NBA Bets for May 22 - Best Bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 1

Well, that’s one way to start the penultimate round of the NBA playoffs.

The Pacers were massive underdogs against the Celtics – in the series and in Game 1 – but they appeared to have them on the ropes. They were up three with the ball and less than 10 seconds left on the clock, so all they needed to do was avoid shooting themselves in the foot.

We all know what happens next. A turnover on the inbounds play followed by a Jaylen Brown 3-pointer ultimately leads to a Celtics’ win. They say there’s some magic in the Boston Garden, and it certainly felt like it on Tuesday.

The focus shifts to the Western Conference on Wednesday with our best bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 1.

The T’Wolves had to get through two really tough matchups to get here, knocking off Kevin Durant and the Suns in the first round and the defending champs in the second. The Mavericks haven’t had a walk in the park either, getting past the Clippers and Thunder.

Which of these teams can punch their ticket to the Finals, and who has the edge in Game 1? Let’s dive in.

Best Bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 1

Mavericks +4.5 at Timberwolves (-110; BetMGM)

The Timberwolves have become everyone’s favorite team during the playoffs. Anthony Edwards is either Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant depending on the day, and they play defense better than anyone. After beating the Nuggets, most people seem to think that they’re just going to cruise past the Mavericks. They’ve received 77% of the spread bets for Game 1 (per the Action Network), and they’re solid favorites to win the series overall.

Personally, I think the Mavericks are being disrespected. They have two of the best offensive players in the game, with Luka Doncic arguably the best overall. Shutting down this duo is not going to be a walk in the park, even for the Timberwolves’ elite defense. As we saw on Tuesday with the Pacers – who racked up 128 points vs. the Celtics’ No. 2 defense – a good offense can overcome a tough matchup.

The Mavericks look like a particularly strong betting option in Game 1. Historically, teams that are coming off a Game 7 win are prime fade targets in the next round. They’re just 17-30-1 ATS against teams that did not play a Game 7 in the previous series over the past 20 years. The Pacers managed to buck that trend on Tuesday, but they were double-digit underdogs; the Timberwolves are favored.

The sharps also appear to like the Mavs in this spot, so I’m happy to grab 4.5 points. I don’t mind a sprinkle on the moneyline, either (+164; FanDuel).

Mavericks-Timberwolves Over 5.5 Games (-160; DraftKings)

I discussed this wager with Matthew Freedman on the Betting Life Podcast. -160 may feel like a lot of juice, but I think it still represents an outstanding value.

Ultimately, for the series to go less than six games, one of the following two things needs to happen: The Timberwolves win less than two games, or the Mavericks win less than two games. The odds of the Timberwolves losing four of the first five games feel slim to none, so the bigger question is can the Mavericks win two?

I think that’s very doable. Stealing Game 1 on the road would certainly help, but they’ll also have two chances at home in Games 3 and 4. The fact that the Timberwolves are just 4.5-point favorites in Minnesota suggests that the oddsmakers don’t see a huge discrepancy between these two squads.

Ultimately, -160 translates to an implied probability of just 61.54%. Personally, I think the odds of this series going six-plus games are closer to 75%. That’s more than enough room to justify a play on the over.

More Bets for Timberwolves-Mavericks Game 1

Dereck Lively Over 7.5 points (+100)

Lively is a rookie, but the Mavericks would not have made it past the Thunder without him. He gave them some huge minutes in that series, and his work on the glass was instrumental in their Game 6 victory.

Lively is still splitting the center minutes with Daniel Gafford, and while Gafford remains the starter, Lively is getting more of the playing time. He’s racked up at least 25.2 minutes in three of the past four games, including 29.5 minutes in the decisive Game 6. Unsurprisingly, Gafford has gone over 7.5 points in each of those contests.

The Mavericks are going to need Lively’s size against the Timberwolves’ trio of big men. Minnesota was one of the best rebounding teams in basketball during the regular season, and Lively leads the team in rebound rate during the postseason. Expect to see another healthy dose of playing time off the bench, which should lead to over 7.5 points.

Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 1.5 3-pointers (-198)

Hardaway has shot the ball well during the postseason, but he’s just not getting enough playing time at the moment. His minutes decreased throughout the series vs. the Thunder, culminating in just 5.8 minutes in Game 6. He also didn’t see the court in the final four games vs. the Clippers, so his spot in the rotation is far from a lock.

Ultimately, Hardaway should see the court in Game 1, but I’m not expecting more than a handful of minutes. That makes fading his 3-point prop extremely appealing. Hardaway is going to have to be extremely efficient to drill two 3-pointers if he only sees around 10 minutes of action. I’ll take my chances with that kind of prop 10 times out of 10.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 0-2 (-1.125 units)
Futures: 6-2 w/ three pending (+1.75 units)
Playoffs: 38-39 (-1.375 units excluding futures)