MLB Bets Today - MLB Picks For Thursday, April 25th

Thursday is a transitional day for baseball. Some teams are finishing up series that started on Monday, while other teams are starting four-game series that extend through the weekend. We’re getting more of the former this Thursday, which results in a lot of afternoon contests.

That’s not a bad thing. We’ll have plenty of other sports to focus on this evening – the NFL Draft and the NBA and NHL playoffs – so having the afternoon occupied by baseball is a nice treat. Nine of the 10 games on the schedule start at 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier, so make sure to get your bets in early.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Thursday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Thursday, April 25

Padres F5 ML at Rockies (-145; Caesars)

The Padres are priced as merely moderate favorites for the first five innings in Colorado, but I think that’s a mistake. They’ll send Randy Vasquez to the mound, who was impressive in his first start of the year. He pitched to a 1.80 ERA across five innings, and he displayed a strong pitch mix vs. the Blue Jays. His 114 Stuff+ was up compared to last season, and he had five different offerings grade out as above-average.

On the other side, the Rockies will turn to Dakota Hudson. He’s been an extremely mediocre pitcher over the past two seasons, and things don’t figure to get any better for him in the thin Rocky Mountain air. Hudson can generate groundballs at an above-average clip, but that’s really the only thing he has going for him. He owns a paltry 5.06 K/9 so far this season, and he’s walked nearly as many batters as he’s struck out.

The Padres also have a clear edge in this matchup offensively, so -145 is a very fair price for the first five innings.

Red Sox ML at Guardians (+120; DraftKings)

This play is all about fading Triston McKenzie, who has not been the same pitcher to start 2024. He owns a 5.00 ERA, and his advanced metrics are even worse (5.60 xERA, 6.60 FIP).

It’d be one thing if McKenzie was merely getting unlucky, but there are some concerning underlying metrics as well. His average fastball velocity is down nearly 1.5 miles per hour, and his strikeout rate has plummeted. He racked up 11.34 strikeouts per nine innings when he made his debut in 2020, but that figure is down to just 5.50 this season.

McKenzie is currently pitching with a torn ligament in his right elbow, which has had a massive impact on his effectiveness. He chose not to have surgery on his elbow last year, and he’s currently suffering the consequences.

Chase Anderson has pitched well for the Red Sox so far this season, and the bullpen owns a collective 3.64 ERA. They’ll utilize a bunch of relievers in Thursday’s contest, but I still give them a nice pitching edge in this matchup. The Guardians can score some runs, but with the wind potentially impacting scoring, I like the Red Sox’s chances of securing the upset.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, April 25

Blue Jays F5 ML at Royals (+102)

Cole Ragans entered the year with big expectations for the Royals, which makes his 4.32 ERA a bit of a disappointment. His advanced metrics show some room for progression, but Jose Berrios has been the better pitcher so far this season. He owns a sparkling 0.85 ERA through five starts, so I’ll take my chances with the Jays over the first five innings.

Cubs ML vs. Astros (+110)

The Astros have not looked like the Astros for most of the year, but they’ll have Justin Verlander on the bump for his second start of the year. They’re counting on Verlander to be the pitcher he was in his prime, but at 41-years-old, I’m skeptical he can still get the job done at a high level. He was passable in his debut, but that was against a weak Nationals lineup. Things will be much tougher vs. the Cubs.

Justin Verlander Under 5.5 strikeouts (+122)

Let’s double down on Verlander. He managed just four strikeouts in six innings in his debut, and his strikeout numbers were down in 2023 as well (7.98 K/9). He’ll likely need to go at least six innings to hit the over on 5.5 strikeouts on Thursday, and I think that’s far from a certainty. The +122 potential payout on this under is too good to pass up.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 3-2 (+0.245 units)
Season: 50-49-3 (-3.975 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.