MLB Bets Today - Best Bets For Tuesday, May 14th

Tuesday features another full slate of action on the diamond when looking at our favorite MLB bets today.

There are two afternoon games sprinkled in, but one of them is part of a doubleheader. That means we still have a strong 14-game main slate to choose from.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Tuesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Tuesday, May 14

New York Yankees-Minnesota Twins Under 8.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Tuesday’s matchup between the Yankees and Twins features a strong pitching matchup. Carlos Rodon will get the ball for the Yankees, and he’s bounced back nicely after a disastrous debut season. Rodon owns an outstanding 116 Stuff+ rating, meaning he boasts one of the filthiest sets of pitches in baseball. His slider is particularly deadly, with his 141 Stuff+ making it the third-best slider in all of baseball.

Rodon’s biggest issue is control, but he’s been much better in that department of late. He’s handed out just one free pass over his past three outings, which have all come against strong offensive teams. The Twins are another tough matchup, but Rodon seems up to the task.

On the other side, Chris Paddack has pitched extremely well of late for the Twins. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his past four starts, and he’s had double-digit strikeouts in two of them.

The conditions also look favorable for the pitchers. The wind is expected to be blowing in directly from centerfield at approximately eight miles per hour. That’s going to help keep some deep fly balls in the ballpark.

Add it all up, and Under 8.5 makes a lot of sense.

Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs. Cincinnati Reds (-118; FanDuel)

Hunter Greene is like that piece of cheesecake that you see on the dessert cart. It always looks amazing, but in the end, you know it’s not worth the calories.

In terms of Stuff+, Greene has been the second-best pitcher in baseball this season. Only Jared Jones from the Pirates has been better, and those two clear the rest of the field by a pretty wide margin.

That’s great for Greene; the only issue is it doesn’t seem to lead to good results. His walk rate is in the 11th percentile, so opposing hitters have been able to lay off his nasty offerings. That becomes particularly true the more each batter gets to see him. His strikeout-to-walk ratio decreases from 3.71 the first time through the lineup to 2.86 the second and 1.00 the third.

The Diamondbacks’ lineup seems particularly well-equipped for this matchup. They have the third-highest walk rate and 10th-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season. Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with them at home as small favorites.

More MLB Bets for Tuesday, May 14

Nationals ML at White Sox Game 2 (-108)

Taking the second game in a doubleheader before Game 1 is always a bit risky. There’s a chance that the Nationals could use all their top relievers in the first contest, which would put them at a disadvantage in Game 2. Still, I give the Nats a significant edge at starting pitcher with Trevor Williams on the bump. He owns an outstanding 2.99 xERA this season, while Chris Flexen has a 4.38 xERA for the White Sox. The Nats have also been the better offensive team this season – they’re 19th in runs per game, Chicago 30th – so -108 has the potential to be an excellent bargain. Depending on how the first game plays out, this number could easily eclipse -125.

Cubs ML at Braves (+170)

Let’s go hunting for a long shot. The Cubs were shut out by the Braves on Monday, and things aren’t going to get any easier vs. Chris Sale. He’s looked as dominant as ever in his first year in Atlanta, pitching to a 2.84 xERA. However, the Cubs rank third in wRC+ vs. left-handers, and they’ll have a quality starter of their own on the bump in Jameson Taillon. Taillon doesn’t have the same jaw-dropping stuff as Sale, but his 2.28 xERA through four starts makes him just as effective.

Pirates ML at Brewers (+140)

When your pitching staff features Jared Jones and Paul Skenes, it’s easy to get overlooked. That’s what has happened to Quinn Priester, who was a pretty good prospect in his own right. Priester was roughed up in his first year in the big leagues, but he’s made some improvements in Year 2. Specifically, his 62.7% groundball rate is one of the top marks in the league. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground, it’s going to limit the amount of damage that opposing offenses can do. The Brewers have the sixth-highest groundball rate against right-handers this season, so this sets up as a strong matchup for him as well.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.71 units)
Season: 82-86-6 (-10.02 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.