NBA Best Bets and Picks For Nov 19: Celtics Primed To End Cavs' Win Streak

The Emirates Cup 2024 returns tonight and Matt LaMarca has his best NBA bets and picks to get you started:

We’ve got another night of NBA Cup action in store for Tuesday. There are six games to choose from, with the action getting underway at 7 p.m. ET.

The marquee matchup on this slate features the Cleveland Cavaliers traveling to Boston to take on the defending champs. Can the Celtics hand the Cavs their first blemish of the season, or will the champs knock them back to reality?

Elsewhere, the Lakers will be looking to win their sixth-straight game, while the Nuggets will battle the Grizzlies in a game with potential playoff implications down the stretch. Overall, it should be a great night of NBA action.

Tonight's NBA Best Bets and Picks

Before we dive into my NBA best bets for Tuesday's six-game slate, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:

NBA Player Projections - while the focus here is betting, our NBA DFS projections include minutes projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.

We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.

Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.

NBA Best Bets For November 19

Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers Pick

Pick: Celtics -5.5 (-110)
Bet to: Celtics -6.5 (-110)

Is it possible that the Cavaliers are the best team in basketball? They certainly look the part at the moment. They’ve won each of their first 15 games, tying them for the second-best start in NBA history. Only the 2015-16 Warriors have had a longer win streak to begin a season, and that team finished with 73 wins.

The Cavaliers are doing it a bit differently than in years past. They’ve historically been built around an elite defense, while the offense did just enough to win games. They were merely 16th in offensive efficiency last season, and they had a Net Rating of just +2.5.

This year, the Cavs have been the best offensive team in basketball. They did change coaches this offseason, with Kenny Atkinson replacing J.B. Bickerstaff, but the rest of the pieces are nearly identical. Is it possible that a change in philosophy can make that big of a difference?

The more likely reason is that this team is simply riding a hot shooting streak. They’ve knocked down 41.9% of their 3-point attempts this season, which is the best mark in the league by a comfortable margin. The gap between the Cavs and the Warriors—who are second in team 3-point percentage—is greater than the gap between the Warriors and the 13th-ranked Suns. They’re not going to shoot that well forever, and when the regression inevitably hits, they’re going to be overvalued in the betting market.

With that in mind, I’ll take my chances with the Celtics at -5.5. We don’t get a ton of opportunities to back the Cs as home favorites this small, so I’m not going to pass it up.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets For November 19

Isaac Okoro Under 6.5 Points (-109; Caesars)

Play To: Under 5.5 (-110)

Okoro is a starter for the Cavs, but he’s a starter in name only. He’s averaged just 18.8 minutes over his past five contests, and he routinely plays less than guys like Caris LeVert, Ty Jerome, and Dean Wade off the bench. He’s scored six points or fewer in four of those contests, and he’s averaged just 5.0 points per game over that stretch.

John Collins Over 16.5 points (-125; FanDuel)

Play To: Over 18.5 (-110)

Collins continues to look undervalued in the scoring market. He’s seen an uptick in minutes recently with Walker Kessler and Taylor Hendricks out of the lineup, and he’s started each of the past four games. He’s averaged more than 21 points per game in those contests, and he’s second on the team in usage for the year.

Cam Reddish Under 5.5 Points (-105; BetMGM)

Play To: Under 5.5 (-125)

The case for Reddish looks very similar to Okoro: he may be a member of the starting lineup, but there’s no guarantee he will play more than 20 minutes. He’s also an extremely low-usage player, attempting three shots or fewer in all but two of his seven outings this season.

Recapping My NBA Bets for November 19

To recap my NBA card for Tuesday, see below:

Celtics -5.5 vs. Cavaliers (-110; MGM) - Risk 1.1u
Isaac Okoro Under 6.5 Points (-109; Caesars) - Risk 1.09u
John Collins Over 16.5 Points (-125; FanDuel) - Risk 1.25u
Cam Reddish Under 5.5 Points (-105; MGM) - Risk 1.05u

Total: Risk 4.44 units to win 4.0.