NBA Bets for May 14: Best Bets for Tuesday's NBA Playoff Games

We were so close to perfection yesterday. We got a solid chunk of closing line value with the Cavaliers ruling out Donovan Mitchell, and the C’s were up nine before Caris LeVert hit a meaningless jumper to cover the number. Still, the Celtics are up 3-1 with the series headed back to Boston, so our -2.5 games pick for that series looks alive and well.

Monday’s other contest featured the Thunder and Mavericks, with Dallas looking to take a 3-1 lead on their home court. They jumped out to an early lead, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was able to propel the Thunder to a victory late. With Luka Doncic clearly hobbled and the series shifting back to OKC, the Thunder appear to be in the driver’s seat.

Tuesday is set up to be a fantastic night of basketball when we look for our best bets for Tuesday's NBA playoff games.

We have two crucial Game 5s, with the Knicks hosting the Pacers and the Nuggets hosting the Timberwolves. Both of those series are tied at two games apiece, and history says that whoever wins Game 5 has a really strong chance of winning the series.

Let’s dive into my favorite betting options for Tuesday’s slate.

Best Bets for Tuesday’s NBA Playoff Games

Knicks -1.5 vs. Pacers (-105; BetMGM)

If there has been one takeaway from Round 2 of the playoffs, it’s that you shouldn’t overreact to a loss or two. The media buried the Nuggets after they fell in a two-game hole vs. the Timberwolves, only for Denver to bounce back with two straight road wins. The Pacers were written off after dropping the first two games vs. the Knicks, but they’re now just two-point underdogs in Game 5.

If anything, the prevailing sentiment appears to be that this is the Pacers’ series to lose. The Knicks are dealing with a bunch of injuries, and OG Anunoby will not return to the lineup in Game 5. After a 32-point victory on Mother's Day, the Pacers appear to have all the momentum.

Indiana has unsurprisingly gotten most of the public betting action in this contest, which makes it the perfect time to back the Knicks. They’re coming off a disastrous performance, but it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Tom Thibodeau was forced to rest his starters down the stretch, so guys like Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Josh Hart should be as fresh as they’ve been all playoffs.

The Knicks are also going to shoot better in this contest than they did in Game 4. They were just 18.9% from 3-point range as a team, with DiVincenzo, Brunson, and Miles McBride shooting a combined 4-22 from distance.

This spread was closer to six points in the first two games in New York, and while the injury to Anunoby is worth a couple of points on the spread, this number has still moved a bit in the Pacers’ direction. Even at less than 100%, I’m expecting to see the Knicks’ best effort on Tuesday.

More Bets for Tuesday's NBA Playoff Games

Timberwolves +4.5 at Nuggets (-110)

The Nuggets showed their championship pedigree in Minnesota, racking up two straight road victories to tie this series up at two. However, the Timberwolves starters played well enough to win in Game 4. Specifically, the Timberwolves were +5 points in Anthony Edwards’ 45.3 minutes. That means in the roughly 2.7 minutes that he sat, the Timberwolves were outscored by 13 points. Don’t expect that kind of discrepancy again on Tuesday.

I’m also not expecting Karl-Anthony Towns to shoot 5-18 from the field again. He’s one of the most efficient shooters in basketball – he had 50/42/87 shooting splits during the regular season – so he should put together a much stronger performance. Just like with the Knicks, this feels like a strong buy-low opportunity.

Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 3-pointers (-155)

DiVincenzo is coming off just one 3-pointer in his last contest, but that stands out as a massive outlier. He knocked down at least five 3-pointers in his previous four contests, and he’s shot just under 43% from 3-point range during the postseason.

In what is essentially a must-win game for the Knicks, DiVincenzo should flirt with 48 minutes under Tom Thibodeau. He does nearly all of his damage from behind the arc, so double-digit attempts are a possibility. That’s particularly true with Brunson operating at less than 100%.

I’m a big fan of Over 3.5 3-pointers at -155, and running the ladder with some of his alternate props is a strong option as well.

Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 rebounds + assists (+110)

McDaniels hasn’t been particularly active in the peripheral categories of late, racking up three rebounds + assists in back-to-back games. That said, he did eclipse this number in the first two games of the series, and he’s playing plenty of minutes when he can stay out of foul trouble.

He logged at least 37.6 minutes in Games 1 and 4, and he averaged 5.5 rebounds + assists per 36 minutes during the regular season. As long as he’s on the court that much in Game 5, I like his chances of eclipsing this minimal number.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-1 (+0.5 units)
Futures: 3-2 w/ three pending (+0.25)
Playoffs: 29-32 (-2.67 units)