MLB Bets Today - Best Bets For Wednesday, May 15th

Wednesday’s are always a solid day on the diamond. All 30 teams are slated to be in action, with a nice mixture of afternoon and evening contests. Seven games will start at 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier, with the other eight games taking place at night.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Wednesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, May 15

Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs. Cincinnati Reds (-145; Caesars)

Brandon Pfaadt will get the ball for the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, and he’s a pitcher I’m going to continue to buy in the betting market. His overall results this season have been mediocre – 4.60 ERA, 1-3 record – but his advanced metrics are far more impressive.

Pfaadt’s xERA sits at 3.37, while his pitch modeling metrics remain solidly above average. He’s No. 23 among qualified starters in Stuff+ and No. 13 in Pitching+. Pfaadt’s biggest shortcoming has been his strand rate, which sits at just 60.8%. If he can improve in that department moving forward, his actual metrics should settle a lot closer to his expected ones.

On the other side, Andrew Abbott has clearly been fortunate to start the year. He has a .258 BABIP and an 85.8% strand rate, which has helped him keep runs off the scoreboard (3.35 ERA).

Pfaadt grades out significantly better in most of the advanced metrics, so I give him a clear edge in this contest. I’d play the Diamondbacks up to -155.

Seattle Mariners F5 ML vs. Kansas City Royals (-145; Caesars)

Bryan Woo has made just one start for the Mariners this season, but it was extremely impressive. He pitched 4.1 scoreless innings, allowing just two total baserunners vs. the A’s. He finished that outing with a 1.43 xERA and a .150 xBA, and the pitch modeling metrics loved his performance as well (113 Stuff+).

I doubt Woo will pitch to a sub-2.00 xERA all season, but he’s clearly a better pitcher than Alec Marsh for the Royals. Marsh is the definition of replacement level. His ERA currently sits at 2.53, but his xERA is nearly two full runs higher (4.24). His strikeout rate sits in the 26th percentile, while most of his Statcast numbers are subpar as well.

The Mariners also have the edge in the batter’s box, ranking as the superior squad vs. right-handed pitching. I prefer the first five moneyline as opposed to the full game.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, May 15

Mets-Phillies Under 7.5 (-110)

This is a classic “wind blowing in” under. The current forecast calls for winds above 10 miles per hour blowing in from right centerfield, which is going to help the pitchers keep the ball in the ballpark. Speaking of pitchers, the fact that Ranger Suarez will get the ball for the Phillies doesn’t hurt either. He’s been nothing short of phenomenal to start the year, posting a 1.50 ERA and a 2.21 xERA through his first eight outings.

Cubs ML at Braves (+150)

The Cubs will have Javier Assad on the mound on Wednesday, who has excelled at keeping runs off the scoreboard this season. Assad boasts a 1.70 ERA, and while he doesn’t pile up strikeouts like a traditional ace pitcher, he’s effective at limiting the damage on balls in play. I still make him an underdog against Charlie Morton and the Braves, but +150 feels a bit disrespectful.

Orioles F5 ML vs. Blue Jays (-122)

Kyle Bradish was one of my favorite pitchers to bet on last year. He was one of the top starters in the league in terms of Stuff+, and he responded with a 2.34 ERA over the second half of the year. He was particularly good at home (2.23 ERA), and he’s picked up right where he left off in 2024. Bradish owns a 1.86 ERA and 2.61 xERA through his first two starts, so I like his chances against Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays over the first five innings.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-4 (-1.63 units)
Season: 83-90-6 (-11.65 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.