MLB Bets Today - Picks For Thursday, May 9th

After a robust Wednesday slate, Thursday’s action is on the lighter side. There are only seven games to choose from, but the good news is that they are spaced out throughout the day. Two contests start at 1:10 p.m. ET, followed by two mid-afternoon contests and three night games.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Thursday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Thursday, May 9

Minnesota Twins-Seattle Mariners Under 6.5 runs (+110; Caesars)

The total on this contest continues to plummet, dropping as low as 6.5 runs on Caesars. You can still find some juiced 7.0s, but I’d rather aim for the +110 payout on the lower figure. The difference between those two wagers is really just one outcome – a loss on seven vs. a push on seven – and I don’t think that’s worth 30 cents of juice.

Both of these teams will have outstanding starters on the bump on Thursday. The Twins will turn to Pablo Lopez, who has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the past few seasons. His traditional results this season haven’t been great – he owns a 4.30 ERA – but his peripherals suggest he’s as good as ever. His xERA sits at 2.73, while he’s striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings.

Logan Gilbert will get the ball for Seattle, and he owns a 1.73 ERA through his first seven starts. His advanced metrics aren’t quite as good as Lopez’s, but I still wouldn’t expect a ton of regression moving forward (3.13 xERA, 3.24 FIP).

Overall, it’s hard to ask for a much better starting pitcher matchup. Runs should be at a premium.

Cincinnati Reds F5 ML vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-135; DraftKings)

Hunter Greene will be on the mound for the Reds, and he has been a pitch-modeling darling this season. His Stuff+ checks in at 133, which is the second-best mark among qualified starters. Only rookie sensation Jared Jones has been better (136), and the gap between those two and the rest of the field is wide.

Greene possesses four above-average pitches, headlined by one of the best fastballs in all of baseball. He routinely touches triple-digits, so facing him is a nightmare for opposing batters.

Greene has allowed one run or fewer in three of his past four outings, dropping his ERA to 3.12 for the year. That said, he still has some room for improvement. His xERA is merely 2.43, so he’s been one of the best starters in baseball.

The Reds will have a clear advantage on the mound on Thursday, so targeting them in the first five innings has merit.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, May 9

Guardians ML at White Sox (-148)

Any time you can fade the worst team in baseball for just -148, it’s probably worth considering. The White Sox have just nine wins in 37 games this season, while the Guardians are 24-13. Starter Ben Lively has also been excellent this season (2.08 ERA, 3.67 xERA), so it’s not like they’ll be at a pitching disadvantage vs. Erick Fedde (3.46 ERA, 3.67 xERA). Sometimes, it’s ok to keep things simple.

Astros-Yankees Under 8.5 runs (-115)

The Astros continue to let me down, particularly on the offensive end. With that in mind, let’s target an under on Thursday. Both of these squads will have quality starters on the bump, with Ronel Blanco and Marcus Stroman both excelling at keeping runs off the scoreboard this season. The under has received some professional action in this matchup, and it’s down to 8.0 at some locations.

Reid Detmers Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140)

Reid Detmers is a solid strikeout pitcher, he has a really tough matchup Thursday vs. the Royals. They have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate vs. southpaws this season, and Detmers has gone under this figure in three of his past four outings.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.775 units)
Season: 76-73-5 (-5.59 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

MLB Bets Today - Picks For Thursday, May 9th