Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

Both of these squads made the playoffs last year, and both teams won at least 13 games. That said, they had wildly different paths to victory.

The Eagles were arguably the best team in football, posting the top yardage differential and third-best points differential in the league, while the Vikings relied on winning close games.

They were an NFL-record 11-0 in one-score games, making them a prime regression candidate entering 2023.

Sure enough, it didn’t take long for the Vikings to lose a one-score game this season.

They lost by three points at home to a lowly Buccaneers squad despite entering the game as nearly seven-point favorites.

Ironically, unlike so many of their wins in 2022, this was a game the Vikings probably deserved to win.

They out-gained the Buccaneers by 127 yards but were done in by three turnovers. Two of those turnovers occurred in or around the red zone, taking at least six points off the scoreboard, while the third took place deep in their own territory. The Buccaneers scored a field goal off that mishap, so most of the Vikings' wounds were self-inflicted.

On the other side, the Eagles had a win that would make the 2022 version of the Vikings feel right at home.

They were out-gained by the Patriots by more than 130 yards, and they had to make a late defensive stand deep in their own territory to keep the Patriots from earning a win.

Ultimately, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the Patriots outplayed the Eagles in Foxborough.

Despite both results being somewhat misleading, they’ve still had a slight impact on the spread. The Eagles were listed as seven-point favorites on the lookahead line, but that figure has increased to 7.5 across most of the industry.

Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Kirk Cousins hasn’t been an underdog of this size very often in his career, but he has historically taken advantage. He’s 4-2 against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, including 1-0 with the Vikings.

That said, this game will be played on Thursday night, and Cousins has historically struggled in primetime games.

He’s 46-37-2 ATS when playing at 1 p.m. ET, but his record drops to 21-30 ATS when playing at 4 p.m. ET or later. That might just be a weird quirk, but the narrative that Cousins struggles under the bright lights is very real in the eyes of the public.

One thing that should help Cousins is the presence of Justin Jefferson, who picked up right where he left off to start the new season. He was basically unguardable in Week 1, racking up nine catches for 150 yards. He didn’t find the end zone, but defenses are going to struggle to contain Jefferson all year long.

T.J. Hockenson also appears poised for a big game. The Eagles possess some outstanding cornerbacks, with four players earning top-27 grades at the position per Pro Football Focus in 2022.

Unsurprisingly, teams were happy to avoid those players and lean a bit heavier than usual on the tight end.

We saw the Patriots have plenty of success throwing to the tight end position in Week 1, with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki combining for eight catches, 92 yards, and a touchdown.

Irv Smith Jr. had a big game for the Vikings in this matchup last year, racking up a season-high eight targets, so Hockenson could be busy.

Ultimately, this line feels like a bit of an overreaction based on one subpar result.

I still don’t think the Vikings are a particularly good football team, but they’re better than what they showed vs. the Buccaneers. Whatever their best game is, I expect to see it on Thursday.