MLB Bets Today - Bets for Wednesday, April 10
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite MLB bets today for Wednesday, April 10, including bets on the New York Mets, the White Sox, and more.
After a few tough days, we got back in the win column with a 4-1 day on Tuesday.
It couldn’t been even better, but Nate Eovaldi struck out his eighth batter with his final pitch vs. the A’s. That killed our Under 7.5 strikeouts prop and our dreams of a perfect day.
Regardless, we’re on to Wednesday, which offers up nearly a full slate. All but two teams are slated to be in action, so there are plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market. Let’s dive into five of my favorite offerings.
MLB Bets Today – Wednesday, April 10
New York Mets F5 ML at Atlanta Braves (+140; Caesars)
The Mets season couldn’t have started any worse, but they’ve started to turn things around. They won two out of three games on the road vs. the Reds, and they took the opener of their series vs. the Braves. They even managed to trim a six-run deficit to one in yesterday’s loss, so they’ve been much more competitive.
They were originally slated to face Spencer Strider on Wednesday, but Strider’s injury means they’ll face Allan Winans instead. That’s a monster upgrade. Strider is one of the best pitchers in baseball, while Winans struggled to a 5.29 ERA in six starts last year.
The Mets will turn to Jose Quintana, who is a reliable left-handed arm. He’s been far from dominant this season, but he’s been able to survive whenever he’s gotten into trouble. He’s posted a 2.61 ERA, so he’s kept the Mets in the game when he’s been on the bump.
Ultimately, I give the Mets a solid edge in the starting pitcher department, which makes them appealing targets as underdogs on the first five moneyline. Atlanta’s bullpen was solid last year, so I’d rather leave them out of the equation.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
White Sox-Guardians F5 Under 4.0 (-110; BetMGM)
This contest features an intriguing pitching matchup between Tanner Bibee and Erick Fedde. Bibee was excellent as a rookie in 2023, pitching to a 2.98 ERA and 3.52 FIP across 25 starts. His strikeout numbers are up to start 2024, and he should have no problems mowing through a White Sox lineup playing without Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada. They’re dead last in runs per game, and without two of their best hitters, things don’t figure to get much better.
The Guardians have been significantly better offensively this year, but Fedde will test them. He returned to the MLB after winning Korea’s equivalent of the Cy Young award in 2023, and he’s posted a 2.79 ERA and 10.24 K/9 in his first two starts back in the States. His advanced stats show he’s due for a bit of regression, but there’s no guarantee it will happen on Wednesday.
You could play the full game under in this spot, but Chicago’s bullpen scares me. They had the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in 2023, and they’re expected to be equally bad this year. Going with the first five total means we don’t have to worry about their bullpen imploding in the later innings.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
More MLB Bets for Wednesday, April 10
Giants F5 ML vs. Nationals (-200) – Any time I can pick on Patrick Corbin at a reasonable price, I’m going to do it. -200 might not seem reasonable to most, but it translates to an implied probability of just 66.67%. With the Giants starting Jordan Hicks – owner of a 0.75 ERA and 1.98 xERA this season – I think the true odds are much greater.
Rays ML at Angels (-135) – It hasn’t been a great start to the year for the Rays, but their bats should wake up vs. Jose Soriano. He sports a 7.14 xERA and 8.56 FIP through his first two appearances in 2024, and this will be the first start of his career. Rays starter Zack Littell has a 0.82 ERA and 1.78 xERA, so they’ll have a significant advantage on the bump.
Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-145) – Cease is an excellent strikeout pitcher, but he’s yet to crack seven strikeouts in a start this season. I’m skeptical it happens vs. the Cubs. They rank 24th in strikeout rate vs. right-handers to start the year, so it’s a tough matchup. The Paydirt DFS simulations have him going under 7.5 at an 87.0% clip.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 4-1 (+1.4 units)
- Season: 23-18 (+0.39 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.