NBA Best Bets for March 18th - Spread Bets and Player Props to bet
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite NBA bets for Monday, March 18th, including spread bets and player props to target.
It is one of the best weeks of the year for sports fans.
The NBA is entering the home stretch, with less than a month to go in the regular season. There’s still plenty left to be decided, so the final month will be crucial for determining playoff seeding and which teams will qualify for the play-in tournament which makes finding NBA best bets even more fun.
The NCAA tourney kicks off on Tuesday, and we’ll have basically non-stop college basketball all day from Thursday through Sunday. I’m not the biggest college basketball fan, but who doesn’t love filling out a bracket and sweating the NCAA tournament?
Baseball also kicks off the regular season with a two-game series between the Dodgers and Padres in South Korea. It’s a small preview before the real Opening Day on Thursday, Mar. 28 featuring the best team in baseball against one of their biggest divisional rivals.
Let’s dive into five of the best bets for Monday’s NBA slate to get the action started.
Best NBA Spread Bets for March 18th
Miami Heat (+2.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (-112; DraftKings)
The Heat are coming off a gutsy win over the Pistons on Sunday where they had to survive without Jimmy Butler. Bam Adebayo knocked down a game-winning 3-pointer as time expired, while Duncan Robinson poured in a season-high 30 points.
There’s a chance that Butler returns to the lineup on Monday, which would be a huge boon to the squad. Butler may not put up true superstar numbers, but his impact on the court cannot be overstated. The Heat have increased their Net Rating by +8.7 points with Butler on the floor, improving on both offense and defense.
While Butler returning would be nice, I don’t think Miami necessarily needs him to beat the 76ers. Philadelphia has been lost ever since losing Joel Embiid to injury. They’re just 11-22 without their star big man in the lineup, and they’ve dipped to 25th in defensive efficiency over their recent stretch without him.
Additionally, Tobias Harris missed the team’s last contest, so they could be more banged up than usual. Philly has won just two of their past seven games: a victory over a shorthanded Knicks squad and a win vs. the lowly Hornets. They’ve suffered defeats to cellar-dwellers like the Grizzlies and Nets over that time frame, so I don’t think they deserve to be favored over Miami.
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Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5) at Utah Jazz (-115; BetMGM)
The Jazz were a solid basketball team early in the year, but they have officially embraced the tank. They made some small deals at the deadline, while guys like Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson have been in and out of the lineup since the All-Star break. Clarkson has already been ruled out vs. the Timberwolves, while Markkanen is listed as questionable. Markkanen has missed six straight contests, so it should surprise no one if he’s out of the lineup once again.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are still fighting for the top seed in the West. Their path to the No. 1 seed got a lot harder without Karl-Anthony Towns, but they’re currently 1.0 game behind the Thunder and 0.5 games behind the Nuggets. They dispatched the Jazz by 19 points in Minnesota on Saturday, so they should be able to pick up another victory on Monday.
The big question is can the cover the spread? Even if the team chooses to rest some players on the front end of a back-to-back, I think the answer is yes. Anthony Edwards is notably not on the injury report, so he should be good to go. As long as Edwards is available, he should propel this squad to a comfortable victory. Utah is dead last in defensive efficiency over the second half of the year, and they’re merely 27th in Net Rating over that time frame.
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Detroit Pistons (+15.0) at Boston Celtics (-105; Caesars)
Am I asking for trouble by backing one of the worst teams in basketball against one of the best? Probably, but I can’t help but grab the points in this spot.
Boston has been nothing short of a juggernaut this season. They’re first in Net Rating and own the best record in the league, and they’ve outscored opponents by 18.4 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break.
That said, this could be a spot where they’re slightly vulnerable.
The Celtics are going to be on the second leg of a back-to-back, and with the best record in the East basically locked up, they could use this as an opportunity to rest some players. Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White have all dealt with injury issues of late, while Al Horford is always a threat to rest on a back-to-back.
The Pistons are also playing some of their best basketball of the season of late. They’re 4-6 over their past 10 games, and they’ve posted a Net Rating of -3.6 over that stretch. Those obviously aren’t numbers to write home about, but they’re vast improvements compared to how dreadful this team was to start the year.
Even if Boston is shorthanded, I don’t expect the Pistons to win this game. However, they could keep it closer than expected.
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NBA Player Prop Bets for March 18th
Toumani Camara Over 1.5 assists (-105; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 1.5 (-120)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 1.5 in 59.72%
The Blazers are limping towards the finish line, and they should be shorthanded again on Monday. Jerami Grant is doubtful vs. the Bulls, while Matisse Thybulle is questionable.
Grant has missed four of the past five games for the Blazers, which has allowed Camara to move into the starting lineup. He’s played heavy minutes in those contests, logging at least 30.3 in all four games. When you’re on the court that much, you can stumble over 1.5 assists without even trying.
Camara has gone over this figure in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged 2.8 assists per game over that stretch. The Paydirt sims aren’t particularly bullish on Camara, but I’m willing to target this over regardless. As long as Grant is out, -105 on over 1.5 assists is an excellent price.
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Kyle Anderson Over 5.5 assists (-125; Fanatics)
- Play To: Over 5.5 (-150)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 5.5 in 86.88%
I have always been a huge fan of Anderson. He’s one of the most unique players in basketball, and not in the same way as guys like Victor Wembanyama or Giannis Antetokounmpo. Anderson is arguably the worst pure athlete in the NBA, but he’s managed to thrive due to his basketball IQ and savvy.
That includes the ability to pass the basketball. Anderson has averaged 4.2 assists per game this season, and he’s done it in just 22.5 minutes per game. Now that Towns is out of the lineup, Anderson has had the opportunity to play a whole lot more. He’s averaged 31.8 minutes over his past three games, and he’s responded with an average of 7.0 assists. That includes nine dimes in his most recent outing, which came against this same Jazz squad.
Anderson’s assist prop is not available across most of the industry at the moment, but you can find it at PointsBet/Fanatics. It should become more widely available as the day progresses, but I’d lock it in as soon as you have a line available.
