NBA Best Bets for Thursday, February 1st. Bet against the hottest team in basketball?
Matt LaMarca highlights his favorite NBA bets for Thursday, February 1st, including sides, totals, and player props to bet.
It’s that time of year, baby!
If you’re someone who primarily bets on the NFL, it’s time to start dipping your toes into some of the other offerings across the various sportsbooks.
The NBA has four games to choose from on Thursday, which gives us plenty of opportunity to look for betting value. Let’s dive into some of my favorite sides, totals, and props, which can also be found in the free NBA Bet Tracker.
Utah Jazz (-4.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-110; BetMGM)
The big news heading into this matchup involves Joel Embiid, who has already been ruled out with an injury.
Embiid has been the best player in basketball this season, averaging more points per 36 minutes than any player in the history of the league. Unfortunately, this will be his 13th missed game of the season, and there’s a good chance he could miss some additional time as well. That’s caused his MVP odds to plummet, since he will be ineligible to win the award if he doesn’t play in 65 games.
Embiid isn’t the only injury that Philly is dealing with. Tyrese Maxey is also questionable after missing the past three games. The team has posted a -6.9 Net Rating with both players off the floor this season, so they would not be in a good position if both players are sidelined.
Ultimately, the team has gone just 3-9 with Embiid out of the lineup this season, and now they’ll have to travel to Utah to take on the Jazz.
The Jazz have stumbled a bit recently, losing five of their past seven games, but six of those contests were on the road. The Jazz will finally return home after a long stretch away, where they’re a league-best 16-5 ATS.
Utah is eighth in Net Rating at home, so they’re good enough to take advantage of this depleted 76ers squad. This number is up to -5.0 at some locations, and it could continue to rise if Maxey is ultimately ruled out.
You can tail the Jazz at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet of just $5 or more:
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Indiana Pacers (+2.5) at New York Knicks (-102; DraftKings)
Betting against the Knicks recently has been a death sentence.
They’ve won 14 of 16 games since acquiring OG Anunoby, and they’re first in Net Rating over their past 15 games. They’re currently riding an eight-game winning streak, with six of those wins coming by at least 15 points.
Still, the Knicks are pretty banged up at the moment. Julius Randle is first on the team in usage rate, and he’s second in assists and rebounds per game. He’s going to miss an extended period of time with a shoulder injury, leaving a pretty big hole in the frontcourt.
Additionally, OG Anunoby has missed the past two games after aggravating a pre-existing elbow injury. He’s officially questionable for this contest, so it’s possible he misses his third straight game.
Meanwhile, the Pacers are getting a bit healthier. Tyrese Haliburton returned to the lineup on Tuesday after missing 10 of the previous 11 games. He was limited to just 22.1 minutes – and will likely be limited against the Knicks – but he’s expected to be in the lineup once again.
When Haliburton has been available for the Pacers this season, their offense has been borderline unstoppable. They’re averaging more points per 100 possessions than any offense in league history, and with Haliburton on the court, they’re unsurprisingly even better. They’re averaging an absurd 126.6 points per 100 possessions in that scenario, so it’s going to be tough for a banged-up Knicks squad to keep up.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies Under 215.5 (-110; Caesars)
Unless you’re a die-hard NBA fan, I’d be surprised if you could name more than just a few players on the Grizzlies’ current active roster.
Their injury report is ridiculous at this point: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, Marcus Smart, and Jake LaRavia are all sidelined with long-term injuries.
Additionally, Ziaire Williams has already been ruled out for this contest, while Luke Kennard and Derrick Rose are doubtful.
Jan 28, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (13) shoots the ball while Indiana Pacers forward Jalen Smith (25) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
It’s gotten so bad for Memphis that they were forced to sign two players after having just eight available in their last contest. Tosan Evbuomwan and Trey Jemison were added on 10-day contracts, so at least they’ll have a few additional bodies vs. the Cavaliers.
Still, this is not a roster that is particularly ripe with NBA talent at the moment.
Stylistically, this is also a matchup that screams under. The Cavs and Grizzlies might not be playing quite as slow as in previous years, but they’re still below-average teams from a pace perspective. They’re both in the top-six in defensive efficiency over the past 15 games, while the Grizzlies are 26th in offensive efficiency over that time frame.
This number has already dipped a full four points since opening at 219.5, thanks to 82% of the bets and 95% of the dollars landing on the under (per the Action Network). That’s a lot of CLV to give up, but I still think this number is too high.
You can tail the under at Caesars Sportsbook, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is ON THE HOUSE when you sign up below!
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Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 3-pointers (-140; DraftKings)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
DiVincenzo has been kind to us recently, easily cashing overs on his PRA prop on Monday and his 3-point prop on Tuesday. With the Knicks dealing with some key injuries, the Big Ragu has picked up the slack admirably.
I’m going right back to the 3-point well on Thursday.
DiVincenzo has had a career year from 3-point range, knocking down 42.6% of his triples on 6.6 attempts per game. However, with Randle and Anunoby out of the lineup, his volume has increased exponentially over the past two games. He has 30 total 3-point attempts in those contests, and he’s knocked down 14 of them. He has at least five 3-point makes in both contests, so getting to four vs. the fast-paced, defensively-challenged Pacers should be very doable.
Our friend James McCool from Paydirt has DiVincenzo going over 3.5 3-pointers in just under 88% of the time using his Prop Bet Simulator:
Until the sportsbooks adjust, I’m going to keep loading up on DiVincenzo props.
Anthony Davis Under 0.5 3-pointers (-140; DraftKings)
Tonight’s marquee matchup (on paper) features the Los Angeles Lakers traveling to Boston to take on the Celtics.
Unfortunately, the Lakers just aren’t a very good basketball team at the moment. They’re just 10-16 since winning the In-Season Tournament, and they’re double-digit underdogs against the Celtics.
I’m not seeing a ton of value in the game itself, but I do like the under on Davis’ 3-point prop. Davis was a perfect 3-3 from behind the arc in his last game, which is the only reason this number is priced so favorably. He’s made zero 3-pointers in 34 of 46 games, and he’s attempted one 3-pointer or less in 31 of them. Essentially, we’re betting on a career 30.0% 3-point shooter to miss the one or two attempts he gets from behind the arc against a good Celtics defense.
This is another prop that grades out extremely well using McCool’s simulations, hitting at an unreal 95.88% clip. I’ll bet this number every day of the week.
You can tail the Davis under at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:
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