NBA Best Bets for March 15th. Spreads, Player Props, and more to bet.

Friday’s NBA slate is on the smaller side, with just six games to choose from. That said, we still have some opportunities to look for value in the betting market.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite options for tonight’s slate.

Suns (-10.0) at Hornets (-108; DraftKings)

I have gone down with the Suns quite a bit recently. They failed to cover in either of their two recent losses vs. the Celtics, and they couldn’t get the job done against the Cavaliers either. Overall, they’re just 25-39-2 ATS this season, giving them the second-worst record in the league.

As bad as all that sounds, I’m going back to the well one more time Friday vs. the Hornets. While the Suns may not have been able to keep up with the Celtics, they should be able to blow the doors off Charlotte. The Hornets are 26th in Net Rating over their past 10 games, and they simply don’t have the talent to compete at the NBA level. They traded away a bunch of key players before the trade deadline, and they’re also dealing with some key injuries.

Meanwhile, the Suns are essentially at full strength. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal will all be available, and the team has hummed with all three players on the court. They’ve posted a +8.4 Net Rating across 507 minutes together, so Charlotte shouldn’t be able to keep up.

The Suns are on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, but I’m willing to overlook that in such a mismatch. This spread has already risen by half a point, and I could see it getting even larger before tip-off.

Clippers (+7.5) at Pelicans (-110; BetMGM)

This is the marquee matchup on Friday’s slate. The Pelicans have been one of the best teams in basketball since the All-Star break. They’re first in defensive efficiency over that time frame, limiting opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. It’s resulted in the fourth-best Net Rating, trailing only the Celtics, Nuggets, and Thunder.

On the other side, the Clippers have had one of the best offenses since the All-Star break. They were at basically full strength on the first leg of a back-to-back on Thursday, with Kawhi Leonard returning to the lineup after playing just 12 minutes in their previous contest.

There’s always a chance that the team chooses to rest someone — James Harden is considered uncertain to play — but LA has been one of the best teams in basketball for most of the year. They own the fourth-best record in the Western Conference, giving them a three-game lead over the Pelicans in the standings.

Personally, 7.5 points feels like too many to be giving a team like the Clippers. I think the spread should be closer to five as long as Leonard and Paul George are both in the lineup.

Hawks (-2.5) at Jazz (-110; FanDuel)

Both of these squads are dealing with some serious health issues at the moment. The Hawks are still without Trae Young, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu, while Bogdan Bogdanovic and Jalen Johnson are both questionable. Johnson has missed the past three games for Atlanta, while Bogdanovic was able to play through a questionable tag in their most recent contest.

While that sounds bad, Atlanta is still in better shape than Utah. The Jazz will be without Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, and Kris Dunn, while talented rookie Taylor Hendricks is questionable.

Without Markkanen and Clarkson, this team is going to really struggle to score points. They’ve averaged just 109.8 points per 100 possessions with both players off the floor this season, which would be the fifth-worst full-season mark in the league.

This is a game where I’m going to be monitoring the injury report. Johnson has been really important to the squad this season, particularly on the defensive end. We’ll likely lose some spread value if we wait for his official status before locking in a play, but I think that’s the best course of action.

Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 assists + rebounds (+100; BetMGM)

Play To: Over 5.5 (-125)
Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 4.5 in 93.48%

As usual, I’m going to start off the player props by looking at a player that 90% of casual NBA fans have probably never heard of. Champagnie is a role player for one of the worst teams in basketball, so I don’t blame you if this is the first you’re hearing of him.

However, he’s taken on a bigger role for the team of late. He’s played at least 27.6 minutes in three straight games, and he’s eclipsed 33.5 minutes in two of them. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, he should be able to cruise past this number pretty frequently.

That hasn’t been the case so far, with Champagnie going for four rebounds + assists in two of those contests. That said, he had 12 in the other. He’s averaged 5.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists per 36 minutes for the year, so I expect his production to pick up moving forward.

There’s always a chance that the Spurs get blown out, but the fact that this game is being played in Texas should help. The Nuggets are also a notoriously bad team to back as big road favorites, so this game could be closer than expected. Overall, the Paydirt DFS simulations give Champagnie a 93.48% chance of going over 4.5, so I’m all over this prop.

Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 points (-111; FanDuel)

Play To: Over 17.5 (-115)
Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 17.5 in 56.62%

The margin on this prop is significantly smaller than the previous one, but I think it offers enough value to bet. Bogdanovic has moved into the starting lineup with all the team’s recent injuries, and he’s served as a capable No. 2 scorer behind Dejounte Murray. He’s had at least 23 points in two of his past four games, and he’s averaged 15.8 field goal attempts over that stretch.

He’s coming off just five points in his last outing, but the Jazz are the perfect matchup for Bogdanovic to get back on track. They’re 29th in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve dipped to 30th since the All-Star break. They also allow the most made 3-pointers per game, which plays into Bogdanovic’s strengths.

This prop doesn’t grade out particularly well in the Paydirt sims, but I’m willing to buy low on Bogdanovic after a poor showing in his last outing. It also pairs well with the Hawks to cover.

NBA Best Bets for March 15th. Spreads, Player Props, and more to bet.

Suns (-10.0) at Hornets (-108; DraftKings)

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Clippers (+7.5) at Pelicans (-110; BetMGM)

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Hawks (-2.5) at Jazz (-110; FanDuel)

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Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 assists + rebounds (+100; BetMGM)

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Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 points (-111; FanDuel)

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