MLB Home Run Derby Odds & Picks: Will Pete Alonso Do It Again?

What, you thought just because there are no games on Monday you had the day off? Not a chance. The grind never stops at Fantasy Life. If there are things to bet on in the world of sports, you best believe we’re betting on it.

That includes the MLB Home Run Derby. For my money, it’s the best of all the different All-Star festivities across the professional sports leagues.

After all, who doesn’t want to see some of the best hitters in baseball trying to hit the ball as far as humanly possible?

This year’s field is a little lighter than in years past, but we still have some bonafide sluggers and rising stars. Here’s a list of the competitors, along with their best odds:

MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Pete Alonso (+340; DraftKings)
Marcel Ozuna (+500; Caesars)
Gunnar Henderson (+500; DraftKings)
Adolis Garcia (+500; FanDuel)
Bobby Witt Jr. (+550; Caesars)
Teoscar Hernandez (+1100; FanDuel)
Jose Ramirez (+1400; BetMGM)
Alec Bohm (+1600; BetMGM)

There are multiple different ways to play this event. You can obviously bet on the winner, but there are also head-to-head props, distance props, and total homer props.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite picks for the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby.

Top Picks for the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby

Winner: Pete Alonso (+340; DraftKings)

I’m eating the chalk here. Alonso has won this event twice, so he’ll be looking to make a little history. With another victory, he’d join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only player to win the event three separate times.

Alonso isn’t having a great season, but his HR power is prodigious. He’s finished with at least 37 homers in each full professional season, and he’s had at least 40 in all but one. When he squares up the baseball, very few generate as much power. He’s ranked in the top 3% in max exit velocity in each year of his career, and he’s been in the top percentile on three separate occasions.

That said, what sets Alonso apart from his competition is his pitcher. Dave Jauss has a real job, but his true calling is to throw batting practice in Home Run Derbies. Look at this man’s heat map from the 2021 Derby:

Dave Jauss is no longer the Mets bench coach but it has been confirmed that he will pitch to Pete Alonso in the Home Run Derby again pic.twitter.com/k0f89EMU1V
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 12, 2022

Even though Jauss is no longer in the Mets’ organization, he will still throw to Alonso in 2024. That’s been a huge advantage in the past, and it’ll be even larger this year.

The HR Derby will feature a new rule this season, capping each batter at a maximum of 40 pitches in the first two rounds. No longer will guys just be able to hack for a full three minutes; if you run out of pitches before the end of the clock, your round is officially over.

That makes getting quality pitches more important than ever. I trust Jauss to do that more than any other Derby pitcher. They’ve also eliminated the first-round head-to-head matchups, so Alonso just has to finish in the top half of the field to advance. That removes some of the additional variance for the favorites.

Under 270.5 Homers (-113; FanDuel)

Judging from previous years, this number is too low. There were 291 homers hit in 2022 and 309 homers in 2021, and the competitors combined for a ridiculous 341 homers last year. That was easily a new record.

However, the new format should result in fewer homers overall.

The competitors are going to get fewer swings in the first two rounds, and they’re going to get far fewer swings in the finals. The days of seeing guys go for 25+ homers in a round – which happened six times last year – are likely in the past.

Betting the under on a Derby prop might be the least fun bet ever, but I firmly believe it’s the correct side. It might be more fun to root for homers, but I’d rather try to win some cash.

More Home Run Derby Bets

Winner: Alec Bohm (+1600)

Bohm is the long shot here, and it makes perfect sense. He has just 11 homers, which is easily the worst mark in the field. The other seven competitors all have at least 16, with Henderson leading the way at 27.

However, Bohm can hit for power, even if it hasn’t done it much in-game. He has 92 “blasts” this season, which occur when a batter has a squared-up baseball and hits a minimum requirement in terms of swing speed. That’s the third-best mark in the field, with only Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt having more.

Bohm squares up the baseball at a high frequency, too; he just doesn’t typically get the launch angle needed for homers. If Bohm channels his power into launching the ball instead of hitting line drives, he has the potential to win this event. I like his chances more than the 5.88% implied probability from the betting market.

Bobby Witt Jr. H2H First Round over Gunnar Henderson (-115)

Witt is another player I’m bullish on in this event. You could certainly consider him to win at +550, but my favorite way to play him is against Henderson in the first round.

Both players have impressive Statcast profiles, but Henderson is the only true left-handed hitter in the event. Globe Life Ballpark has a 120 Park Factor for right-handed hitters when it comes to homers, making it the second-friendliest venue in baseball.

That figure drops to 110 for lefties, and while that’s not a huge discrepancy, it could play a factor. It’s enough to push me off of Henderson and onto some of the righties in the first round, like Witt, Adolis Garcia (+105), and Bohm (+195).

Bobby Witt Jr. Highest Record Exit Velocity (+350)

This is another way to consider playing Witt. Out of the field’s eight competitors, Witt has the top max exit velocity. Why can’t he do it during the competition? This field lacks a true exit velo god – someone like Giancarlo Stanton, Oneil Cruz, or Shohei Ohtani – so this field is wide open. Witt isn’t a prototypical slugger, but he’s proven he has as much raw power as anyone.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-1 w/ two pending (+0.07 units)
Season: 178-181-9 (-10.76 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.