Monday Night Football Best Bets Week 7: Doubleheader Action
Matt LaMarca reveals his best bets for the Week 7 Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring Ravens-Buccaneers and Chargers-Cardinals.
Matt LaMarca delivers his best bets for the Monday Night football doubleheader featuring Ravens-Buccaneers and Chargers-Cardinals.
The NFL is giving us another Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 7. The two games will run concurrently, with the Buccaneers hosting the Ravens at 8:15 p.m. ET and the Cardinals hosting the Chargers at 9 p.m. ET. The second game will only be televised on ESPN+, while the first will be broadcast like a traditional Monday Night Football contest.
Both of these games are expected to be competitive. The Ravens are favored by 3.5 points against Tampa Bay, while the Chargers are 1.5-point road favorites vs. the Cardinals.
The Ravens started the year at 0-2, but have completely righted the ship, rattling off four straight wins. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are coming off an absolute demolition of the Saints last week. They racked up nearly 600 yards of total offense and more than 50 points. They’re also sitting at 4-2.
In the other contest, the Chargers have started 3-2 under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, and they picked up a win over the Broncos in Week 6. The Cardinals are just 2-4, but they already have an upset win over the 49ers under their belts and have historically been a strong offensive team with a healthy Kyler Murray.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know from a betting perspective for this Monday Night Football doubleheader.
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Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers—50.0 total
The Buccaneers have gotten some sharp action in this spot, which has driven this number down a bit since opening. The line was released at Ravens -4.5 last Sunday, but the sharps gobbled that up pretty quickly.
The Buccaneers’ offense is legit, ranking fifth in EPA per play through the first five weeks. There were some questions about whether or not Baker Mayfield could duplicate his success from last season, but he’s been even better in his second year with the Bucs. He’s ninth among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite, and he’s tied for the league lead in touchdown passes.
He should be able to keep the points coming vs. the Ravens. Baltimore has historically been an elite defensive team, but it hasn’t been able to reach those heights in 2024. The Ravens are all the way down to 27th in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve been absolutely shredded through the air: no team in football has allowed more passing yards per game.
What Baltimore lacks on defense, it more than makes up for it on offense. Lamar Jackson won the second MVP award of his career last season, but you could argue that he’s having his best season as a passer. He’s averaging a career-best 9.31 adjusted yards per attempt, racking up 10 touchdown passes with just 2 interceptions through his first six games. The Ravens also have arguably the best rushing attack in football, so this offense is an absolute wagon.
I personally have the Ravens at No. 1 in power ratings, so I don’t want to step in front of this buzzsaw at the moment. They won games by healthy margins for most of last season, so I see no reason why they can’t do it again vs. the Buccaneers.
That said, I think the best way to play this game is with the over. Both of these teams have big offenses and questionable defenses, and I don’t like to bet against the sharps if I can avoid it.
The Pick: Over 49.5 (-115; FanDuel)
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals—44.0 total
The Chargers are my pick for the most boring team in the league, but it’s hard to argue their results at the moment. Jim Harbaugh has picked up right where he left off as an NFL head coach. He’s gone 3-1-1 ATS so far this season, moving him to 41-25-3 for his career.
The Chargers are winning games this season with their defense. They’re No. 3 in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve allowed the fewest points per game. It’s a far cry from the team that finished in the bottom 9 in both points and yards allowed last season.
However, it’s fair to note that the Chargers have had a cupcake schedule to start the year. Their wins have come against the Raiders, Panthers, and Broncos. The two “tough” games on their schedule were against the Chiefs and Steelers, and they lost both of those by at least a touchdown. There’s a chance the Chargers are good, but it still remains to be seen.
The Cardinals are coming off a poor showing last week, but this is a solid spot to buy low on them. Murray has historically fared well as an underdog for his career, going 27-16-2 ATS. They’ve been the more efficient offensive team to start the season, and offensive production is a lot stickier than defensive.
If you’re going to take the Cardinals, I prefer grabbing the moneyline as opposed to the +1.5 points. We can save a decent bit on the vig, and we only have to sacrifice one result (Chargers win by exactly one point).
The Pick: Cardinals ML (+100; BetMGM)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Justice Hill Under 2.5 receptions (-114; FanDuel)
Hill has two games with 6 receptions this season, but those stand out as significant outliers. He’s had 2 targets or fewer in his other four contests, so this number feels high. He still has Derrick Henry in front of him on the depth chart, so Hill doesn’t figure to be a huge part of the game plan most weeks. The under on 2.5 receptions is as high as -145 elsewhere, so getting it at -114 on FanDuel is a solid value.
Baker Mayfield Over 34.5 passing attempts (-125; FanDuel)
The Ravens are a pretty significant pass funnel on defense. They’re still well above average against the run. They’re fourth in rush defense EPA, and they’re allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. That’s easily the top mark in football. Opposing QBs have averaged 37 pass attempts against them so far this season, and with the way Mayfield is playing, the Bucs should have no issues allowing him to air it out.
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+170; DraftKings)
Even though I’m picking the Cardinals, I can’t help but take a shot on at least two touchdown passes for Herbert. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in just one game this season, but he remains a high-end talent at the position. The Cardinals’ defense is definitely exploitable, ranking just 30th in EPA vs. the pass, and they’ve allowed an average of 1.7 passing touchdowns per game.
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