NBA Best Bets for March 6th. Spread Bets, Props, and more to bet.
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite bets for Wednesday's eight-game slate in the NBA, including spreads, totals, and player props to target.
The NBA goes straight from a nine-game slate on Tuesday into an eight-game slate on Wednesday. That means there are going to be plenty of teams on back-to-backs, so be sure to keep a close eye on the injury report.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite options for Wednesday’s slate:
Washington Wizards (+7.5) vs. Orlando Magic (-115; BetMGM)
The Magic have been rolling recently, winning 12 of their past 15 games. They’re eighth in Net Rating over that time frame, outscoring opponents by an average of +6.1 points per 100 possessions. Their recent hot streak has moved them to 10 games over .500 for the season and puts them in a tie with the Knicks for fourth place in the Eastern Conference.
Still, it’s fair to be skeptical of Orlando. Most of their recent wins have come against subpar competition. Five of their past 12 wins have come against the Pistons and Spurs — two of the worst teams in basketball — while their most recent win came against a depleted Hornets squad.
The Wizards aren’t going to represent a huge step up in competition, but they do have a few things working for them. For starters, the Magic are on the second leg of a back-to-back, which is a situation they’ve struggled with this season. They’re a respectable 6-6 ATS, but their average margin of victory in those contests is -8.7 points per game. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the league.
The Magic also might be without Jonathan Isaac and Gary Harris for this contest. Neither player typically carries a huge workload, but Isaac was instrumental in their win over the Hornets on Tuesday, and Harris has shot 51.3% from 3-point range since returning from injury in early February. The Wizards are on a 15-game losing streak, but it wouldn’t shock me if this is the spot where they finally get back in the win column.
You can tail the Wizards at BetMGM, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up with code FANTASYLIFE below:
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors Under 227.0 (-110; FanDuel)
If you haven’t noticed recently, the under has been on a serious tear since the All-Star break:
The two teams at the top of the under leaderboard recently – the Warriors and the Bucks – will square off in a marquee showdown on Wednesday. They’re a combined 13-0 to the under over the second half of the season, and there’s reason to believe in another low-scoring affair in this matchup.
The Bucks have shown a renewed sense of urgency on the defensive end of the floor. After slipping into the bottom-10 in defensive efficiency during the first half of the year, Doc Rivers has propelled Milwaukee to the No. 1 ranking in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. They’re allowing just 102.6 points per 100 possessions, which is nearly two points better than the second-best team over that time frame. They didn’t even have Giannis Antetokounmpo available for their last outing, but they still limited the Clippers to just 106 points.
On the other side, the Warriors are also top-10 in defensive efficiency since the break. However, the bigger story has been their offense. They’ve managed just 108.3 points per 100 possessions over their past seven games, which sandwiches them between the Pistons (108.8) and Blazers (108.2) over that stretch. It goes without saying that’s not the company the Warriors want to be keeping.
The Warriors should get a bit of help on Wednesday with Andrew Wiggins re-entering the fold, but their offense has been worse with Wiggins on the floor so far this season (-0.6 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass). Ultimately, expect points to be at a premium in this matchup.
You can tail the under at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below:
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-115; BetMGM)
Both of these teams are coming off solid wins on Tuesday. The Hawks managed to take care of business on the road vs. the Knicks, who were playing without their two best players. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers engineered an impressive comeback vs. the Celtics, erasing a 22-point deficit in the fourth quarter.
While the Cavaliers' win was more impressive, I don’t think it’s particularly sustainable.
Dean Wade turned into Steph Curry in the fourth quarter, scoring 20 points while shooting 5-5 from 3-point range. I don’t think I’m going out on a huge limb by saying that’s not going to happen again.
The only reason Wade was in the game at that point is because the injuries are starting to pile up for Cleveland. Donovan Mitchell was already sidelined with a knee injury, while Evan Mobley exited Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury. We don’t know Mobley’s status for tonight’s contest yet, but I’d be pretty surprised if he’s in the lineup.
The Hawks are dealing with a key injury of their own – Trae Young has missed the past five games – but the Hawks have actually increased their Net Rating with Young off the floor this season. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have played 737 minutes without Mitchell and Mobley, and they’ve posted a -4.3 Net Rating over that stretch. They should be bigger favorites if Mobley is ultimately ruled out, so I’m locking them in before that happens.
Terance Mann Over 3.5 rebounds (+124; DraftKings)
- Play To: Over 3.5 (+100)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 3.5 in 72.0%
The Clippers are a star-laden team, so Mann doesn’t typically get much attention. He’s played big minutes at times this year when Paul George or Kawhi Leonard isn’t available, but the team is at full strength on the wing currently. Mann is still starting, but he’s played 22 minutes or less in three straight games.
Still, Mann’s diminished role doesn’t mean he can’t get to four rebounds vs. the Rockets. He went for four rebounds two games ago vs. the Timberwolves, and that was a significantly tougher matchup. The Timberwolves are seventh in team rebound rate, while the Rockets are 13th. Houston also plays at a faster pace, resulting in more rebound opportunities.
I don’t want to go overboard with players who are projected for less than 20 minutes, but this prop offers value at anything better than even money. The Paydirt sims have Mann going over 3.5 rebounds in 72% of their simulations, so +124 is an excellent price to target.
Ayo Dosunmu Over 4.5 assists (+105; DraftKings)
- Play To: Over 4.5 (-115)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 4.5 in 65.64%
I rode this prop successfully on Monday, and I’m going right back to the well. If anything, this is an even better spot for Dosunmu to rack up assists. The Jazz have been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball of late, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games.
Dosunmu isn’t a traditional point guard, but he’s playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment. He’s played at least 37.9 minutes in eight of his past nine games, and he’s averaged 39.3 minutes in those contests. Unsurprisingly, he’s responded with an average of 5.3 assists per game, and he’s handed out at least five dimes in five of his past six outings.
Add it all up, and I love the over on 4.5 assists at +105. I’d still play the over up to -115, but I suggest locking this one in early.
You can tail the props at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets when you sign up below!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.