MLB Bets Today - Picks For Monday, April 22nd

After an early day on Sunday, baseball gets back into it’s normal routine on Monday. There are 11 games to choose from, and only one starts before 6:40 p.m. ET. The start of a new week also brings about a host of new matchups to choose from, so it’s one of my favorite days to bet on baseball.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Monday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, April 22

Arizona Diamondbacks ML at St. Louis Cardinals (-104; FanDuel)

On paper, the Diamondbacks appear to be at a pitching disadvantage in this contest. Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.32 ERA, while Lance Lynn has a 2.18 ERA for the Cardinals. However, the advanced metrics tell a different story.

Pfaadt has been extremely unlucky for the DBacks to start the year. His 3.62 xERA is nearly two runs lower than his actual mark, and he’s posted a 3.56 FIP or better in three of his four outings. He ranks 12th among all pitchers with at least 20 innings in Pitching+, so he’s been far better than his numbers would suggest.

On the other side, Lynn has clearly been fortunate for the Cardinals. His xERA and FIP both sit above 4.50, and he’s down at No. 88 at Pitching+. He’s even worse in terms of Stuff+, so his offerings have been extremely hittable. The only reason he’s managed to survive is a .241 BABIP that is due for regression.

This feels like the perfect opportunity to sell high on an overvalued starter and buy low on an undervalued one. I like the Diamondbacks up to -115.

Philadelphia Phillies ML at Cincinnati Reds (-122; FanDuel)

This is another matchup between two pitchers who are not being properly valued by the marketplace. Hunter Greene will get the ball for Cincinnati, and he looks like an ace pitcher. He has the pedigree – he was the No. 22 prospect back in 2022 – and his fastball routinely touches 100 miles per hour.

That said, he just hasn’t been effective. He’s posted an ERA of 4.44 or worse in his first two seasons, and he’s at 4.35 so far this year. He generates plenty of swings and misses, but when batters do manage to make contact, they tend to do significant damage.

Ranger Suarez doesn’t have the same “eye appeal” as Greene. He doesn’t have the big fastball, and he was not expected to be a star at the MLB level. Still, the guy just knows how to get people out. He burst onto the scene with a 1.36 ERA in 2021, and he’s been a mainstay in the Phillies’ rotation since then. He’s on pace for his best full season as a starter in 2024, racking up a 1.73 ERA and 2.03 xERA through his first four outings.

At worst, this is an even matchup on the mound, and I tend to think the Phillies have a slight edge. They also have the superior offense, so I think they’re undervalued at -122.

More MLB Bets for Monday, April 22

Rays ML vs. Tigers (-104)

The Tigers will have their ace on the bump in Tarik Skubal, but the Rays will counter with an excellent start of their own in Zack Littel. He owns a 2.14 ERA, 2.78 xERA, and 2.44 FIP through 21 innings this season, and he’s striking out a career-best 9.43 batters per nine innings. The Rays have the edge in the batter’s box, so I’ll take my chances against Skubal.

Mets ML at Giants (+100)

What more do the Mets have to prove to start getting some respect from the oddsmakers? They’ve won five straight series after a dreadful start of the year, including beating the Braves and Dodgers on the road. They’re underdogs once again on Monday, and they’ll have an exploitable matchup vs. Keaton Winn. He’s pitched to a 4.73 xERA, so I see no reason why the Mets can’t take care of business.

Keaton Winn Under 4.5 strikeouts (-105)

Let’s double down on Winn. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, posting a 6.95 K/9 through his first four starts. He had a 7.44 K/9 last year, so this isn’t exactly a new development. Strikeouts should be at a premium for Winn vs. the Mets, who have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitchers.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-4 (-1.94 units)
Season: 46-43-3 (-1.85 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.

MLB Bets Today - Picks For Monday, April 22nd