MLB Bets Today - Picks for Sunday, April 21

Sunday means an early start for the baseball slate. All 30 teams are slated to take the field – including one doubleheader – but 10 of the 16 contests will start at 2:20 p.m. ET or later. That means that it’s a good idea to look at the betting market a bit earlier than usual.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite options for Sunday’s slate, starting with an under between two strong offenses.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, April 21

Tampa Bay Rays-New York Yankees Under 8.5 runs (-105; BetMGM)

This matchup features two pitchers who currently look undervalued: Aaron Civale and Luis Gil. Civale has been excellent in his first full season with the Rays, striking out a career-best 10.17 batters per nine innings while posting a 2.74 ERA. His 2.37 xERA is even better, so his production hasn’t felt particularly fluky, either. His 104 Pitching+ is also excellent, thanks in part to his devastating slider.

On the other side, Gil has displayed elite strikeout stuff since adding a changeup to his arsenal. He was fantastic in Spring Training, and he’s carried those results into the regular season: 12.86 K/9, 2.44 xERA. Walks remain a concern – he’s averaged 9.0 walks per nine innings through his first three starts – but they haven’t really burnt him yet.

These two squads have combined for eight runs or less in their first two meetings, and I think they make it three in a row on Sunday.

Toronto Blue Jays ML at San Diego Padres (+110; DraftKings)

Something is not right with Joe Musgrove at the moment. The right-hander has been an excellent pitcher over the past few seasons, posting an ERA of 3.18 or better in his first three years with the Padres, but he’s not been the same pitcher in 2024. He’s been rocked through his first five outings, posting a 6.29 ERA and 8.06 xERA.

There are some concerning signs that this isn’t just a blip on the radar for Musgrove. His fastball velocity is slightly down, and opposing batters are seeing him really well at the moment. His strikeout rate has plummeted, and hitters are squaring up the pitches in the zone. Musgrove ranks in the first percentile in expected batting average and third percentile in expected wOBA.

Chris Bassitt will take the mound for the Blue Jays, and he’s a rock-solid starter. He’s not going to blow you away, but he always seems to keep his team in the game. I’ll take my chances with his consistency vs. the volatility of Musgrove.

More MLB Picks for Sunday, April 21

Braves ML vs. Rangers (-154)

The Braves are the best team in baseball at the moment, and I’m interested in backing them any time I can do so at a reasonable price. -154 at home vs. the Rangers definitely qualifies. They’ll have an unproven starter on the bump in Darius Vines, but Vines was impressive in his first start of the year. Michael Lorenzen will start for the Rangers, and he had a 7.62 xERA in his only outing. That could spell trouble vs. an elite Braves’ offense.

Royals F5 ML vs. Orioles (-135)

The Royals will have a sizable advantage on the mound on Sunday, with Seth Lugo taking on Cole Irvin. Lugo owns a sparkling 1.05 ERA through his first four starts, and his 3.01 FIP is also excellent. Irvin has been hit hard for the Orioles, so I like Kansas City’s chances of jumping out to an early lead.

Marlins ML at Cubs (+106)

The Marlins actually managed to win a game on Saturday, something that has alluded them for most of the year. I think they can do it again on Sunday. They’re taking on Kyle Hendricks, who is a clear fade target at the moment. He owns an appalling 12.71 ERA, and his advanced stats aren’t much better. It’s hard to pass up the opportunity to fade Hendricks at better than even money, even with the lowly Marlins.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 3-2 (+1.07 units)
Season: 45-39-3 (+0.09 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.

MLB Bets Today - Picks for Sunday, April 21