NBA Bets for May 13 - Best Bets for Monday's NBA Playoff Games

Sunday was a big day in the NBA. The Pacers and Nuggets both managed to win their respective contests, pushing both of their series to two games apiece. The Pacers will now head to New York for Game 5, while the Nuggets will return to their home court in Denver.

When looking at best bets for Monday's NBA playoff games, the slate offers up two additional Game 4s.

The first features the Celtics and Cavaliers. Cleveland managed to pull off an upset on the road in Game 2, but they dropped Game 3 back in Cleveland by double figures. Can they pull off another stunner to tie things up before heading back to Boston?

The other series has been more competitive. The Mavericks have grabbed a 2-1 lead over the Thunder, and they’ll have a chance to put the top seed in the West on the ropes with another win. However, there are questions surrounding the health of Luka Doncic.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Monday’s slate.

Best Bet for Monday's NBA Playoff Games

Thunder ML at Mavericks (+102; FanDuel)

I picked the Mavericks to win at the start of the series, so it certainly doesn’t surprise me that they’re up 2-1. However, how they’ve gotten to 2-1 is a bit unexpected. Luka Doncic has bounced back after an awful Game 1, but he still hasn’t quite been Luka Doncic. He’s averaged just 25.5 points per game in Games 2 and 3, albeit with 12.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists per contest.

Instead, it has been the unreal shooting numbers for P.J. Washington that have led Dallas to victory. He was 7-11 from 3-point range in Game 2, and he followed that up with five more 3-pointers in Game 3. Washington was just a 32.0% 3-point shooter during the regular season, so that doesn’t feel like a sustainable formula.

The Thunder were also beat up on the boards in Game 3. They actually had a better eFG% than Dallas – 53.1% vs. 48.9% – but the Mavericks had 15 offensive boards. OKC hasn’t been a great rebounding team this season, but neither has Dallas: both teams rank outside the top 25 in team rebound rate. I would expect a more concerted effort from the Thunder on the glass in Game 3.

Ultimately, this feels like a strong buy-low spot for the Thunder. The sharps have already pushed this line down from +2.5 to +1.5, so there’s not quite as much value with the number. At this point, I’d rather grab the moneyline at +102.

More Bets for Monday's NBA Playoff Games

Celtics -8.0 at Cavaliers (-110)

The Celtics have dropped two games this postseason, but both have come in Boston. That’s not exactly a new development. They’re just 14-14 at home over the past three years during the playoffs, but they’re 17-7 on the road.

The Celtics just seem to be a bit more focused when playing outside of Boston, and when they play their best game, no one in the East can hang with them. I expect another comfortable win in Game 4.

Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds (+110)

If the Thunder are going to improve on the boards in Game 4, it all starts with Holmgren. He’s not a traditional center at less than 200 lbs, but he’s still 7’1”. He’s basically the only true big man in OKC’s rotation, so he’s going to have to lead the way on the glass.

Holmgren has yet to crack eight rebounds in this series, but he did average 9.7 rebounds per 36 minutes during the regular season. He should see close to 36 minutes in Game 4, so I think this number provides a bit of value at +110. The Paydirt DFS simulations have Holmgren going over 8.5 boards nearly 60% of the time, with a mean expectation of closer to 9.0.

Donovan Mitchell Under 29.5 points (-102)

Mitchell has been incredible during this series, scoring 33, 29, and 33 points through the first three games. That said, he’s run hot as a shooter. He’s knocked down 51.5% of his field goal attempts and 53.3% of his 3-pointers, and both of those numbers seem due for regression.

The Celtics were No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, so they are far from an easy matchup. It’s another reason why I expect the Celtics to take care of business in Game 4.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Friday: 0-4 (-2.24 units)
Futures: 3-2 w/ three pending (+0.25)
Playoffs: 27-27 (-3.17 units)