Matt LaMarca breaks down the Monday Night Football Best Bets for Week 15.

NFL Week 15 brings another Monday Night Football doubleheader. Neither game stands out as a banger, but in my world, two football games are always better than one.

The action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET with an NFC North showdown. The Chicago Bears will take on the Minnesota Vikings, with the Vikings listed as a 7-point home favorite. With the Lions dropping a game Sunday vs. the Bills, the Vikings can move into a tie for first place with a win over Chicago. The Lions and Vikings still have a head-to-head matchup left on the schedule, and that game could be for the division crown and top spot in the conference.

In the second contest, the Atlanta Falcons will head to Sin City to take on the Raiders. The Falcons are listed as 6-point road favorites, and they desperately need a win to keep pace with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is currently 1.5 games above the Falcons in the standings, but Atlanta does own the head-to-head tiebreaker. If they can beat the Raiders, their divisional chances are still very live.

Let’s dive into my favorite bets for this Monday Night Football doubleheader.

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7.0)—44.0 total

The Vikings are potentially a bit overvalued at the moment. They’re currently 11-2, but they have the point differential of a nine-win team. They’re also merely 13th in yardage differential, so they’ve been a bit fortunate.

They’ve also breezed through a relatively easy schedule, especially of late. They’re currently riding a six-game winning streak, but five of those wins have come against teams with a sub-.500 record. The lone exception was a win over the 7-7 Cardinals, and the Vikings ultimately prevailed by just a point.

The Vikings did pick up a win over the Bears in Chicago during that stretch, but they needed overtime to get past them. The Bears managed to erase a 10-point deficit in the final minute thanks to a Keenan Allen touchdown and a Cairo Santos field goal following an onside kick recovery.

The Vikings are undoubtedly the better team … but I’m not sure they deserve to be favored by quite this much.

Still, I’m not going to back the Bears, either. Instead, let’s look toward the under. These have been two under teams this season, with both posting 8-5 marks. The Vikings defense should be able to give the Bears trouble, while Chicago’s secondary can slow down Minnesota’s potent receiver duo. This is also the second meeting between two divisional opponents in a relatively short timeframe, so these squads should be familiar with what the other wants to do offensively.

The Pick: Under 44.0 (-110; DraftKings)

Atlanta Falcons (-6.0) at Las Vegas Raiders—44.5 total

I feel a bit stronger about the side in this matchup. The Raiders are bad, but I’m not sure any NFL team is bad enough to warrant being six-point home underdogs vs. the Falcons.

Kirk Cousins has been an absolute mess of late. In his past four games, he’s tallied zero touchdown passes compared to 8 interceptions. It’s gotten to the point where the team has to be seriously thinking about benching him in favor of Michael Penix Jr.

The Raiders will be going with Desmond Ridder in this contest, and Matthew Freedman actually sees that as a slight upgrade over Aidan O’Connell. He hasn’t been great at covering the spread for his career, but he is a perfect 1-0 ATS as a home underdog for whatever that’s worth.

We have a much larger sample size with Cousins, and he is notorious for underperforming in prime-time contests. He’s just 15-19 ATS for his career when playing a night game, though he has been better in that split this season.

Ultimately, the Falcons were listed as just three-point favorites on the lookahead line. They were smoked in their last outing, so why is this number all the way up to six? Maxx Crosby will miss this contest—which is worth a point or two—but this feels more like an overreaction to Ridder getting the start. Even if he isn’t an upgrade over O’Connell, he can’t be much of a downgrade. Six points just feels like too many. 

The Pick: Raiders +6.0 (-110; DraftKings)

Player Props for Monday Night Football

D’Andre Swift Under 14.5 carries (-125; BetMGM)

There are multiple ways where Swift could go under his carry prop. For starters, he’s already done so in four straight games. The Bears have gone much more pass-heavy since changing around their offensive coaching staff, and that’s been pretty effective. They’ve been one of the worst offensive teams all season in terms of yards per game, but they had been significantly better before last week’s contest. There’s also a chance that this game turns into a blowout, which would also impact Swift’s touches.

Sincere McCormick Over 57.5 rushing yards (-115; DraftKings)

The Raiders backfield is a bit jumbled at the moment, with Alexander Mattison set to return following a three-game absence. However, McCormick has been very impressive in his limited run this season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry on 32 attempts. It makes way more sense for the team to see if he can be their future running back than to start giving carries to Mattison. He’s had at least 64 rushing yards in both starts, and I like his chances of going 3-for-3.

Desmond Ridder Over 14.5 rushing yards (-110; DraftKings)

This is kind of a vibes play. Ridder has averaged right around 14.5 rushing yards per game in his 17 starts, but this is a #RevengeGame. Ridder has to pull out all the stops, right? The Falcons have also allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, so it’s a pretty good matchup as well.