Men's Olympic Basketball Bets: Top Picks for Team USA vs. Brazil

As much as some things change, some things stay the same.

There was plenty of talk leading up to the Olympics about how the US men’s basketball squad was no longer a superpower. It’s clear that the rest of the world has gotten better, but the US still rolled to a perfect 3-0 record and a +64 point differential. That was more than enough to secure the top seed heading into the knockout rounds.

Their reward for finishing with the top seed? A first-round matchup vs. Brazil, which is arguably the worst remaining team in the field.

They’re technically ranked ahead of Greece in the FIBA rankings, but Greece has a two-time NBA MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Brazil has just one player currently in the NBA--Gui Santos--who appeared in just 23 games for the Warriors last season.

On paper, this is a massive mismatch. But as they say, the games aren’t played on paper.

Will Team USA take care of business, or can the Brazilians give them a scare? Let’s dive to my best bets for Team USA vs. Brazil in the Quarterfinal Round of the Paris Olympics.

Best Bet for Team USA vs. Brazil

Brazil +27.5 (-110; BetMGM)

After starting the Olympics with a tough matchup vs. Nikola Jokic and Serbia, the USA will square off with their third straight “easy” opponent. They’ve been favored by nearly 30 points in each of their past two contests, and they’ve failed to cover the spread in both.

It’s not necessarily for a lack of motivation, either. The USA was nearly upset by South Sudan in the exhibitions, so they were not going to be caught off guard by the African squad again. They were playing for point differential vs. Puerto Rico, so they had plenty of incentive in both instances.

Brazil should be the toughest test for the USA since Serbia. They may not have a ton of current NBA talent, but they’re a veteran-laden squad with lots of experience. Raul Neto spent eight seasons in the NBA. Bruno Caboclo is no longer “two years away from being two years away,” evidenced by his 33-point, 17-rebound performance in a must-win game vs. Japan. Overall, the team has six players averaging at least eight points per game during the Olympics.

Brazil played everyone extremely tough during the group stages. They lost by 12 points to France and 13 points to Germany, two of the best non-US squads in the tournament. Caboclo didn’t even score vs. France, and they still managed to hang with the host nation.

Brazil is not going to be scared of squaring off with the USA. They’re extremely physical, with USA coach Steve Kerr calling them the best offensive-rebounding team in the tournament.

The odds of Brazil upsetting the Americans are slim to none – and I’m leaning more towards none – but there are plenty of scenarios where this game stays somewhat competitive. If South Sudan and Puerto Rico can stick within 30 points of the Americans, I see no reason why Brazil can’t do the same.

More Bets for Team USA vs. Brazil

Bruno Caboclo Under 14.5 points (-105; DraftKings)

This feels like the perfect time to sell high on Caboclo.

He’s coming off one of the best performances of his career vs. Japan, but he has struggled mightily against the two premier squads he’s faced during the Olympics. He was 0-3 with zero points vs. France, and he followed that up with six points on 3-6 shooting vs. Germany. He played just 11 and 13 minutes in those contests before erupting in his last outing.

Even if Caboclo’s minutes don’t regress vs. Team USA, it’s a significantly tougher matchup. He’s not going to shoot 68.4% from the field like he did vs. Japan, and he’s definitely not knocking down four three-pointers. I think this line is at least a couple of points too high, and the Under is down to -130 on BetMGM.

LeBron James Over 14.5 points (-120; BetMGM)

LeBron has had a pretty easy Olympics so far. He’s logged 20.7 minutes or fewer in back-to-back games, and he hasn’t needed to be particularly aggressive on offense. Against Puerto Rico, he took just six shots in his 18 minutes of court time.

Now that we’ve entered the elimination portion of the competition, I’m expecting LeBron to be far more involved. Against Serbia – the toughest matchup the USA has faced so far – James led the team with 26.9 minutes and 13 shot attempts. He finished with 21 points in that contest, so I’m expecting LeBron to crank the production up a bit vs. Brazil.