NBA Bets for April 30 - Top Picks for Tuesday's NBA Playoff Games

Monday was a fantastic night of basketball. Not only was it our best betting night of the postseason – we went 4-1 on our selections – but we had some excellent contests in New Orleans and Denver.

The Lakers and Pelicans both put up strong efforts, but both teams were unable to stave off elimination. Jamal Murray hit his second game-winner for the Nuggets, while the Thunder got big fourth quarters from Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey to pull away late.

Elsewhere, the Celtics continued to prove why they’re the best team in the NBA. They cruised to another comfortable victory in Game 4 vs. the Heat, giving them a 3-1 series lead heading back to Boston.

Kristaps Porzingis exited with a scary-looking calf injury, but the early reports suggest that he avoided disaster. Derrick White was able to pick up the slack in his absence, knocking down eight 3-pointers en route to 38 points.

What does Tuesday have in store for us? We have two more potential elimination games on the docket, with the Knicks and Pacers both looking to punch their ticket to the second round. The Magic and Cavaliers will also square off in a crucial Game 5, with the winner taking a 3-2 series edge.

Let’s dive into a few of my NBA best bets for Tuesday’s contests.

NBA Bets Today – Top Picks for April 30

Pacers (-4.0) at Bucks (-110; Caesars)

It’s sad that the Bucks’ season has come down to this. They probably weren’t going to contend for the Eastern Conference crown regardless, but losing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard to injury has all but sealed their fate.

Both players are listed as doubtful for Game 5, and while doubtful players will occasionally suit up during the postseason, it seems unlikely that either will be available for this matchup.

The team played just 647 minutes with both players off the floor this season, and unsurprisingly, those minutes did not go well.

The Bucks were outscored by -9.4 points per 100 possessions in that sample, and they were just 1-8 in nine contests without Lillard. They managed a bit better record in games without Giannis (4-5), but asking the rest of the team to overcome the absence of their two best players is too much in the postseason.

The Pacers rolled to a comfortable 13-point victory in Game 4, and while this game will be played in Milwaukee, I’m not sure it will make any difference. They’re simply the better team, and the banged-up Bucks might be ready for their season to be over.

76ers (+4.5) at Knicks (-110; DraftKings)

The Knicks are up 3-1 in this series, but all four games have been highly competitive. It could very easily be 3-1 in Philly’s favor, and at worst, it should be tied 2-2. The 76ers’ late-game collapse in Game 2 – with the help of the officials – likely means that they’re not getting past the Knicks in this series. Still, I think they’ve got some fight left in them.

Joel Embiid has looked hobbled at times, but the team has still been really effective with him on the floor. They’re +34 in this series with Embiid on the court, and he played all but four minutes in Game 1. The 76ers were +1 in Embiid’s 44 minutes in that contest, but they were -6 when he sat.

Maybe Embiid is too banged up to dominate for nearly 48 minutes, but expect to see another heavy workload on Tuesday. He and Tyrese Maxey should also be more efficient than they were in Game 4, when the duo shot a combined 15-40 from the field.

Ultimately, the Knicks are probably going to win this series, but I’m still not convinced they’re the better team. I’m playing the +4.5, and if they win Game 5 in New York, this series could get scary. The 76ers will be favored in Game 6 in Philly, so if you like the 76ers to cover on Tuesday, getting some exposure to them to win the series at around +650 makes some sense.

More Bets for Thursday's NBA Playoff Games

Magic vs. Cavaliers Over 201.5 points (-110)

This series has been wild. The Cavaliers dominated the first two games in Cleveland, but the Magic responded with two convincing wins in Orlando. The series shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5, and the sharps appear to like the Magic getting five points. However, I’d rather just play the over on 201.5 points.

That’s a really low number for an NBA contest, and these teams haven’t played as slow as expected in this series. This has actually been the fourth-fastest series out of the eight first-round matchups, so I think they can get to 202 points on Tuesday.

Kelly Oubre Over 4.5 rebounds (+100)

The 76ers have had the same problem for years now – who do trust around Embiid? Oubre has emerged as one of their most trusted wing players in the postseason. He gives the team some scoring and perimeter shooting, and he’s played at least 38 minutes in three of the first four games.

The 76ers have gotten crushed on the glass in this series, so guys like Oubre are going to have to do a better job in that department. It’s no surprise that the one game that the 76ers won was the one where Oubre had seven boards. He averaged 6.0 rebounds per 36 minutes during the regular season, so I think this number is a bit too low.

Bobby Portis Over 1.5 3-pointers (+140)

Portis was ejected after half a quarter in Game 4, but he’ll be back in the lineup in Game 5. Mayor Bobby has typically been one of the biggest winners from a usage perspective with Giannis and Lillard off the floor, so he should see a heavy workload in this spot.

He isn’t a volume 3-point shooter, but he’s effective when he ventures beyond the arc. He knocked down more than 40% of his 3-point attempts this season, and he could let it fly a bit more given the team’s injury situation. Two 3-pointers seem within the realm of possibility, so I’ll take a flyer at +140.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 4-1 (+1.425 units)
Playoffs: 15-14 (+0.0 units)