NBA Best Bets for March 8th. Spread Bets, Props, and more to bet.

If you haven’t been paying attention, we’ve seen a big shift in the NBA towards unders recently.

It culminated on Sunday, when all eight games went under the listed total, leading to a big payday for a few individuals:

A handful of teams have yet to see a game go over in the season’s unofficial second half, including the Warriors (8-0) and Bucks (7-0).

The big question is – will the low-scoring trend continue, or is it just a blip on the radar? Unders were a big trend during the NFL season as well, so it’s certainly something to keep your eye on. There has been sharp money tracked on the under for six of Friday’s eight NBA contests, so the pros certainly seem aware of this growing trend.

Speaking of Friday, let’s dive into five of my favorite plays:

New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (-108; FanDuel)

I was fortunate enough to lock this bet in early at -6.5 — which you can find in our NBA Bet Tracker — but it’s still firmly in play for me at -7.5. The Pelicans are going to essentially be at full strength for this matchup, while the 76ers are in shambles.

Joel Embiid remains sidelined, and his absence has been a major issue for the 76ers this season. They’ve been one of the best teams in basketball with Embiid available, posting a 26-8 record, but they’re just 9-19 without their star big man. Making matters worse, Tyrese Maxey will join Embiid on the sidelines for the third straight game. Unsurprisingly, the team has lost each of their past two outings without Embiid and Maxey, and they’ve come against two subpar opponents in the Grizzlies and Nets.

The Pelicans represent a clear step up in weight class. They’re just 4-3 since the All-Star break, but their record belies how good they’ve been during that stretch. They’ve outscored their opponents by +12.8 points per 100 possessions, which is the second-best mark in the NBA. Only the Celtics have been better, thanks in large part to a 52-point win over the Warriors.

The Pels are locked in a battle for one of the final guaranteed playoff spots in the Western Conference, so every game is massive for them at the moment. They should be focused for this matchup vs. the 76ers, and as long as they are, I don’t see how Philly can keep up.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; Caesars)

This was another game I locked into the Bet Tracker early, but unlike with the Pelicans, this line has moved against me. Still, moving from one-point favorites to one-point underdogs isn’t a huge deal; they’re likely going to need to win the game to cover regardless.

Both of these teams are dealing with injuries at the moment, but the Cavaliers are in worse shape. The Timberwolves with have to survive at least the next month without Karl-Anthony Towns, but they’ve been able to absorb his absence for most of the year. In fact, the team has a robust +13.8 Net Rating with Towns off the floor as long as Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert are on it. Both players saw close to 40 minutes sans Towns on Friday, so they should be just fine without him in the short term.

On the other side, the Cavaliers will have to overcome the absences of Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Unlike Minnesota, that’s had a real impact on their squad. They’ve posted a -4.7 Net Rating with both players off the floor, and they’ve been particularly poor without Mitchell. Their offensive rating decreases by -5.1 points per 100 possessions without Mitchell, while they allow +8.1 additional points per 100 possessions defensively (per Cleaning the Glass).

This is a tough travel spot for the Timberwolves, who will be on the road for the second consecutive night, but I think they’re being slightly disrespected by this spread.

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks Under 205.5 (-110; FanDuel)

Of all the unders on Friday’s slate, this one appears to be one of the most popular among the professionals. The total opened up at 211 points, but it’s been taken all the way down to 205.5. That’s more reminiscent of the 1990s NBA than the 2020s.

There aren’t a ton of teams that could possibly take the court with an under this low, but the Magic and Knicks are two of them. Orlando has been one of the best defensive teams in basketball all season, and they’re second in defensive rating since the All-Star break. More importantly, these are two of the slowest teams in basketball: The Magic are 26th in pace this season, while the Knicks are dead last.

Additionally, the Knicks continue to deal with some massive injuries. Julius Randle and OG Anunoby remain out of the lineup, while Jalen Brunson is questionable. Brunson’s status is huge for the Knicks’ offense, with the team averaging -11.9 fewer points per 100 possessions with Brunson off the floor.

“Chasing steam” and grabbing worse numbers than the sharps is something I typically try to avoid, but it’s hard to look at this game and see any semblance of offense. I’ll grab the under on 205.5.

Vasillije Micic Under 21.5 points + assists (-105; DraftKings)

Play To: -115
Paydirt DFS Simulations: Under 21.5 in 76.58%

If your first thought when reading this prop is “who?” – I’d like to officially welcome you to late-season NBA.

We’ve reached the point in the year where teams near the bottom of the standings stop trying to win games, leading to big workloads for unknown players.

Micic has appeared in 41 games this season – 30 for the Thunder, 11 for the Hornets – but he’s started each of the past two. He had an excellent showing in his last game vs. the Magic, racking up 21 points and four assists, but I wouldn’t expect that kind of production moving forward. He’s had just two games this year with more than 13 points, and he’s gone over 21.5 points + assists in just two of 11 games with the Hornets. He is playing slightly more as a member of the starting lineup, but this number seems a bit too inflated.

The Paydirt sims seem to agree, with Micic going under 21.5 points + assists in more than 76.5% of their simulations. I’m happy to grab this under at -105.

Jabari Smith Jr. Under 8.5 rebounds (+105; BetMGM)

Play To: -120
Paydirt DFS Simulations: Under 8.5 in 83.8%

Smith has shown marginal improvement in his second professional season, both as a scorer and on the glass. His effective field goal percentage is up nearly 50 points, while he’s averaging 8.5 rebounds per game.

That said, his rebound numbers are slightly inflated at the moment due to some outlier performances. He had a four-game stretch in late February where he averaged 15.5 rebounds per game, but since then, he’s had three straight contests with five boards or fewer.

The Blazers do represent a solid matchup for rebounding purposes – they’re 23rd in team rebound rate – but this number is simply too high. Getting the under at plus-money is a steal.

NBA Best Bets for March 8th. Spread Bets, Props, and more to bet.

New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (-108; FanDuel)

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Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; Caesars)

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Orlando Magic at New York Knicks Under 205.5 (-110; FanDuel)

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Vasillije Micic Under 21.5 points + assists (-105; DraftKings)

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Jabari Smith Jr. Under 8.5 rebounds (+105; BetMGM)

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