NBA Bets for May 2 - Top NBA Playoff Picks for Thursday

After two excellent nights of playoff basketball… Wednesday was a bit of a clunker. The Celtics managed to finish off a “gentlemen’s sweep” of the Heat, while the Mavericks steamrolled the Clippers in Los Angeles. They now hold a 3-2 series edge and will look to close things out on their home court on Friday.

We have two more games on tap for Thursday. Things get started with the Bucks vs. the Pacers after Milwaukee managed to stave off elimination in Game 5. However, with the series back in Indiana, the Pacers are comfortable favorites in Game 6.

The nightcap features two teams that have given us one hell of a series – the Knicks and the 76ers. Philly will play host in Game 6, and they still have their backs against the wall. Can they pull off another victory and force a decisive Game 7 back in New York?

Let’s dive into my NBA best bets for Thursday’s slate.

NBA Playoff Bets for May 2

76ers -3.0 vs. Knicks (-110; Caesars)

I’ve been a firm believer in Philadelphia all series. I think they’re clearly the better team if Joel Embiid is at 100%, and while that’s definitely not the case, they’ve still been the better team for most of this series.

Embiid has worn down in the fourth quarter recently, but the team has been dominant with him on the floor. They were +14 in Embiid’s minutes in Game 5, and they’re now +48 in that split for the series. The team is pushing Embiid for close to 44 minutes per game at this point, and while that’s a struggle for him down the stretch, it’s clearly better than the alternative.

The Knicks have also gotten virtually no scoring production of late from their role players. Donte DiVincenzo is just 3-17 from 3-point range over the past three games, while Josh Hart has gone 1-9 from 3-point range over the past two. Role players typically play better at home than on the road during the playoffs, so I’m not expecting a ton of progression on Thursday.

If the Knicks are going to close things out in Philly, it’s going to have to be on the back of a monster Jalen Brunson performance. While that’s certainly possible, I’ll take my chances with Embiid and the red-hot Tyrese Maxey.

Bucks vs. Pacers Under 214.0 (-110; FanDuel)

Never count out the former champs. Things were looking grim for the Bucks in Game 5. They were playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, and they were moderate underdogs on their home court. However, they showed their championship pedigree, with Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and even Patrick Beverley all putting together big games.

The question is – can they do it again?

Giannis and Lillard are both uncertain for Game 6, so it seems unlikely that both stars will return to the lineup, let alone the potential for one. Perhaps the Bucks can keep it close without them, but I’m looking toward the under.

Without their two best players, the Bucks slowed things down to a crawl in Game 5. That game finished with an 89.0 Pace, making it the slowest game of the series so far. Milwaukee was hyper-efficient on offense, averaging more than 130 points per 100 possessions, yet the game still finished with just 207 total points.

I’m not expecting another 92-point performance from the Pacers on Thursday, but Milwaukee will likely be less efficient on their end. If this game is played at a similar pace to Game 5, they’re going to struggle to hit the over on 214.0.

More Bets for Thursday's NBA Playoff Games

Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 assists (-108)

Siakam is coming off just two dimes in his last outing, but that’s not all that surprising with the Pacers managing just 92 points. He had at least four assists in each of his three previous contests, and he was credited with seven potential assists in Game 5. If his teammates shoot the ball a bit better on Thursday, Siakam should be able to get back to 4+ assists.

This prop is available at -108 on DraftKings, but it’s as high as -128 at other locations. Lock it in while you still can.

Kelly Oubre Over 6.5 rebounds + assists (+110)

We just barely missed out on Oubre’s rebound over in Game 5, but I’m going back to the well in Game 6. I’m approaching it slightly differently, opting for the rebound + assists prop instead of straight rebounds.

The premise of the play is simple: Oubre is on the floor a lot for the 76ers. He’s emerged as one of their most trusted wing players, and he’s played at least 38 minutes in four of the first five games. That hasn’t resulted in a ton of production, but Oubre averaged 7.8 rebounds + assists per 36 minutes during the regular season. If he continues to see that much playing time, I’m expecting better production moving forward.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.05 units)
Playoffs: 19-19 (-0.50 units)