Monday Night Football Best Bets: Eagles vs. Falcons
Matt LaMarca delivers best bets and player props for the Week 2 Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons.
After a wild day of football on Sunday, NFL Week 2 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles will have home-field advantage for this contest and a rest edge after last playing on Friday, and they’re listed as 5.5-point favorites across the industry. The total in this contest sits at 45.5 points after opening at 48.0.
These two teams got off to vastly different starts this season. The Eagles were very impressive in their win over the Packers, particularly on offense. They racked up the third-most points and yards in Week 1, while their defense did just enough to secure a win.
Conversely, things couldn’t have gone much worse for the Falcons. Kirk Cousins looked dreadful in his first start for the franchise, and they lost to a Steelers team that didn’t even score a touchdown.
Can Atlanta bounce back in Week 2, or will the Eagles roll in Philly? Let’s dive in.
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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)—45.5 total
If Cousins is going to continue to play as poorly as he did in Week 1, the Falcons are going to struggle to live up to their lofty preseason expectations. Even if they do have some really exciting young pieces, none of that matters if your quarterback can’t get them the ball.
Still, it’s fair to give Cousins a little bit of slack for his Week 1 performance. The Steelers have an elite pass rush, with T.J. Watt standing out as one of the biggest game wreckers in all of football. Cousins was pressured on 11 of his 28 dropbacks, and while the Eagles aren’t a bad pass-rushing team, he should have a bit more time to operate this week.
It was also Cousins’ first game action in nearly a year after suffering a season-ending Achilles injury in 2023. It’s possible that Cousins is still not fully recovered, but it’s also possible he was just shaking off some rust.
The Eagles are an exploitable matchup for Cousins to bounce back in. They were a disaster down the stretch defensively in 2023, ranking 29th in EPA per play defensively from Week 10 on. They didn’t look vastly improved in their first game of 2024, ranking 25th in defensive EPA vs. the Packers.
Ultimately, this feels like a decent spot to buy low on a talented Falcons squad. They were merely 4-point underdogs when this spread was first released, so we’re getting a smidge of line value. Teams that failed to win and cover in Week 1 have also posted an above-.500 record in Week 2 against teams that are 1-0 straight up and ATS.
The Pick: Falcons +5.5 (-105; Caesars)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Jahan Dotson Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110; FanDuel)
I’m keeping this one pretty simple. The Eagles are going to be without A.J. Brown, who racked up a 33% target share and 49% of the team’s air yards in Week 1. Someone else is going to have to step up to fill the void, and Dotson is the most logical candidate. He ran a route on 62% of the team’s dropbacks in Week 1, but he managed just one target. He should see a spike in both routes and targets vs. the Falcons, so this number seems too low. Dwain McFarland currently has Dotson projected for more than 30 yards in this matchup.
Saquon Barkley Under 17.5 carries (+100; DraftKings)
Selling Barkley is scary after last week’s monster performance—132 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns—but the best way to attack this Falcons defense is through the air. They were No. 1 in rushing EPA defensively in 2023, and they were 10th in that department in Week 1. Even without Brown, the Eagles might throw the ball a bit more than anticipated in this matchup.
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+105; FanDuel)
Hurts may not have Jason Kelce at center anymore, but the “tush push” is still alive and well in Philly. He had 13 carries in Week 1, including one from inside the 5-yard line. He scored a touchdown in 11 of 17 regular-season games last year, so getting an anytime touchdown line at +105 is pretty appealing. Barkley will steal a bit more work around the goal line than D’Andre Swift did last season, but I still expect Hurts to be the Eagles’ primary finisher in the paint.
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