MLB Bets Today - Picks for Friday, April 19th

After a quiet day on Thursday, baseball is back in full swing on Friday.

All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, and only one game starts before 6:40 p.m. ET. Overall, it’s a great night to park yourself in your favorite seat and take in all the action on the diamond.

Of course, every night is a great night to try and make some money. Let’s dive into five of my favorite MLB best bets for Friday’s MLB slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Friday, April 19

Philadelphia Phillies F5 ML vs. Chicago White Sox (-145; DraftKings)

There hasn’t been much to celebrate for the White Sox this season, but Garrett Crochet has developed into a frontline starting pitcher. He’s posted a 3.57 ERA through his first four starts, but that doesn’t tell the full story. His advanced metrics are even better: 12.31 K/9, 1.90 xERA, 2.28 FIP.

Still, Crochet plays for the White Sox, which means the wins are going to be few and far between. He’s just 1-2 on the season, with his team averaging a paltry 2.11 runs per game. That’s nearly a full run lower than the next worst team in baseball, so the White Sox’s offense has been beyond futile to start the year.

They’re going to have their hands full with Spencer Turnbull on Friday, who is currently undervalued in the betting market. He’s pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA through his first 15 innings, and his 3.39 xERA and 3.13 FIP suggest he’s been a well above-average starting pitcher.

It’s hard to pass up the Phillies vs. the worst team in the league at just -145 on the first five innings moneyline. That number is as high as -159 at some locations, and they’re -175 for the full game. The Phillies’ edge in the early innings won’t be as large as when they get to the bullpen, but -145 still represents a strong value.

Oakland Athletics ML at Cleveland Guardians (+145; BetMGM)

I think it would shock most casual baseball fans to know that the A’s are 8-11 to start the year. That’s still not good, but it’s far from apocalyptic. Their preseason win total was just 57.5, and they’re well on pace to clear that figure.

They’re in a good spot to pick up another win on Friday. They’re taking on Tristan McKenzie, who has struggled massively to start the year. He’s pitched to a 6.23 ERA, 6.40 xERA, and 7.20 FIP, and he’s walked 12 batters compared to just five strikeouts. His Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ are all down compared to last season, and The Athletic’s Eno Sarris ranks him as just the No. 121 pitcher in baseball.

With that in mind, it’s hard to justify the Guardians being -175 favorites on the moneyline. A’s starter Joe Boyle has graded out significantly better than McKenzie using the pitch modeling metrics, so they’re a very live dog at +145.

More MLB Bets for Friday, April 19

Red Sox ML at Pirates (-104) – The Pirates have a wealth of pitching prospects, and Quinn Priester will get the start vs. the Red Sox. Priester was once considered a Top 100 prospect, but his results aren’t nearly in the same stratosphere as guys like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. Brayan Bello is far more accomplished for the Red Sox, so I’ll take my chances with him as a small underdog.

Mets ML at Dodgers (+170) – No one should be panicking about the Dodgers just yet, but at 12-9, things haven’t gone how they hoped to start the year. The bottom of the order as been a disaster, while they’re merely 17th in team ERA. The Mets have been red hot recently, winning 10 of their past 13 games, and they’ll have a southpaw on the bump on Friday in Sean Manaea. The Dodgers haven’t hit nearly as well in that split, so this is a strong spot to target New York.

Tigers-Twins F5 Under 4.0 (-125) – Joe Ryan vs. Jack Flaherty is a good combination to keep runs off the board. Ryan has been excellent to start the year, pitching to a 2.60 ERA and a 2.15 xERA, while the Twins’ offense has been putrid. They’re 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so Flaherty should be able to hold up his end of the bargain.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 0-2-1 (-1.04 units)
Season: 39-35-1 (-1.71 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.

MLB Bets Today - Picks for Friday, April 19th