NBA Bets for May 7 - Top NBA Playoff Picks for Tuesday

Tuesday’s NBA action was not what most people expected.

The Knicks were given everything they could handle from the upstart Pacers, but they ultimately ended up securing a close victory. Still, if you were expecting that series to be a blowout, it might be a bit more difficult than you initially thought.

In the nightcap, the Nuggets were looking to avoid a dreaded 0-2 hole before the series shifted back to Minnesota. They closed as nearly eight-point favorites after Rudy Gobert was ruled out, so it seemed like the perfect spot for the Nuggets to get back in the series.

Instead, Minnesota dug their claws in deeper, securing a 26-point victory in Game 2. Teams with a 2-0 series lead have historically advanced 92.7% of the time, and only six teams have ever bounced from two straight home losses to start the series.

In other words – the fat lady is warming up her pipes for the Nuggets’ repeat championship hopes.

The other two second-round series will commence on Tuesday. Things get started with the Celtics hosting the Cavaliers, followed by the Mavericks at the Thunder. Let’s dive into some of my NBA Best Bets for those games and series.

Best NBA Bets for May 7th

Celtics (-12.0) vs. Cavaliers (-110; DraftKings)

Kristaps Porzingis remains out of the lineup for Game 1, but that shouldn’t be a huge issue in this series. The Celtics still have more than enough talent to breeze past Cleveland. The fact that Jarrett Allen (questionable; ribs) is banged up only mitigates his absence further.

Don’t let your memory of previous Celtics’ teams jade your opinions on this version. They’re the best that they’ve been in the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown era. They were first in Net Rating by a wide margin during the regular season, combining the No. 1 ranked offense with the No. 2 ranked defense. That dominance extended into the first round, with the Celtics posting a +17.0 Net Rating vs. the Heat.

The Cavaliers managed to survive vs. an inexperienced Magic squad, but they had a -4.9 Net Rating in that series. Orlando was arguably the better team – they led by as many as 18 points in Game 7 – but they were unable to get across the finish line. The Cavaliers were trounced in all three games in Orlando, and now they’ll have to go to a much more hostile environment in Boston.

I don’t expect this series to be very competitive, and I’m happy to lay 12 points in Game 1.

Celtics -2.5 games (-210; Caesars)

I initially hopped on this series prop at -170, but the odds have moved up to -210 on Caesars. This line is as high as -265 on FanDuel, so I still think this figure is playable.

The Celtics are a wagon, and no one in the East is going to be able to slow them down. They might occasionally drop a game – like Game 2 in the first round when Miami shot better than 55% from 3-point range – but it’s going to take some seriously bad variance for this team to lose two.

The -210 odds translate to an implied probability of 67.74%, and I think the true odds are at least 75%. Expect to see this same bet in the Eastern Conference Finals, hopefully at a better potential payout.

More Bets for Monday's NBA Playoff Games

Mavericks +3.5 at Thunder (-110) & Mavericks to win series (+105)

I’m trusting the Mavericks experience to get them over the hump in this series. The rule in the NBA is that you have to lose in the playoffs before you can win. It’s a tale as old as time. Even GOATs like Michael Jordan and LeBron James had to take their lumps before they were able to get over the hump.

No one in OKC’s rotation has seen this stage of the playoffs. They essentially had a first-round bye against a Pelicans squad without Zion Williamson, but the Mavericks will be a serious test.

They have two elite offensive players in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and their defense has been vastly improved. They were 19th in defensive efficiency before the All-Star break, but they jumped to 13th afterward. Their improvement continued in the first round of the playoffs, ranking sixth out of 16 squads.

I expect the Thunder to feel the nerves of the postseason in Game 1 of this series, and if the Mavericks can steal one in OKC, I like their chances of pulling off the upset.

Gordon Hayward Under 0.5 assists (+105)

These types of props are the worst kind of sweat because you’re never in the clear. All it takes is one assist for this prop to go belly up, so we’re never safe as long as Hayward is on the court.

Fortunately, I don’t expect him to see much playing time. He logged less than four minutes in Game 4 vs. the Pelicans, and that seems unlikely to change vs. the Mavs. If anything, the Thunder might shorten their rotation further.

Al Horford Over 7.5 rebounds (-108)

With Porzingis out of the lineup, Big Al is going to have to step up for Boston. He did that in Game 4 vs. the Heat, racking up eight boards in just under 34 minutes. He only had six boards in Game 5, but he played just 22.7 minutes in a blowout win. Horford should see closer to his Game 4 workload if this contest is competitive, and 7.5 rebounds is too low in that scenario. Even at an advanced age, Horford still averaged 8.5 rebounds per 36 minutes during the regular season.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.04 units)
Futures: 3-2 w/ 1 pending (+0.25)
Playoffs: 22-24 (-1.254 units)