MLB Picks Today - Top Picks for Tuesday, April 2
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite MLB picks today, including the Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, and more.
The MLB is offering up a 15-game slate for Tuesday, but it seems unlikely that all 30 teams will be in action.
There’s some nasty weather in the forecast for the East Coast, so we’re probably looking at some rainouts. The game between the Mets and Tigers appears destined for a PPD, while the games in Philadelphia and Boston are also in jeopardy.
Still, that leaves plenty of baseball for us to focus on elsewhere. Let’s dive into a few of my MLB best bets for Tuesday’s slate:
MLB Picks Today – Tuesday, April 2
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-115) vs. New York Yankees (BetMGM)
The Yankees have been the most impressive team in baseball to start the year. They picked up a four-game sweep over the Astros in Houston, and they started their series vs. the Diamondbacks with a win on Monday.
That said, they’re going to have their hands full on Tuesday. They’re taking on Zac Gallen, who finished third in the NL Cy Young voting last year. He was particularly good at home, pitching to a 2.47 ERA and 2.32 FIP across 102 innings in Arizona. Gallen was mediocre in his first start of 2024, but he still managed to limit the Rockies to one run across five innings. Overall, it’s a spot where the Yankees’ offense could struggle.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will hand the ball to Nestor Cortes, who is still looking to recapture the magic from his 2021 breakout. He regressed to a 4.97 ERA in 2023, and he posted a 7.20 ERA in his first start of 2024.
The Diamondbacks have a significant advantage on the bump, so I’m fine with Arizona at anything better than -120.
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Los Angeles Angels-Miami Marlins Over 8.5 runs (-110; FanDuel)
I successfully played the over in this contest on Monday, and I’m going back to the well on Tuesday. The Marlins are now 5-0 to the over this season, and their bullpen has been a big reason why. They’ve gotten virtually no length from their starters, so most of their top relievers have been overworked early in the year.
They’ll look to get a little help from Jesus Luzardo on Tuesday, but Luzardo isn’t known as an innings-eater. He lasted just five innings on Opening Day, and a similar output could be in the cards vs. the Angels.
The Marlins should also be able to score some runs vs. Tyler Anderson, who had just a 5.43 ERA in 2023.
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More MLB Picks for Tuesday, April 2
Brewers (-112) vs. Twins – The Brewers have a fully rested bullpen after an off day, which means starter Jakob Junis should only have to go around five innings. The Twins are also without their best hitter (Royce Lewis) and their top reliever (Jhoan Duran), so the Brewers have the edge from a health perspective.
Blue Jays-Astros Under 8.5 runs (-115) – The Yankees roughed up Framber Valdez in his first outing, but he’s still been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past four years. Jose Berrios turned things around in 2023 and carried that momentum into his first start, limiting a good Rays’ offense to two runs over six innings. Scoring should be at a premium.
Yu Darvish Under 6.5 strikeouts (-112) – Darvish is a good strikeout arm, but he’s been limited to less than 80 pitches in his first two starts. The Cardinals also ranked 24th in strikeout rate vs. right-handers last year, so this is far from an ideal matchup.