MLB Bets Today - Bets For Monday, April 15
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite MLB bets today for Monday, April 15, including bets on the New York Mets and more.
Today, baseball honors one of the biggest pioneers in sports history: Jackie Robinson. He broke the MLB color barrier on this day in 1947, and sports haven’t been the same since. Athletes of all different backgrounds have found success in every major American sport, and Robinson opened the eyes for a lot of the closed-minded decision-makers behind the scenes.
In 1997, the MLB retired Robinson’s No. 42 for not just for the Dodgers – the team he spent his entire career with – but for the entire league. The only time you will see No. 42s on a baseball field is on April 15th, when every player honors his legacy by donning his legendary number.
The league will also honor Robinson by having every team scheduled to play on Monday. That’s an outlier, with Monday typically serving as a lighter day on the MLB schedule. As bettors, that’s a welcome sight.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite wagers for Monday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Monday, April 15
New York Mets ML vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-125; DraftKings)
I’ve backed the Mets a bunch recently, and it has nothing to do with the fact that they’re the team I grew up rooting for. The Mets lost five straight games to start the year, which caused them to become undervalued in the betting market. They’ve bounced back since then, racking up seven wins in their past 10 contests, and their pitching has exceeded expectations to start the year.
They’ll have Adrian Houser on the bump on Monday, and he’s pitched better than his numbers suggest. His Stuff+ rating has actually increased from last year, so he’s a progression candidate moving forward.
On the other side, Martin Perez seems prime for regression moving forward. He has a 1.89 ERA through his first three starts, but most of the major projection systems had him pegged for a mid-fours ERA in 2024.
The Mets are the better team offensively, and their bullpen is arguably better as well. I like them as small home favorites.
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Cincinnati Reds-Seattle Mariners F5 Under 4.0 (-125; BetMGM)
This is a pitching matchup I have my eye on for Monday, with Frankie Montas taking on George Kirby. Montas has been outstanding to start the year for the Reds, pitching to a 2.16 ERA and a 2.78 xERA through his first three outings. Overall, he seems fully recovered from the injuries that cost him nearly all of last season with the Yankees.
Kirby hasn’t been nearly as effective for the Mariners, but he has a strong pedigree. He’s pitched to a 3.39 ERA or better in the past two years, but he’s currently sitting at 8.16. Fortunately, his advanced metrics are basically in line with his marks from last year (3.67 xERA, 2.97 FIP). That gives him plenty of room to improve moving forward.
Add it all up, and runs should be at a premium with these two guys on the bump. I’ll grab the under for the first five innings.
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More MLB Bets for Monday, April 15
Brewers ML vs. Padres (-104) – Another day, another opportunity to back the Brewers. Joe Ross has pitched great for Milwaukee this season, posting a 1.80 ERA and 2.80 xERA, while Joe Musgrave has struggled for the Padres. I give the Brewers the edge in the bullpen, so I’ll back them as slight home underdogs vs. San Diego.
Braves-Astros Over 10.0 (-110) – Spencer Arrighetti vs. Darius Vines sounds like a formula for scoring. Arrighetti allowed seven runs in his first three innings this season, while Vines posted a 5.58 xFIP in limited opportunities in 2023. Both of these offenses can score runs, so I’ll take the over on Monday.
Luis Gil Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120) – Gil has been a prime target for me in the strikeout market this season, and I’m going back to the well vs. the Blue Jays. He was dominant from a strikeout perspective during Spring Training, and he has a 14.0 K/9 through two starts this year. He has at least six punchouts in both starts, including eight vs. the Blue Jays in his last outing.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-1-2 (+0.50 units)
- Season: 32-25-2 (+0.26 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.