MLB Bets Today - Best Bets For Monday, May 13th

Mondays are typically a lighter day on the diamond… but not this Monday. All but two teams are scheduled to take the field, so we’ll have nearly a full slate to choose from. All 14 games will start in the evening, with the earliest first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays for Monday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, May 13

Seattle Mariners ML vs. Kansas City Royals (-150; BetMGM)

George Kirby doesn’t look like an ace pitcher on the surface. He has just a 4.15 ERA through his first eight starts, and he owns just a 3-3 record.

However, Kirby remains an advanced metrics darling. He possesses arguably the best command in all of baseball, walking just 2.8% of opposing batters. He’s No. 10 in Pitching+, while his 3.31 xERA suggests room for improvement moving forward.

Conversely, Brady Singer has outpitched all of his peripherals this season. His 2.36 ERA is nearly two full runs better than his xERA (4.01), while his velocity and pitch modeling metrics are down compared to last year.

The Mariners also have the edge out of the bullpen and in the batter’s box, so I’m happy to lay -150 in this spot.

Chicago Cubs-Atlanta Braves Under 8.0 (-115; DraftKings)

It’s always scary to take an under in a Braves game. Their offense has the potential to erupt at any point after tying the record for most homers in a season last year. The fact that the Braves did it in a year where the ball wasn’t traveling nearly as far goes to show just how much pop is in their lineup.

Still, their offense has cooled down a smidge of late. They’re down to sixth in runs per game this season, and they’re merely 17th in wRC+ against southpaws over the past 14 days.

They’ll be facing a really good left-hander Monday in Shota Imanaga. Imanaga has been absurd to start his MLB career, pitching to a 1.08 ERA through his first seven starts. He’s likely due for a bit of regression – he has a .239 BABIP and a 90.6% strand rate – but his 2.31 xERA still ranks in the 94th percentile.

The conditions in Atlanta also look favorable for pitching. The winds are expected to be blowing in at greater than 10 miles per hour from left field, which should help keep the ball in the stadium.

If Imanaga can keep the Braves’ potent offense at bay, Reynaldo Lopez should hold up his end of the bargain on the other side.

More MLB Bets for Monday, May 13

Brewers ML vs. Pirates (-142)

It’s an exciting time to be a Pirates fan. They have one of the most exciting pitching tandems in recent memory with Jared Jones and Paul Skenes, so they have plenty of reason for optimism moving forward. That said, neither of those guys will be on the bump on Monday, and their bullpen was heavily taxed over the weekend. Their offense also remains a disaster against right-handers, ranking dead last in wRC+ over the past 14 days. Pittsburgh’s time is coming, but it doesn’t figure to be Monday.

Rays-Red Sox F5 Under 4.0 (+100)

This matchup features a pair of strong pitchers in Zach Eflin and Kutter Crawford. Eflin has pitched to a 3.43 xERA this season, while Crawford is at 2.99. Neither of these offenses has been particularly potent to start the year – Boston is 16th in runs per game, Tampa Bay 20th – so I’m expecting a relatively low-scoring first five innings.

Mitch Keller Under 5.5 strikeouts (+110)

Keller has unders available at 6.5 (-165) and 5.5 (+110) for Monday’s start vs. the Brewers. I’m willing to shoot for the small figure in this spot. The Brewers are an average matchup for strikeout purposes, and Keller has had less than six punchouts in five of eight starts this season. He’s projected for less than five punchouts using the PayDirt DFS simulations, so I’ll take my chances at +110.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-4 (-2.15 units)
Season: 80-83-6 (-9.31 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.