem with this team, anyway.
For years, even when the Lions lost, they still covered. And now that they've figured out how to win over the past two seasons, they're still covering.
And when they struggled to get victories in the first two years with Campbell, the Lions still always played well in division. Against the Bears, though, and defensive HC Matt Eberflus, Campbell's team has had only modest success. The sample is small, but it's worth noting.
Even so, I'm not worried about the Lions taking care of business in this spot: They're at home, where they've consistently closed out games throughout the Campbell era.
Bears: Betting Trends
- HC Matt Eberflus: 19-24-2 ATS, -14.9% | 14-31 ML, -32.9% ROI
- HC Matt Eberflus as Underdog: 14-19-2 ATS, -17.7% | 7-28 ML, -44.9% ROI
- HC Matt Eberflus on Road: 7-14 ATS, -36.3% | 3-18 ML, -54.4% ROI
Eberflus hasn't covered himself in glory with the Bears … and he's been at his worst (relative to market expectations) on the road and as an underdog.
I'm sure that won't matter this week. (I'm using my sarcastic voice. I literally said that aloud as I typed it.)
Lions-Bears External Factors
- Home-Field Advantage: It's cut in half because the Bears are in division, but the Lions still have an edge because the Bears play on grass at Soldier Field.
- Travel: The Bears are coming off a rare three-game homestand and haven't been on the road since Nov. 3, whereas the Lions are returning home off a 5-of-7 away stretch.
Lions: Notable Injuries
- RB David Montgomery (shoulder): Given that he got in a limited practice on Tuesday, I tentatively expect him to play, but that's far from guaranteed.
- WR Kalif Raymond (foot, IR): He's confirmed out and now hoping to return before the playoffs.
- LT Taylor Decker (knee): He hasn't practiced yet this week. I assume he's out.
- CB Carlton Davis (knee): He also hasn't practiced this week after exiting Sunday early. I doubt he suits up.
The Lions could be without their primary goal-line back, their blindside protector, and the No. 1 perimeter defender.
That doesn't sound good. At the same time, if there's one team I'd expect to withstand such losses, it's the Lions: They have a deep roster and strong "next man up" ethos.
Bears: Notable Injuries
- RG Ryan Bates (concussion): Will miss his second straight game.
- FS Elijah Hicks (ankle): Also out for a second week.
These injuries don't help the Bears, but overall the active roster is healthy.
Lions-Bears #RevengeGames
"If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?"
Bears RB D'Andre Swift opened his career with the 2020-22 Lions, who then replaced him in 2023 by drafting RB Jahmyr Gibbs and signing RB David Montgomery … who himself left the Bears in free agency after playing with them for the first four years of his career (2019-22).
And don't forget about Lions WR Allen Robinson! (Cough.) He had some of the best years of his career with the 2018-21 Bears, but since then he has been a bona fide journeyman with stops on four teams in three years.
Last week he had a 5% route rate and zero targets. Even so, #RevengeGame!
Lions-Bears Best Bet
The Lions have a travel-and-health disadvantage, and their strong home-field advantage is diminished against a divisional opponent … but I don't think that matters.
This is the Lions.
They don't play down to the level of their opponents. They don't have letdown spots. They don't take it easy once they have a lead.
I have this spread projected on the other side of -10, so I would be willing to bet it up to -9.5 (-110).
And I also like under 48.5 (-110), given how uninspiring the Bears have been on the road and as dogs. I have this total projected just on the other side of the key number of 47.
But if I had to choose just one bet for this game, it without question would be the Lions.
Best Bet: Lions -8.5 (-110, Circa)
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
Premium
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.
