NBA Bets for April 29 - Top Picks for Monday's NBA Playoff Games

We had our first series win of the postseason on Sunday, with the Timberwolves completing a four-game sweep of the Suns. We’ll have two more teams look to punch their ticket to the second round on Monday, with the Nuggets and Thunder both one win away. The Celtics will also look to re-establish their dominance over the Heat after surprisingly dropping Game 2 in Boston.

Can the Lakers and Pelicans avoid elimination? Can the Heat shock the world and send things back to Boston tied at two games apiece? Let’s dive into my favorite betting options for Monday’s slate.

Best NBA Bets for April 29th

Celtics (-10.5) at Heat (-108; DraftKings)

The Heat upsetting the Celtics in Boston was easily the biggest surprise of the postseason. The Celtics were the best team in basketball by a comfortable margin during the regular season, and the Heat don’t even have their best player at the moment.

Yet without Jimmy Butler, this team managed to walk into the Celtics’ building and secure a 10-point victory.

How is that possible? Well, the Heat shot the ball ridiculously well from 3-point range.

They knocked down 23 of 43 attempts (53.5%), and they outscored the Celtics by 33 points from the perimeter. Tyler Herro knocked down six triples, while Caleb Martin, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic, and Haywood Highsmith were a combined 14-21.

The Heat’s 3-point volume is going to make them a volatile team on a night-to-night basis. They made a lot of shots in last year’s playoffs, which is why they made it to the NBA Finals.

When they don’t make shots, they’re not going to be particularly competitive. We saw that in Game 3 back in Miami, where the team managed just 84 points in a 20-point loss.

Which version of the team will show up on Monday? There’s no way to know for sure, but Boston was much more focused on contesting their 3-point looks in Game 3.

I would expect that to continue in Game 4, and the Celtics were sixth in Opponent 3-point Percentage during the regular season. As long as the Heat don’t get hot from downtown, they’ve shown no ability to compete with the Celtics in this series. I’ll take my chances with the road favorites.

Lakers (+7.5) at Nuggets (-112; DraftKings)

This has been a fascinating series. The Nuggets are going back to Denver with a 3-1 series lead, so they’ll have a chance to close things out on their home court. My favorite bet in Round 1 was the Nuggets -1.5 games, so I’m hoping they’ll be able to take care of business.

Still, it has been far from smooth sailing for the defending champs. They’ve been behind the Lakers for large stretches throughout this series:

The Lakers have hung tough with the Nuggets all series, so I don’t see why that would change in Game 5. They had chances to win each of the first two games in Denver, and I expect a similar outcome on Monday.

I’m hopeful that the Nuggets can squeak out a victory – they do not want to go back to Los Angeles for Game 6 – but it should be a close game regardless.

More Picks for Monday's NBA Playoff Games

Thunder -4.5 at Pelicans (-115)

Like the Timberwolves, the young Thunder have easily taken care of business so far in the first round. Their only close contest was in Game 1, and that was a game where the Pelicans obliterated the Thunder on the glass.

The rebounding edge has been much closer in the past two contests, and the Thunder have won by a combined 53 points. As long as OKC doesn’t no-show on the boards on Monday, I don’t think the Pelicans can hang with this team. It’s too much to ask without Zion Williamson and a banged-up Brandon Ingram.

Austin Reaves Over 3.5 assists (-142)

It hasn’t been the best series for Reaves, but he proved his value in the Lakers’ Game 4 win. He had 21 points and six dimes, and I think he can duplicate his success as a distributor on Monday.

Reaves averaged 5.5 assists per game during the regular season, so his assist prop is way lower than usual. The Paydirt DFS simulations give him a 77.6% chance of going over this figure.

C.J. McCollum Over 2.5 3-pointers (-115)

McCollum has been thrust into the lead dog role in this series, and frankly, he’s just not cut out for it. He’s shot just 37.9% from the field and 22.7% from 3-point range, which is a big reason why the Pelicans have been noncompetitive.

Still, he’s put up 22 total 3-pointers through three games, so asking him to make three in Game 4 seems pretty reasonable. McCollum shot 42.9% from 3-point range this season, so he’s more than capable of knocking down some shots.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Friday: 2-3 (-0.59 units)
Playoffs: 11-13 (-1.42 units)