NBA Best Bets for March 13th. Spreads, Player Props, and more to bet.

The sports calendar is slowly heating up. We’re in the middle of conference championship week for college basketball, and the PGA TOUR has one of the biggest events on its calendar. With MLB Opening Day right around the corner, we’ve almost made it through the doldrums of the post-NFL season.

That said, the NBA remains king on Wednesday. With 10 games to choose from, there are plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.

Pistons (-3.5) vs. Raptors (-105; Caesars)

Break up the Pistons? After covering as home favorites vs. the Hornets on Monday, I’m going right back to the well on Wednesday. Don’t get me wrong, Detroit is still a bad team, but they are playing some of their best basketball of the season. They’ve won three of their past seven games, and they’re 22nd in Net Rating over that time frame.

On the other hand, the Raptors are headed in the wrong direction. They’re dead last in Net Rating over their past seven contests, winning just one of them. Most of that poor production stems from the injury report. The team was already playing without Scottie Barnes, while R.J. Barrett, Gary Trent Jr., and Immanuel Quickley have been out of the lineup of late.

There’s a chance that Trent and Quickley suit up on Wednesday, but with the Raptors out of postseason contention, there’s no need to rush them back. Even if they do play, you could argue that the Pistons have more talent. It doesn’t feel great laying points with a team as bad as Detroit, but they’re the clear sharp target in this matchup. The spread has already increased from Pistons -1.5 to Pistons -3.5, so I think they cover for the second straight game.

Cavaliers (+7.0) at Pelicans (-110; Caesars)

This one all comes down to the health of Donovan Mitchell. Without Mitchell, the team has gone just 9-9 this season. With him, they’ve gone 32-15. That’s not a huge shocker. They’ve increased their Net Rating by +13.3 points per 100 possessions with Mitchell on the floor, which is easily the top mark on the squad. He’s fifth in the NBA in scoring at 28.0 points per game, so he’s been a huge boon to their offense in particular.

The Cavaliers could really use Mitchell’s scoring on Wednesday as they take on the Pelicans. They’ve been the No. 1 team in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, propelling them to a 6-3 record. They’re No. 2 in Net Rating over that time frame, so they’ve been even better than their record suggests.

Fortunately, Mitchell has been upgraded to questionable after missing the past seven games. His potential return has already had an impact on the spread, dropping this number from +7.5 to +6.5 at some locations. We can still grab a +7.0 on Caesars, and I suggest locking that in while you can. If Mitchell is confirmed in before tip-off, this number is going to decrease by a couple of points.

Nuggets (-3.5) at Heat (-108; FanDuel)

The Nuggets are starting to have that look. They won the title last season, and they’ve been red-hot over the second half of the season. They’ve rattled off nine wins over their past 10 games, with the only blemish coming in overtime vs. the Suns. They’re third in the league in Net Rating over that time frame, outscoring their opponents by +11.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Nuggets have enjoyed a home stretch recently, but they’ll begin a four-game road trip Wednesday vs. the Heat. The Nuggets have always been a better home team than on the road, and they’re just 9-13-1 ATS as road favorites this season.

Still, with the way Nikola Jokic is playing at the moment, I don’t think the Heat have the horses to keep up. We saw that in the NBA Finals last season, when the Nuggets won both games in Miami en route to a five-game series win.

The Heat are also operating at less than full strength at the moment, with Tyler Herro and Kevin Love both out with injuries. This spread is as high as Nuggets -4.5 at DraftKings, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if the number increased before tip-off.

Nicolas Claxton Under 9.5 rebounds (-110; BetMGM)

Play To: Under 9.5 (-120)
Paydirt DFS simulations: Under 9.5 in 68.3%

Claxton has become a solid starting center in his fifth professional season, averaging 12.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He’s been particularly effective on the glass of late, racking up at least 10 boards in four straight contests.

However, he’s going to face a stiff test on Wednesday vs. the Magic. Orlando has played at the fifth-slowest pace this season, and they also rank fifth in team rebound rate. That’s a bad combination for rebounding purposes. The Magic allow the fewest rebounds per game, including the fifth-fewest boards to opposing centers.

Claxton has already faced the Magic three times this season, and he’s had seven boards or fewer in each matchup. Part of that stems from all three games turning into blowouts, but I’m willing to bet on Claxton going under once again.

The Paydirt DFS player prop simulations have Claxton going under 68.3% of the time, which is more than good enough for a bet at -110.

Chris Paul Over 10.5 rebounds + assists (+106; FanDuel)

Play To: Over 10.5 (-125)
Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 10.5 in 66.8%

The CP3 to the Warriors experiment hasn’t gone as smoothly as the team would’ve liked. Paul has missed large stretches due to injury, and he’s been less efficient than usual when on the floor. He’s shooting just 43.4% from the field this season, which is the third-worst mark of his illustrious career.

That said, Paul is still capable of piling up the peripherals. He’s averaged 7.1 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game, and he’s done that in just 27.0 minutes per game. Since moving into the starting lineup in place of the injured Steph Curry, he’s racked up 13 and 17 rebounds + assists in his past two contests.

Expect that production to continue. Paul has now started 13 games for the Warriors, and he’s averaged 30.6 minutes and 11.8 rebounds + assists in those contests. Overall, in 15 games with at least 29.9 minutes, he’s gone over 10.5 in 11 of them.

The Mavericks represent a solid matchup – they’ve played at the eighth-fastest pace this season – so getting the over on 10.5 at better than even money is a steal.

NBA Best Bets for March 13th. Spreads, Player Props, and more to bet.

Pistons (-3.5) vs. Raptors (-105; Caesars)

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Cavaliers (+7.0) at Pelicans (-110; Caesars)

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Nuggets (-3.5) at Heat (-108; FanDuel)

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Nicolas Claxton Under 9.5 rebounds (-110; BetMGM)

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Chris Paul Over 10.5 rebounds + assists (+106; FanDuel)

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