NBA Bets for May 6

The first round of the NBA postseason officially came to a close on Sunday, with the Cavaliers securing a Game 7 victory over the Magic. That sets up a matchup for the Celtics in Round 2, with Boston slated as massive favorites.

Monday features two second-round matchups – Game 1 of Pacers-Knicks and Game 2 of Timberwolves-Nuggets. The Eastern Conference showdown will tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET, while the Western Conference affair will take place at 10 p.m. ET.

The Knicks are decent favorites to take care of business vs. the Pacers. After a grueling series vs. the 76ers, the Pacers should represent a step down in competition. That said, they were the No. 2 team in terms of offensive efficiency during the regular season. On nights when they’re hitting their shots, they have the potential to force some upsets.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves managed to upset the Nuggets in Denver in Game 1. Anthony Edwards put together a huge performance, while Nikola Jokic had an uncharacteristic performance. He shot just 11-25 from the field with seven turnovers, but can he and the Nuggets right the ship in Game 2?

Let’s dive into some of my NBA best bets for Monday’s slate.

Timberwolves +5.5 at Nuggets (-105; Caesars)

This has the potential to be an all-time playoff series. That’s how even these two teams are. The Timberwolves managed to steal Game 1 in Denver, but I think this series has the potential to go the distance.

So why back the Timberwolves in Game 2? Ultimately, whoever is the underdog in this series is likely going to get my attention. Giving the Timberwolves 5.5 points in Denver feels like too many, and the same figures to be true when the Nuggets are in Minnesota. Even if the Nuggets win tonight, I expect this game to come down to the wire.

Additionally, the Timberwolves simply match up well with the Nuggets. They have three legit seven-footers to throw at Jokic, and all of them had an impact in Game 1. Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid all provided value in different ways, and that trio has as good a chance as any to slow down the soon-to-be three-time MVP.

With Jamal Murray operating at less than 100%, the Timberwolves should continue to give the defending champs all they can handle.

Timberwolves to Advance (-125; Caesars)

I gave out my official pick in this series in Friday’s newsletter: Timberwolves +1.5 games at -128. That means that the Timberwolves cover if they win the series or lose in seven games. I ultimately decided that having the extra security was better than just taking the Timberwolves to win outright.

If you missed out on that selection, you can pivot to taking the Timberwolves to win the series at -125. Since they’ve already secured a Game 1 win, it answered one of the biggest questions going into this series: Can the Timberwolves win in Denver? The Nuggets have the best homecourt advantage in basketball, so stealing Game 1 officially puts the ball in Minnesota’s court. Even if they lose the remaining road games, they’ll still win the series if they can hold serve in Minnesota.

The Nuggets are still being priced like the better team – their NBA championship odds are lower than Minnesota’s – but that doesn’t feel warranted with the Game 1 loss. Minnesota was the better team during the regular season per Net Rating, and they have everything you look for in an NBA title squad. They combine the best defense in basketball with an alpha scorer, and with Murray injured, I think the Timberwolves have a good chance of pulling things out.

The Nuggets aren’t just going to roll over and die, but -125 to win the series is a solid number. You can also consider the Timberwolves in the futures market, particularly the +210 to win the Western Conference.

More Bets for Monday's NBA Playoff Games

Pacers-Knicks Under 217.5 (-108)

I’m very interested to see what kind of pace wins out in Game 1. The Pacers are known for playing fast, while the Knicks are a more grind-it-out type of squad. Whichever team is able to establish the pace in Game 1 is likely going to cover.

I lean towards the Knicks being that squad, but I’ll take the Under on 217.5 instead of laying the six points. There are lots of ways for playoff games to go under: poor shooting, slow pace, and nerves could all be a factor in Game 1. Neither of these teams is oozing with playoff experience, so the jump shooting could be a bit shaky.

Pascal Siakam Over 11.5 rebounds + assists (+110)

Siakam is the one Pacer who has seen this stage before. He was a part of the Raptors’ championship squad in 2018-19, and his experience has been vital to the Pacers in the postseason. He was their best player in the first round, averaging 22.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game vs. the Bucks.

The Knicks are a significantly tougher matchup, but Siakam has shown the ability to contribute as a passer and on the glass. I like the over at better than even money.

Jamal Murray Under 22.5 points (-118)

Murray was a star in last year’s postseason, but he has not been the same player in 2024. He shot just 40.0% from the field and 29.4% from 3-point range vs. the Lakers, and the Timberwolves are determined to make his life a living hell.

They have a bunch of different options to throw at him, with Edwards, Mike Conley, and Jaden McDaniels all proving effective in Game 1. He went scoreless in the first half – the first scoreless half of his playoff career – before bouncing back with 17 points in the second.

Murray was unable to practice between the end of the first round and the start of the second, so his calf injury remains a major question mark. Combining the injury uncertainty and the matchup is going to push me toward the under for most of this series.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Friday: 2-2 (+0.10 units)
Playoffs: 22-24 (-1.5 units)

NBA Bets for May 6 - Top NBA Playoff Picks for Monday