NBA Bets for May 21 - Best Bets for Celtics vs. Pacers Game 1

And then there were four. We’ve officially reached the conference finals in the NBA postseason, and it’s safe to say that things did not go entirely as planned

The Eastern Conference Finals tip-off on Tuesday, while the West will take center stage on Wednesday. Before we dive into my best bets for Pacers vs. Celtics Game 1, let's review how we (somewhat unexpectedly) got here.

Very few expected the Timberwolves and Mavericks to make it to the Western Conference finals before the start of the postseason, and no one expected the Pacers to be one of the last two teams standing in the East. A combination of injuries and disappointing performances opened the door for those squads, and they were ultimately able to take advantage.

Then, there is the mighty Boston Celtics. They put together another dominant regular season, and they’ve been able to make it back to yet another Eastern Conference Finals. This is their sixth trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in the past eight seasons, including the fifth trip for their tandem of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

They’ve only made it to one NBA Finals – which they eventually lost – but this year has felt different from the beginning, so let's dive in.

Best Bets for Celtics vs. Pacers Game 1

Celtics (-10.0) vs. Indiana Pacers (-110; DraftKings)

I’m not sure why the general public hates this Celtics team so much. Maybe it’s because they’ve felt like they’ve been “anointed” for the past half-decade. Maybe it’s because the Boston fans can be a little obnoxious. Maybe they’re still salty about how they fleeced the Brooklyn Nets in the trade market.

Regardless, most people want to see the Celtics choke, and that is reflected in the betting numbers. The Pacers have received 61% of the spread bets in this matchup (per the Action Network), but the sharp money is siding with Boston. This number is up to -10.5 at some locations, and it wouldn’t shock me if this closed a little higher.

On paper, the Celtics should flatten the Pacers. These were the two best offensive teams in basketball during the regular season, but the Celtics are worlds better on defense. Boston was No. 2 in defensive efficiency – trailing only the Timberwolves – while the Pacers were No. 24. The Pacers are not going to simply be able to outscore their opponents like they have in the first two rounds of the postseason; they’re going to have to play some defense too.

The Celtics are also going to have a significant rest advantage in Game 1. They last played on Wednesday, so they’ve had significant time off before this matchup. Meanwhile, the Pacers are coming off a grueling seven-game series, with Game 7 being played on Sunday. They had to survive two elimination games to make it to this point, which can take a serious mental and physical toll. I like the Celtics’ chances of starting hot.

Series Spread: Celtics -2.5 games (-144; FanDuel)

I’m going to start calling this bet ol’ reliable. I’ve successfully ridden the Celtics -2.5 games in the first two rounds of the postseason, and I see no reason to stop now. They’re the best team in basketball, and the Pacers aren’t the team to slow them down.

The Pacers have had a pretty easy road just to get to this point. They got to face the Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo, while the Knicks were burnt out by the end of the second round. This series will represent a significant step up in weight class, and I don’t think they’re ready for it. Even without Kristaps Porzingis for at least the first two games, the Celtics are simply too talented.

Boston is going to be favored in every game in this series, barring an unexpected injury. They’re going to be favored by double-digits in Boston. The Celtics are known to occasionally take their foot off the gas, and the Pacers can certainly have a hot shooting night. That should keep this series from being a sweep. However, we’ve seen the Celtics lose Game 2 in each of their first two series, only to bounce back with three consecutive wins. It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where the Pacers win more than one game.

More Bets for Celtics vs. Pacers Game 1

Derrick White Most 3-pointers in Series (+175)

Tyrese Haliburton is the favorite in this market (-120; DraftKings), but I think that’s a mistake. Haliburton got super hot from behind the arc vs. the Knicks, but he’s not what I would call an elite 3-point shooter. He shot just 36.4% from 3-point range during the regular season, and he averaged less than three made 3-pointers per game.

On the other hand, White has become one of the most deadly 3-point shooters in the league. He knocked down 39.6% of his triples during the regular season, and he’s up to 43.5% during the postseason.

From a matchup perspective, the Celtics have the edge. The Celtics allowed the fourth-lowest opponent 3-point percentage during the regular season, while Indiana was No. 16.

Ultimately, Haliburton feels overpriced in this market, which is creating some value with the other options. White seems like the most likely candidate at +175, but you can look even further down the board if you’d like.

Tyrese Haliburton Under 3.5 3-pointers (-115)

I’m doubling down here. Haliburton knocked down at least four 3-pointers in four of the final six games vs. the Knicks, but those performances stand out as outliers. The Knicks’ defense doesn’t contest 3-pointers the same way that the Celtics do – New York was No. 21 in opponent 3-point percentage – so it was a good matchup for Haliburton to get hot.

Jrue Holiday remains one of the best defensive point guards in basketball, and he’s going to treat Haliburton as a focus. The Celtics know that if they can slow down the Pacers’ star point guard, there’s not much that Indiana can do to compete. Expect them to take the assignment very seriously.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Friday: 2-1 (+0.5 units)
Futures: 6-2 w/ two pending (+1.75 units)
Playoffs: 38-37 (-0.25 units excluding futures)