NBA Best Bets for February 26th. Spread Bets, Props, and more to bet.

Monday features a relatively small four-game NBA slate, and most of the top teams in basketball have the night off. That said, there are still some opportunities to look for betting value.

Let's break down the best bets for Monday’s slate…

Detroit Pistons (+11.5) at New York Knicks (-115; BetMGM)

Play To: Pistons +11.0

The Pistons are having a historically bad season. They’ve won just eight of their first 56 games, and things haven’t gone much better for them of late. They’re just 2-8 over their past 10 games, and they’re 23rd in Net Rating over that time frame.

Still, this team does at least have some talent. Cade Cunningham is averaging 22.2 points per game in his third NBA season, while Jaden Ivey has shown flashes. He’s averaging just 15.1 points per game for the year, but he’s increased that figure to 19.0 over his past nine outings.

The Pistons are catching the Knicks at a good time, who continue to deal with a bunch of injuries in their frontcourt. Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitch Robinson remain out with injuries, and the team has not been the same with all three players sidelined. They’re merely 19th in Net Rating over their past 10 games, and they’ve lost five of their past six contests.

The shorthanded Knicks should still have enough firepower to get past the Pistons, but this spread seems a bit too long. I’ll grab the points with Detroit.

Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings Under 225.5 points (-115; BetMGM)

Play To: Under 225.0 (-110)

Any time the Heat are involved, looking at the under is a decent idea. Miami has been a prototypical under team so far this season. They’re playing at the third-slowest pace in basketball, and they’re seventh in defensive efficiency. They’re also 22nd in offensive efficiency, so they check all the boxes that you’re looking for in an under squad. Unsurprisingly, the under has gone 35-21 in Heat games this season, making them the most profitable under team in basketball.

The Kings are not nearly as slow-paced as the Heat, but they’re not the same offensive machine that they were last season. They were first in the league in offensive efficiency in 2022-23, but they’ve dipped to just 13th this year. They’re also 11th in pace, so they’re not exactly an offensive juggernaut.

The Heat have gone under this figure in 10 straight games, including their last matchup vs. the Kings. The two squads combined for 221 points in Miami, and Miami’s roster was in significantly better shape for that contest. The team will be down Jimmy Butler on Monday due to a suspension, while Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier are both considered questionable.

Losing Butler is a big deal. They’ve averaged 7.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with Butler off the court this season, while their defense has been slightly better. Add it all up, and the under is the play in this matchup.

You can tail the under as well as the Pistons with the points at BetMGM, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:

Lamar Stevens Under 13.5 points + rebounds (-115; DraftKings)

Play To: Under 13.5 (-130)

It has been a disastrous season for the Grizzlies, who have dealt with injuries to virtually every key player on the roster. They’re currently playing without Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and Brandon Clarke, which has opened up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Stevens is one of those players. He’s put together some solid performances recently, averaging 11.3 points and 7.0 rebounds over his past four games.

However, Stevens played just 15.7 minutes in his last outing after averaging 25.1 minutes over his previous three. If he’s going to continue to see such limited playing time, it’s going to be tough for him to hit the over on 13.5 points + rebounds. He’s never even come close to hitting that average throughout his career, and it seems as though his opportunities in Memphis are drying up quickly. This is the perfect opportunity to sell high.

Nic Claxton Under 11.5 rebounds (-146; DraftKings)

Play To: Under 11.5 (-150)

The under on this prop is juiced up a bit, but it’s still offering significant value on DraftKings.

Claxton and the Nets draw a solid matchup for rebounding vs. the Grizzlies, who rank just 26th in team rebound rate for the year. Overall, they’ve allowed the third-most rebounds per game.

Feb 14, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Brooklyn Nets center Nic Claxton (33) reacts after a play against the Boston Celtics in the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Still, Claxton isn’t exactly a monster on the glass. He’s averaged just 10.1 rebounds per game this season, and his numbers have been trending downward. He’s had less than 12 rebounds in 10 of his past 11 games, including each of his past nine. He’s averaged just 27.2 minutes over his past six games, so he’s trending down in that department as well.

You can go in two different directions with this prop: Under 10.5 at close to even money or under 11.5 at a premium. I’d rather lay the extra juice. I think 10 and 11 rebounds are two of the most likely outcomes for Claxton in this spot, so getting the under on 11.5 gives us a win in both scenarios.

Donte DiVincenzo Under 3.5 assists (-130; DraftKings)

Play To: Under 3.5 (-140)

DiVincenzo has been asked to do a lot of heavy lifting for the shorthanded Knicks recently. He’s averaged 39.0 minutes per game over his past 10 contests, and he’s responded with 24.0 points per game. He’s been particularly busy from behind the 3-point line, averaging 12.5 3-point attempts per game.

However, DiVincenzo is not known for his passing prowess. He’s averaged just 2.7 assists per game for his career, and that figure is down to 2.4 this season. He’s coming off a zero-assist performance in his last contest, and he had just three assists in the game prior. His minutes have also come slightly back to reality after the All-Star break, racking up just 33.2 minutes over his past two contests.

Ultimately, this number seems about an assist too high. With Jalen Brunson running the show, DiVincenzo can focus on doing what he does best – knocking down shots from the perimeter. I’d play the under on 3.5 up to -140.

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