NBA Bets for May 27 - Best Bets for Pacers vs. Celtics Game 4

What a series this could’ve been for the Pacers. No one gave them a chance against the Celtics, but they could very easily be up 2-1 after three games. They choked away what looked like a surefire victory in Game 1, and they blew an 18-point second-half lead in Game 3. Instead of looking to take a commanding lead on their homecourt in Game 4, the team is simply looking to fight off elimination.

That is going to be easier said than done. Facing the Celtics is difficult in any situation, but the Pacers could be without their best player for the second straight game. Tyrese Haliburton is officially listed as questionable for Game 4, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the team opts to play it safe with their star player.

Let’s dive into some of my best bets for Pacers vs. Celtics Game 4.

Best Bets for Pacers vs. Celtics Game 4

Celtics -7.5 at Pacers (Caesars; -105)

With the Pacers currently staring an 0-3 deficit in the face and with their best player banged up, I’m not sure how they can muster up the motivation to compete in Game 4. Even if they can pull out a win, they’re merely delaying the inevitable. Instead of traveling back to Boston for Game 5, isn’t it just easier to get things done now?

Since 2005, teams that fall into an 0-3 hole in the postseason are just 34-43-4 ATS in Game 4. Motivation plays an immense role in basketball, and it’s simply hard to perform at your best when you feel the series is already decided.

I’m of the belief that Haliburton will not suit up in this contest. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski previously reported that the Pacers were going to err on the side of caution. This is the same injury that cost Haliburton a chunk of playing time early in the year, and there’s no reason for the Pacers to rush him back.

The team was able to muster up a competitive effort without Haliburton in Game 3, but after another loss, it’s going to be significantly tougher to do so again in Game 4. The Pacers’ Net Rating decreased by -6.7 points per 100 possessions with Haliburton off the court during the regular season – the top mark on the team – so competing without him on a nightly basis would have a significant impact on the squad.

Quite simply, the talent disparity between these two teams is too much to overcome. Even without Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics are arguably the best team in basketball. Without Haliburton, the Pacers would struggle to make the Play-In Tournament. I’m not overthinking this one.

More Bets for Pacers-Celtics Game 4

T.J. McConnell Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-108)

The uncertainty surrounding Haliburton does create a bit of value in the player prop market. Guys like McConnell and Andrew Nembhard are currently priced a bit cheaper than they would be if we knew Haliburton was out for certain.

McConnell remained a reserve player in Game 3, but he handled a starter-like workload off the bench. He played just under 30 minutes and posted a 28.5% usage rate, 33.0% assist rate, and 18.6% rebound rate. Unsurprisingly, McConnell responded with 38 points + rebounds + assists.

McConnell taking advantage of an expanded workload is nothing new. He’s a legend in the DFS community because he’s known for racking up stats when thrust into the starting lineup.

I’m willing to roll the dice on Haliburton being out of the lineup once again, and as long as that happens, McConnell should be able to cruise past this number for the second straight game.

Sam Hauser Over 3.5 points (+102)

Hauser has pretty much been a non-factor during this series. He has just two total points through the first four games, and he’s shot 1-10 from the field and 0-9 from 3-point range.

I’m willing to bet on some positive shooting regression for Hauser in Game 4. Hauser routinely eclipsed 3.5 points in the Celtics’ first two playoff series, hitting the over in six of 10 games. He was even more reliable during the regular season, averaging 9.0 points per game. Hauser isn’t going to be asked to do as much during the playoffs, but with Porzingis sidelined, his role in the rotation is safe for now.

Additionally, Hauser could see a bit of extra run if this game isn’t competitive. He played more than 20 minutes in the Game 2 blowout, and something similar could be in the cards for Game 4. All he needs to do is remember how to shoot the basketball.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Friday: 2-1 (+0.45 units)
Futures: 6-2 w/ three pending (+1.75 units)
Playoffs: 45-41 (+1.05 units excluding futures)