NBA Bets for May 1 - Top Picks for Wednesday's NBA Playoff Games

We had another excellent night of basketball on Tuesday. The first two contests both went down to the wire.

The Knicks looked like they had things wrapped up vs. the 76ers, but seven quick points from Tyrese Maxey managed to send things to overtime. The 76ers managed to secure the upset in the extra frame, and with the series headed to Philly for Game 6, this one suddenly has the chance to go the distance.

The Cavaliers and Magic also had their hardest-fought game of the series. With things tied at two games apiece, the Cavs managed to hold serve in Cleveland by squeaking out a one-point victory. They’ll look to close things out in Orlando on Friday, but the Magic cruised to two comfortable victories at home in the first two games of this series.

The nightcap wasn’t quite as competitive, but the Bucks showed their championship pedigree in a win vs. the Pacers.

They were playing without their two best players, but they managed to upset the Pacers behind big games from Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Patrick Beverley.

With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard both nearing a return to the lineup, can the Bucks manage to claw back in this series after being left for dead?

Let’s hope that Wednesday can live up to the past two nights. We have two games on the schedule, including a potential closeout game for the Celtics. Let’s dive into some of my NBA best bets for the slate.

Best NBA Bets for May 1st

Heat (+14.0) at Celtics (-110, FanDuel)

After the Celtics dropped Game 2 in Boston, they’ve appeared to buckle down and regain a stranglehold on this series. They thumped the Heat in Game 3, with their defense smothering Miami and limiting them to just 84 points.

Miami managed just 88 points in Game 4, but it wasn’t exactly the same story. The Heat had some open looks in that contest; they just couldn’t make any of them. They were merely 5-16 on “open” 3-pointers (31.3%), and they were just 2-11 on “wide-open” 3-point attempts (18.2%).

The Heat were the second-best shooting team on “wide-open” 3-pointers during the regular season (41.3%), so I would not expect another shooting performance of that caliber.

Additionally, the Celtics are going to be without Kristaps Porzingis in this matchup. Porzingis is not the Celtics’ best player, but he’s one of their most important. They’ve been at their best defensively with Porzingis anchoring the middle, and he allows them to maintain their elite spacing on offense. Without him, they’ll have to lean a bit more on Al Horford, who is not the same caliber of player at this point in his career.

The Celtics should still be able to get the job done in Game 5 – especially with the series back in Boston – but this game should be closer than Game 4. I’ll take the points with Miami.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Under 209.0 (-110; FanDuel)

This has been the most bizarre series of the first round. The Clippers have gone 2-0 without Kawhi Leonard and 0-2 with him. The Mavericks managed to erase a 31-point deficit in Game 4, but the Clippers managed to pull out a close victory in the end.

With the series now knotted at two games apiece, whoever wins Wednesday’s Game 5 will become a sizable favorite to win the series.

I’ve struggled to separate these teams all series, so I’m staying away from a side on Wednesday. Instead, I’m going to look at the total. The sharps have declared an interest in the under, driving this number down from 211.5 to as low as 208.5 at some locations. The first three games in this series went under 209 points before a 227-point eruption in Game 4.

The Mavericks are known more for their offense than their defense, but both of these defenses have been impressive in this series. The Clippers are merely eighth in offensive efficiency during the postseason, while the Mavericks are down in 11th. This series has also played at the third-slowest pace in the postseason, beating only classic Eastern Conference slugfests in Celtics-Heat and Knicks-76ers.

Add it all up, and I think another under is in the cards for Wednesday.

More Bets for Wednesday's NBA Playoff Games

Terance Mann Over 4.5 rebounds (+130)

With Leonard still sidelined, Mann is going to have to play a big role for the Clippers on Wednesday. He’s played 38.8 and 34.9 minutes in the two games without Kawhi this series, and he’s responded with 12 total rebounds in those contests. For the season, Mann has averaged 4.9 rebounds per 36 minutes, and in games with at least 30 minutes of playing time, Mann has averaged 4.8 boards.

The over on Mann’s rebounding prop is set at 3.5 (-140) on FanDuel, and that’s the safer option in this matchup. That said, I can’t resist the potential upside on Over 4.5 at +130.

Norman Powell Over 11.5 points (-118)

Let’s stick with the Clippers in the prop market. Like Mann, Powell is going to have to help pick up the slack with Kawhi out of the lineup.

Powell has seen his workload increase as the series has progressed. He played less than 30 minutes in the first two contests – including just 25.9 minutes in Game 2 – but he topped 32 minutes in Game 4. Powell erupted for 21 points in Game 3, and he had 11 points on just eight shots in his most recent contest.

The Paydirt DFS simulations are also bullish on Powell. They have him going over 11.5 points in 72.74%, with a median outcome of closer to 13.5.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.55 units)
Playoffs: 17-17 (-0.55 units)