NBA Christmas Day Betting Breakdown. Sides, Totals, Props, and more to bet.

The NBA is already more than a quarter of the way through the regular season, but for many fans, the NBA really doesn’t get started until Christmas.

It’s arguably the biggest day of the year for the NBA – bigger even than the NBA Finals – and we have another star-studded slate on tap this year.

Whether you’re a hardcore NBA fanatic or a casual bettor looking for a reason to avoid your in-laws, I’ve got something for you on this slate.

Let’s dive into all five games and the bets I’m looking to make for each contest.

Milwaukee Bucks (-3.0; FanDuel) at New York Knicks

Opening Line: Bucks -3.5
Opening Total: 224.5
Betting Splits: 80% of tickets on Bucks, 61% of dollars on Knicks

Bucks (22-7)

+5.5 Net Rating (fifth-best in NBA)
13-15-1 ATS; 5-5 ATS as road favorite
19-10 to the over (fourth-best in NBA)
Injury Report: Giannis Antetokounmpo (probable), Jae Crowder (out)

The Bucks look like a vastly different team compared to last year’s squad. They only really made one change, but it was a doozy, swapping defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday for the much more offensive-minded Damian Lillard.

The impact on the Bucks has been pronounced. They’re third in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging 120.5 points per 100 possessions, but they’re down to 20th in defensive efficiency. The Bucks have historically been a dominant defensive squad with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they’re much more potent offensively in 2023.

Dec 13, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) scores 64 points in the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers to set a team record for most points scored in a game at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of Giannis, he’s having a typical Greek Freak season, averaging 30.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game while shooting better than 60% from the field. He’s doing that despite seeing a usage drop of roughly -5.5% compared to last season, so he’s been hyper-efficient.

Lillard is second on the squad in scoring, averaging 26.6 points per game, and he’s knocking down an average of 3.3 3-pointers per game. His efficiency is slightly down from his peak, but he remains one of the league’s premier deep threats.

Complementing their big two is a rotation featuring a lot of the usual suspects for Milwaukee: Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton. Malik Beasley has also been a huge addition, giving them another potent threat from behind the 3-point line. He’s knocking down 45.0% of his 3-point attempts this season on 6.4 attempts per game, giving him an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 70.2%.

Knicks 16-12

+2.8 Net Rating (10th-best in NBA)
14-12-2 ATS; 5-5-1 ATS at home (0-1-1 as home underdog)
15-13 to the over (18th-best in NBA)
Injury Report: Mitchell Robinson (out), Jericho Sims (out)

While the Bucks made a significant change this offseason, the Knicks are running back basically the same squad as last year. That team was good enough to win 47 games, and they breezed past the Cavaliers in the first round of the postseason. Unfortunately, they were unable to do the same against the Heat, losing in six games.

The Knicks star duo of Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle isn’t nearly as imposing as Milwaukee’s, but it's been effective for most of the season.

Brunson is having the best year of his career, averaging 25.6 points per game while shooting 46.0% from 3-point range. For a team that has struggled to find a consistent answer at PG since Walt “Clyde” Frazier, Brunson has been a godsend.

Still, this team goes as the enigmatic Randle does. In the Knicks wins, Randle is averaging 23.5 points, 10.3 boards, 6.1 assists and shooting 50.6% from the field. In their losses, he’s averaging 21.4, 8.7, 4.1 and shooting 41.1%. He’s also averaging more minutes per game in the losses, so when he plays well, the team tends to follow.

R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are two other key players for this squad. Barrett has yet to blossom into the stud that everyone hoped he’d become, but he’s a solid rotation player. Quickley was a legit Sixth Man of the Year candidate last season and continues to provide an offensive spark off the bench.

The big question is what the team does at center with Robinson and Sims both sidelined? Isaiah Hartenstein should see most of the minutes, and that could actually be a positive for them. The team has posted a +7.0 Net Rating with Hartenstein on the floor this season, which is far better than the marks for Robinson (+2.7) and Sims (-5.0).

The offense in particular has thrived with Hartenstein on the floor (119.5 points per 100 possessions), but it remains to be seen if that continues with an expanded workload.

Best Bet: Over 241.0 (-110; Caesars)

Honestly, I was not expecting the total to re-open quite this high. The initial total for this game was listed at 224.5, so this is more than 15 points higher.

Still, I'm going to back on the over in this spot.

The Bucks have been an over machine all season, combining an elite offense with a declining defense. The Knicks are without their best defensive center in Robinson, and the offense has looked significantly better in Hartenstein’s 525 minutes.

These two squads combined for just 215 points in their first meeting this season, but that was back at the start of November. The Bucks were still going through some growing pains at that point, while the Knicks were without Barrett.

In their second meeting, these squads erupted for 268 total points, with the Bucks scoring 146 of them. Giannis had 35 points on 15-22 shooting, and New York really has no answer for his combination of size and athleticism. That’s true for most teams, but it’s particularly true for the Knicks without Robinson.

Finally, these two squads met on Saturday at MSG, and they combined for 241 points in that matchup. That was despite the Bucks turning the game into a blowout and Giannis and Lillard seeing reduced minutes in the fourth quarter.

These two squads are much more offensive-oriented than in previous years, so I'm fine with grabbing the over on this large number.

Top Prop: Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points (-109; Caesars)

I’m stealing this one from Joe Metz, who has played over 26.5 points for Brunson in our NBA Bet Tracker.

The thesis of this play is pretty simple: Brunson is having his best offensive season, and he draws a terrific individual matchup. Lillard is one of the worst defensive point guards in basketball, and Brunson has had his way with him so far this season. He’s averaged 35.0 points in his three previous games against the Bucks, posting a 35.6 while shooting 53.8% from the field. He hasn’t even shot the ball particularly well from downtown in those matchups (27.8%), so he has room for even more scoring upside on Christmas.

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets (-6.5; BetMGM)

Opening Line: Nuggets -4.5
Opening Total: 230.5
Betting Splits: 85% of the tickets, 92% of the dollars on Nuggets

Warriors (15-14)

+1.2 Net Rating (13th-best in NBA)
14-15 ATS; 6-3 ATS as road underdog
17-12 to the over (10th-best in NBA)
Injury Report: Draymond Green (out), Andrew Wiggins (questionable), Gary Payton II (out)

Is it officially the end of the Warriors dynasty?

It might be a bit too early to make the call, but the writing is definitely on the wall. That’s ultimately not that surprising: Steph Curry (35 years old), Klay Thompson (33), Chris Paul (38), and Green (33) are all on the backside of their careers.

The good news is Curry remains one of the league’s scariest covers on a night-to-night basis. He continues to light teams up from deep – 41.6% from 3-point range on 7.2 attempts per game – and he’s electric when driving to the rim as well. He’s averaging 28.2 points per game this season, and he’s vital to the team’s offensive success.

With Curry on the floor, the Warriors have averaged 117.9 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off the floor, that figure dips to 110.7.

The team brought in Paul to help with some of the non-Curry minutes this season, but that experiment is looking like a disaster.

CP3 is shooting just 39.6% from the field this season, and he’s an abysmal 31.4% from 3-point range. He needs the ball in his hands to be effective, and when Paul has the ball in his hands, it’s not in Curry’s. That’s a problem.

The big news for the Warriors recently is Green’s suspension. That will reportedly last at least three weeks, but the Warriors should really tell the NBA not to rush him back.

Green has been the Warriors' biggest liability this season.

The team is surrendering 119.4 points per 100 possessions with their “defensive specialist” on the floor, resulting in a -6.0 Net Rating. Without Green, they’re +3.1. Is it a coincidence that the team has won five of six games since Green got suspended? I don’t think so.

Jonathan Kuminga has started the past six games in place of Draymond, and he’s averaged 14.5 points per game on 61.1% shooting. He was instrumental in the team’s win over the Celtics on Tuesday, so in my eyes, more minutes for him can only be a good thing.

Nuggets (21-10)

+5.5 Net Rating (sixth-best in NBA)
14-16-1 ATS; 7-5-1 as home favorite
12-19 to the over (second-worst in NBA)
Key Absences: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (probable), Aaron Gordon (probable)

Last year’s defending champs are off to a solid start, racking up 18 wins through 28 games this season. They have a better Net Rating than they had during the regular season last year, and they appear poised for another deep postseason run.

The Nuggets are led by Nikola Jokic, who has become the unquestioned best player in basketball. He does things on the floor that most players only dream of, and he’s averaging another near triple-double with 26.4 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.4 assists per game.

Dec 20, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) goes up to make a basket as Toronto Raptors center Jakob Poeltl (19) defends during the first half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

However, Jokic has had one area where he has struggled this season – 3-point range. The Joker knocked down 38.3% of his triples last year, but he’s down to just 30.6% this season. He’s also been far less efficient from inside the arc, so his eFG% is way down compared to last year (56.8% vs. 66.0%).

Should any of this make you concerned? Not really.

He’s still first in the league in basically every advanced metric you can think of – Win Shares, Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Box Score Plus/Minus (BPM) – so he remains an absolute monster. Actually, the fact that the Nuggets have been this good without getting the A+ version of Jokic is a positive for them in the long run. Jokic is going to turn it around eventually, and when he does, this team could absolutely roll.

The Nuggets have done a phenomenal job of surrounding Jokic with elite perimeter players. Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, and Christian Braun are all shooting at least 38.0% from 3-point range, so they’re taking advantage of the spacing provided by their prodigious big man.

The four-man combo of Jokic, Murray, MPJ, and KCP has bludgeoned opponents this season, posting a Net Rating of +12.3 points per 100 possessions. With Aaron Gordon as the fifth member, the Net Rating remains a sparkling +10.8.

Murray has been limited to just 14 games due to injury this season, but he’s officially back in the fold now. With him at close to 100%, this remains arguably the best team in basketball.

Best Bet: Warriors +7.0 (-112; FanDuel)

As much as I’m bullish on the Nuggets long term, I think this is a decent spot to back the Warriors. Losing Green might be viewed as a negative by most casual fans, but I’m convinced it’s a positive. Their record without Green this season isn’t great at just 8-6, but they have won five straight.

Their six losses without Draymond have also come against the Suns (twice), Nuggets, Thunder (twice), and Clippers, and five of them have come by eight points or fewer. In other words, they’ve hung on against the best teams in the West without his services, and they’ve started rolling of late.

They already have a three-point loss in Denver sans Draymond this season, and I think they can keep things close on Christmas.

Top Prop: Jonathan Kuminga Over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-128; FanDuel)

I don’t believe the sportsbooks have fully adjusted for Kuminga’s new role with the Warriors. He’s a very active player when on the floor, and he’s seen a nice spike in minutes with Green on the sidelines. In addition to his 14.5 points per game, he’s added 5.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists since entering the starting lineup.

Overall, Kuminga has had at least 20 points + rebounds + assists in four of his past six games. The only exceptions were the two contests where he saw 20.9 and 18.8 minutes. He’s played at least 27.2 minutes in his past three outings, so I like his chances of going over this figure.

Boston Celtics (-2.5; Caesars) at Los Angeles Lakers

Opening Line: Celtics -1.5
Opening Total: 239.5
Betting Splits: 92% of tickets, 99% of dollars on Celtics

Celtics (22-6)

+10.1 Net Rating (second in NBA)
14-12-2 ATS; 3-8-2 as road favorite
15-13 to the over (12th-worst in NBA)
Key Absences: Kristaps Porzingis (questionable)

It’s put up or shut up time for the Celtics. They’ve had the talent to win the title for a few years now, but they’ve yet to get across the finish line. They stumbled against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals last season, and they lost in the Finals to the Warriors two years ago.

This year’s version of the Celtics is clearly the most talented. They added two huge pieces in the offseason in Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, swapping them in for Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and Robert Williams.

Porzingis is not the same defensive presence as Williams when healthy, but he’s the perfect fit for this squad. It allows them to keep a perimeter-oriented offense without sacrificing too much size on defense. It’s been a smashing success so far, with the Celtics posting a +9.7 Net Rating with the big man on the floor this season.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown remain the focal points of the offense, with the two combining for 49.3 points per game on 47.6% shooting. Porzingis and Derrick White are also averaging at least 16.0 points per game, so their scoring is pretty condensed. Overall, the Celtics are averaging the fewest bench points in the league this season at just 25.9 points per game.

That could be an issue for the Celtics if they suffer an injury, but their starting five is absolutely elite. That’s exactly what you’re looking for when you make it to the playoffs, so all the team really needs to do is stay healthy.

One thing to monitor heading into Christmas is the status of Porzingis. He missed the team's last contest with an ankle sprain, so he could be unavailable. The Celtics have more than enough talent to survive his absence, but it would still be a downgrade for the team overall.

Lakers (16-14)

-0.3 Net Rating (20th-best in NBA)
14-17 ATS; 5-5 as underdog (0-1 as home underdog)
15-16 to the over (eighth-worst in NBA)
Key Absences: Gabe Vincent (questionable)

Overall, the Lakers have been a pretty middling team this season. They have a middling record and Net Rating, and their offense has been the biggest culprit. They remain a strong defensive team, but their average of 112.0 points per 100 possessions ranks merely 24th in the league.

Of course, we have to take that with a grain of salt. This is a veteran team, so they don’t necessarily need to treat each game like a must-win. We saw this squad win the inaugural NBA Cup, posting a 4-0 record in group play and besting the Suns, Pelicans, and Pacers in the knockout stages. They didn’t have to run the toughest gauntlet, but it was a reminder of the ceiling this team possesses when they’re trying their hardest.

Dec 20, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) goes to the basket against Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

What LeBron James has accomplished in his career is absolutely mind-boggling, and little has changed in his 21st professional season.

He’s averaged 25.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game while shooting 53.9% from the field and 39.3% from 3-point range. LeBron is now the sixth person to play 21 years in the league, and he’s averaging more points than the other five guys combined.

Anthony Davis remains one of the league’s best No. 2 options, averaging 24.2 points per game while providing terrific defense. He’s yet to take home a Defensive Player of the Year Award, but that’s likely headed his way at some point in the future.

When LeBron and AD have shared the court this season, they’re outscoring opponents by +5.8 points per 100 possessions. The problem is that the rest of the roster isn’t holding up their end of the bargain.

D’Angelo Russell can score, but he’s an absolute zero on defense.

Austin Reaves is a “jack of all trades, master of none” type. And I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t know a single other player on this roster. They're counting on Taurean Prince to play a huge role at the moment, and that just doesn’t scream “NBA Finals Contender.”

The x-factor here is that this game is being played on Christmas. If this was just a regular December game, I would bet the Celtics would be bigger favorites. However, it’s no secret that LeBron does his best work with Santa watching. He’s the all-time leader in points and assists on Christmas day, and his teams have posted a 10-7 record.

Only time will tell if that matters in 2023.

Best Bet: Celtics -2.5 (-110; Caesars)

This is obviously contingent on Tatum playing, but as long as he’s active, I have no problem laying the points with the Celtics in this spot. They’re simply the better team.

There’s no doubt that LeBron and company will bring their A-game on a marquee stage, but it’s not like the Celtics don’t have something to prove themselves.

For many NBA fans, the last image they have of Boston is them losing a Game 7 on their home court to the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference Finals. This team has been unable to get over the hump, so I expect them to be highly motivated to show the casual fans how good they are.

The Celtics showed out on Christmas day last year, thumping the Bucks by a score of 139-118. Tatum had a huge performance, with his 41 points second only to Tommy Heinsohn in the Celtics’ history on Christmas.

That game was played in Boston, but if they can do that to the Bucks at home, I have full confidence they can beat the Lakers in LA.

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Top Prop: Anthony Davis First Basket Scorer (+500; FanDuel)

This prop is a Jordan Fiegleman special. The man simply cannot stop betting Davis to score first, and as far as first-basket props go, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Davis is one of the most active players in the league to start games, attempting his team’s first shot in seven of his 27 starts this season. The Lakers love to try to get their uber-talented big man involved early, so getting him at +500 or better to score first is typically a solid investment.

The Lakers are also a good bet to have the first possession in this matchup. They’ve had the first shot in 57.1% of their games this season – the seventh-best mark in the league – while the Celtics check in at No. 11. If Porzingis is unable to suit up, that would also be a significant downgrade for Boston in the center circle.

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-2.5; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Heat -1.5
Opening Total: 218.5
Betting Splits: 83% of tickets, 88% of dollars on 76ers

76ers (20-8)

+11.5 Net Rating (best in NBA)
20-8 ATS; 6-2 as road favorite
19-9 to the over (second-best in NBA)
Key Absences: Joel Embiid (out), Nicolas Batum (out), Patrick Beverley (probable), Mo Bamba (probable)

The 76ers were forced to ship a disgruntled James Harden out of town – stop me if you’ve heard that before – but the early results have been impressive. The 76ers aren’t just surviving without Harden, they’re thriving.

Joel Embiid remains the team’s focal point, and he’s having another fantastic season. The defending NBA MVP is on pace to lead the league in scoring for the third consecutive year, averaging a career-best 35.0 points through his first 2542 poi games.

He’s also averaging a career-best 6.0 assists, making him a true force on the offensive end. While Jokic still leads the league in just about every advanced metric, Embiid has managed to best him in terms of Win Shares per 48 minutes.

Dec 20, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) reacts with fans after his score against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the fourth quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The bigger development has been the improvement of Tyrese Maxey.

Maxey showed huge promise in his third season, and with Harden now out of the way, he has spread his wings in 2023. He’s averaging 25.8 points per game while shooting 46.0% from the field and 39.9% from 3-point range. He’s become a massive favorite to take home the Most Improved Player award, with his best odds checking in at -105 on BetMGM.

The rest of the 76ers’ core is solid but unspectacular. Tobias Harris is an efficient scorer as their No. 3 option. Kelly Oubre Jr. can fill it up with the best of them. Nicolas Batum and Robert Covington are strong defensive wings who can knock down open 3-pointers.

This group has propelled the 76ers to a +11.4 Net Rating, which is the best mark in the league. They may not have the same record as teams like the Celtics and Bucks, but they’re very live to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.

Heat (17-12)

+1.7 Net Rating (12th in NBA)
13-16 ATS; 6-6 ATS as underdog
15-14 to the over (10th-worst in NBA)
Key Absences: Jimmy Butler (questionable), Haywood Highsmith (questionable), Robert Covington (probable)

The Heat stumbled a bit out of the blocks this season, but they’ve dealt with some massive injuries. That’s not exactly new for Miami – their entire roster was listed on the injury report before basically every game last season – but Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have combined for just 26 games played.

Those are arguably the team’s second- and third-best players, so it’s not surprising they’ve struggled with both players sidelined.

When those two have been healthy, it’s been business as usual for the Heat. Herro, Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler have played just 137 minutes together, but they’ve posted a Net Rating of +3.3 in those minutes. That’s not an elite figure, but it’s still pretty good.

Speaking of Butler, he’s having a pretty typical Butler season: 21.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. However, his shot profile is a bit different. He’s shooting 2.3 3-pointers per game – his top mark since 2018-19 – and he’s knocking down 37.7% of them. That’s a vast improvement for someone who has shot 24.5% or worse from 3-point range in three of the past four seasons.

Unfortunately, Butler’s improved 3-point prowess has come at the expense of his 2-point efficiency. He’s knocking down just 46.2% of his shots from inside the arc after drilling 53.9% last season.

Last year’s version of the Heat relied heavily on 3-point shooting from players who were not highly regarded prospects. Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Max Strus all played roles at different times throughout the postseason.

Vincent is no longer around, but the other three players remain intact. Robinson has had the biggest impact so far this season, knocking down 43.9% of his 3-point attempts on a sizable 7.2 attempts per game.

The Heat also appear to have found another steal in Jaime Jaquez Jr.

The No. 18 pick in the 2023 Draft will likely never be a star, but he’s doing a little bit of everything in his rookie season. He’s averaging 13.0 points, 3.6 boards, and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 51.3% from the field and 38.8% from 3-point range.

Ultimately, the Heat are basically in the same boat as they have been for the past half-decade. They're a clear tier below the top teams in the East, but no one is going to want to play them come playoff time.

Best Bet: 76ers +2.5 (-110; BetMGM)

The 76ers threw us a major curveball by ruling out Embiid the night before Christmas. Not the news that I was hoping for Santa to deliver, but we persevere.

The 76ers have moved from small favorites to small underdogs without their best player, but I still think they're my preferred side. Losing Embiid is obviously a huge blow, but the 76ers have still been really good with Embiid off the floor this season. They've outscored their opponents by an average of +7.0 points per 100 possessions across 494 Embiid-less minutes, so they can survive without him.

Meanwhile, the Heat also have the potential to be shorthanded. Buttler has missed the past two games with a calf strain and is officially questionable for Christmas, so it would not be a huge shock if he's ruled out again.

The 76ers haven't got enough credit all season — which is reflected by their elite ATS record — and I don't think they're getting enough credit now. Even without Embiid, they might be better than this overrated Miami squad.

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Top Prop: De'Anthony Melton Over 3.5 assists; (+122; FanDuel)

While Embiid's absence stinks for the game itself, it does create some value with the rest of the roster in the prop market. Maxey figures to be the primary beneficiary, but all of his numbers have been juiced up significantly.

Instead, let's take a look at Melton's assist prop, which is set at a very reasonable 3.5. Melton has averaged 3.4 assists per game this season, and he's been much more productive as a distributor with Embiid off the floor. He's increased his assist rate from 15.5% to 22.4%, so he has significantly more upside than usual.

Not only is his assist prop reasonably priced, but the over is also available at a healthy +122. This prop is a slam dunk.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns (-6.0; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Suns -5.5
Opening Total: 225.5
Betting Splits: 56% of tickets, 86% of dollars on Mavericks

Mavericks (17-12)

+1.0 Net Rating (14th-best in NBA)
15-14 ATS; 2-8 ATS as underdog
19-10 to the over (fourth-best in NBA)
Key Absences: Kyrie Irving (out), Maxi Kleber (out), Josh Green (out), Dereck Lively II (questionable)

Will the Mavericks ever live up to their lofty potential? That remains to be seen, but one thing that’s certain is that they can score the ball.

They’re fifth in the league in offensive rating, averaging 118.4 points per 100 possessions. The only issue is that they’re allowing 116.9 on the defensive end. That ranks 23rd in the league, and it’s hard to be a good team when you’re that bad defensively. The only other team in the bottom 10 with a winning record is the Pacers, and they barely qualify at 13-12.

The Mavericks are led by Luka Doncic, who is in his sixth season in the league. He’s still just 24 years old, so it’s scary to think how good he’ll be when he hits his physical prime. He’s already putting up monster numbers, averaging 32.9 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.4 rebounds per game.

Dec 20, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts after injuring his hand during the second half against the LA Clippers at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Doncic is also on pace for his most efficient season as a scorer. He’s knocking down a career-best 38.4% of his 3-point attempts, which represents a huge increase from his career average (34.2%). Luka has always been a volume 3-point shooter, but for the first time in his career, he’s making those opportunities really hurt.

Kyrie Irving was supposed to be Doncic’s running mate, but he’s been limited by injuries. He’s played in just 17 games this season, and when he’s been healthy, the Mavs’ offense has hummed. They’re averaging 120.2 points per 100 possessions in those minutes, and they’ve posted a Net Rating of +4.6.

Unfortunately, it remains to be seen when Irving will return to the floor. Head coach Jason Kidd told reporters that Irving remains “without a timeline for return” on December 12. He was spotted without a walking boot on December 18 – a positive development – but it still feels like a longshot he’ll be in the lineup for Christmas.

Without Kyrie, the Mavericks are truly a one-man show. Grant Williams, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dereck Lively II, Josh Green, and Derrick Jones Jr. are the only other players averaging more than 18 minutes per game, and they’re not striking fear into the heart of anyone.

Suns (14-14)

+0.5 Net Rating (17th-best in NBA)
10-17-1 ATS; 6-12-1 ATS as favorite
16-12 to the over (13th-best in NBA)
Key Absences: Bradley Beal (out), Jusuf Nurkic (out), Josh Okogie (probable)

Is it fair to call the Suns the biggest disappointment in the league so far? They’re exactly .500 despite possessing some of the best offensive players in the league.

However, the greatest ability is availability, and the Suns’ superstars simply haven’t been available much this season. Kevin Durant has played in 24 games this season, but Devin Booker has played in 19. Bradley Beal – the team’s big offseason acquisition – has played in merely six.

The good news is that Booker is back in the lineup after missing a big chunk at the start of the year. Beal is set to miss at least two weeks – putting him on the sidelines for Christmas – but the duo of Booker and Durant can go toe-to-toe with anyone.

With both players on the floor this season, they have a Net Rating of +7.4. Their most common five-man lineup – Booker, Durant, Eric Gordon, Jusuf Nurkic, and Grayson Allen – is a whopping +25.0 across 109.8 minutes. There’s no denying that this team is good; they just need to be on the floor together more than they have been to start the year.

Outside of their Big Three, the Suns' roster is comprised of role players. That’s perfectly acceptable. Allen is knocking down 44.9% of his 3-point attempts this season, while Gordon isn’t far behind at 39.2%. Nurkic remains a force on the glass, grabbing 10.3 rebounds in just 28.5 minutes per game.

There’s a reason the Suns remain one of the betting favorites to win the NBA Finals – Durant and Booker are really, really good. Expect this team to start rolling.

Best Bet: Over 235.5 (-115; BetMGM)

I'm going to keep this one relatively simple and just take the over. After all, this game features three of the best offensive players in the entire league in Doncic, Durant, and Booker. Both of these teams are focused way more on scoring the ball than defending, which is reflected in their over/under records: they’re a combined 35-22 to the over this season.

These two squads played a few lower-scoring games last season, but that was before the acquisition of Durant. After KD joined the fray, their only regular-season game reached 256 points.

Overall, I like the idea of betting on points in this matchup.

Top Prop: Devin Booker Over 8.5 assists (+112; FanDuel)

If you haven’t been paying attention to the NBA this season, this number may seem a little odd. Booker is known as a scorer, but with CP3 now in Golden State, Booker has taken over most of the point guard duties in Phoenix. He’s flourished in that role, averaging 8.2 assists per game through his first 19 outings.

He’s only hit the over on 8.5 dimes in six contests, but getting the over at +112 in a game expected to feature plenty of scoring feels like a solid investment. It’s a solid individual matchup as well, with the Mavericks allowing the ninth-most assists to opposing point guards this season.