Monday Night Football Best Bets Week 17: Jahmyr Gibbs and Lions Roar vs 49ers
Matt LaMarca delivers Monday Night Football Best Bets for Week 17 featuring Lions-49ers, in a game with stars Amon-Ra St. Brown, George Kittle, and more.
Matt LaMarca delivers the Monday Night Football Best Bets for Week 17 featuring Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers.
When the 2024-25 NFL schedule was first released, the Week 17 matchup between the Lions and 49ers looked like a game-of-the-year candidate. They put together an absolute classic in the NFC Championship game last year, and they were both expected to contend for the top spot in the conference once again this season.
Unfortunately, things haven’t gone exactly to plan. The 49ers have been decimated by injuries this season, and they’ve already been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Lions have been as good as advertised … but this game means very little to them. Win or lose, they’re still going to need to beat the Vikings in Week 18 to secure the NFC North crown. The winner of that game will secure the No. 1 seed and coveted first-round bye, while the loser will drop all the way to No. 5.
That leaves us with a Monday Night Football showdown between two teams with little to play for. It’s a tough game to handicap, with the Lions listed as 3.5-point favorites and the total sitting at 50.0.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Lions-49ers.
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Detroit Lions (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers—50.0 total
Before we get into the game, I do think it’s important to touch on the situation for Detroit. As stated previously, this game will have virtually zero impact on the Lions’ postseason seeding. The only way that this game matters is if they tie with the Vikings. In that scenario, a win vs. the 49ers gives Detroit the No. 1 seed, while a loss actually moves the Eagles to the top spot. Still, it’s a very unlikely scenario and one that I don’t think the team is actually preparing for.
With that in mind, the question becomes should Dan Campbell get his starters some rest? I think it’s a reasonable option. The team has dealt with a myriad of injuries of late, especially on the defensive side of the ball. With next week’s game being on short rest, it’s not the worst idea to potentially get some of their players out of the game early. Even if that doesn’t happen, maybe they spread the snaps out a bit more evenly to their running backs and receivers.
I’m not sure if that’s in Campbell’s DNA, but it’s something that I’m sure the team is thinking about.
Speaking of the defense, that has become a major concern for Detroit. They were vastly improved on that side of the ball to start the year, but they’re down to 30th in EPA per play defensively since Week 13. Part of that stems from their game vs. the Bills, but they’ve also had subpar showings against the Packers and Bears (twice). With eight defensive lineman and a host of players in their secondary currently on IR, it’s not surprising that they’ve had some dropoff on that side of the ball.
Add it all up, and it’s enough to push me toward the 49ers in this spot. San Francisco has had a disastrous season, but it is still capable of doing some things offensively. Getting back Isaac Guerendo this week should help the run game, and they still have George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings in the pass game.
Additionally, if Jared Goff has a weakness, it’s playing on the road. He’s still been pretty good at covering the spread in those contests—especially as a member of the Lions—but his numbers have taken a pretty significant hit away from home.
This line has also stayed pretty stagnant at 3.5 all week, despite the public continuing to pound the Lions. They’ve received 85% of the spread bets in this matchup, but the 49ers have received more of the high-dollar wagers. It’s the type of discrepancy that tells me that the sharps are on San Francisco, so I’m willing to hop on board at +3.5.
The Pick: 49ers +3.5 (-108; DraftKings)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown (-235; DraftKings)
Using our Prop Finder tool, you can see a pretty massive discrepancy in Gibbs’ odds to find the paint on Monday night. He’s all the way up at -450 on BetMGM, which makes his -235 on DraftKings a massive discount in comparison. With David Montgomery out of the picture, Gibbs should handle most of the goal-line opportunities for the Lions in this matchup. The two Detroit runners have combined for 27 touchdowns this season, and at least one of them has scored in all but one game. I’m not sure any player is more likely to find the end zone on a weekly basis than Gibbs at the moment, so I’m willing to lay some juice vs. the 49ers.
George Kittle Under 66.5 receiving yards (-110; FanDuel)
The Lions have yet to allow a single tight end to eclipse 66.5 receiving yards this season. They’re the No. 1 defense in football in terms of yards allowed to the position, so this is going to be an uphill battle for Kittle. Kittle is one of the most talented tight ends in the league, but his target share still sits at just 22% for this season. That’s not an elite figure, so I think it’s a perfect sell-high opportunity.
Jauan Jennings 100+ receiving yards (+370; FanDuel)
If I’m fading Kittle, it only makes sense to target one of the 49ers’ receivers instead. Jennings is coming off a subpar showing last week, but he’s been the 49ers’ clear top pass catcher since returning to the lineup in Week 10. He has a 28% target share over that time frame, and he should be able to find success against a depleted secondary.
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