NBA Best Bets for February 14th. Spread Bets, Props, and more to bet.
Matt LaMarca outlines his favorite NBA bets for Wednesday's 13-game slate, including props, spread bets, and more.
There’s just two more slates before the NBA All-Star break, and Wednesday’s slate is packed to the gills. There are 13 games to choose from, so nearly every team in the league will be in action.
That gives us lots of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite options for Wednesday’s massive slate:
Orlando Magic (-3.5) vs. New York Knicks (-110; Caesars)
- Play To: -3.5 (-115)
The Magic are on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing to the Thunder on Tuesday, but they still have a pretty massive edge in this matchup from a health perspective. Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitch Robinson will all remain out of the lineup, while Isaiah Hartenstein and Donte DiVincenzo are questionable.
The Knicks were initially able to survive some of their injuries, but they’ve dropped four of their past five games. Their only win over that stretch was against the Grizzlies, who were in even worse injury shape.
DiVincenzo has done some heavy lifting for this squad of late, averaging 40.4 minutes and 26.5 points over his past eight games. If he’s forced to sit out on Wednesday, it’s going to leave a massive void in their rotation.
Meanwhile, the Magic are basically at full strength at the moment. Markelle Fultz could rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, but that’s really their only concern.
Orlando has come back to reality after an elite start to the year, but they should be able to take care of business in this spot.
You can tail the Magic at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up below:
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Washington Wizards (+12.0) at New Orleans Pelicans (-102; DraftKings)
- Play To: Wizards +12.0 (-110)
The Pelicans are in the midst of one of their best stretches this season, winning six of their past seven games. That said, they haven’t exactly run the toughest gauntlet. Their only quality win in that span was against the Clippers, with the others coming against the Rockets, Spurs, Raptors, Blazers, and Grizzlies.
The Wizards are not a huge step up in competition, but they’ve played tough recently. Their last four losses were all by eight points or less, and they came against the Cavaliers, Celtics, 76ers, and Mavericks.
If they can hang with those squads, I see no reason why they can’t do it again on Wednesday. The fact that Zion Williamson is questionable is an added bonus.
The Pelicans have fared pretty well with Zion off the floor this season, but surviving a full game without him is different from surviving a few minutes on the bench. We’ve seen that play out in Philadelphia of late, with the 76ers struggling massively without Joel Embiid.
Williamson is not Embiid, but he’s the Pelicans’ best player and has an impact on both ends of the floor. If he’s ruled out, expect this number to creep toward the single digits.
You can tail the Wizards on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat bets when you sign up below!
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Immanuel Quickley Under 5.5 assists (+114; FanDuel)
- Play To: Under 5.5 (-115)
- Paydirt Under Simulation: 74.18%
Quickley is never going to be confused with Chris Paul on a basketball court. He’s much more of a score-first point guard, evidenced by his career average of just 3.2 assists per game.
Quickley has seen a boost in responsibilities since being traded to the Raptors, averaging just shy of 32 minutes per game. That said, he’s still not racking up a ton of assists. He’s been under 5.5 dimes in four straight games, and he’s averaged just 3.5 assists per game over that stretch.
Feb 9, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley (5) drives to the net against the Houston Rockets during the first half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Raptors are in a position to put up some points Wednesday vs. the Pacers. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, and they’re merely 26th in defensive efficiency. However, they have shown a bit more resolve on that end of the floor of late, improving to 17th in defensive efficiency over their past five games.
The Paydirt simulations are extremely bullish on Quickley going under 5.5 dimes in this matchup. His median outcome is just 4.71 assists, and he was under 5.5 in nearly 75% of the simulations. Getting this prop at +114 is a steal, and I’d play the under all the way up to -115.
Jalen Johnson Over 3.5 assists (+120; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 3.5 (+100)
- Paydirt Over Simulation: 59.12%
I love being able to get 50/50 props at better than even money, and Johnson’s assist prop is slightly better than that on Wednesday. The PaydirtDFS player prop simulator has Johnson eclipsing 3.5 assists more than 59% of the time, while the +120 odds translate to an implied probability of 45.45%.
Johnson has averaged 4.3 dimes over his past 10 games, and he’s had at least four assists in six of them. His matchup vs. the Hornets is also a good one, with Charlotte ranking dead last in defensive efficiency.
You can also find this prop at 2.5 at some locations, with the over priced at approximately -165. I think both numbers provide value, but I’d rather shoot for the slightly riskier prop with better odds.
Marvin Bagley III Over 11.5 points (-120; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 13.5 (+100)
- Paydirt Over Simulation: 80.94%
Bagley will always have the unfortunate designation of being the player drafted over Luka Doncic. Doncic has blossomed into a perennial MVP candidate, while Bagley is struggling just to stay in the league. He’s a throwback player who is not suited for the “pace-and-space” style of play in the 2020s.
While Bagley has his deficiencies on the court, the one thing he can do well is score the basketball. He’s shot 51.5% from the field for his career, and he’s up to 58.5% in 2023-24.
He’s been getting more opportunities to play recently for the Wizards, who traded away Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline. He’s started each of their past two games, and he contributed 12 points in 28.1 minutes in his last outing.
If Bagley is going to continue to see that much playing time, he’s going to get buckets. He’s averaged 19.4 points per 36 minutes for his career, including 21.1 in 10 games with the Wizards. With Isaiah Livers currently on the sidelines, Bagley and Richaun Holmes are really the only two options for the Wizards at center.
The Paydirt sims absolutely love Bagley’s over on 11.5 points. They have him going over in nearly 81% of their simulations, with a mean outcome of 14.68. This prop is a slam dunk.
You can tail the trio of props on FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:
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